Updated Conference/Playoff Discussion (long)

#51
#51
I’ll be rooting for Mizzou because I think we beat Bama anyway but them taking a second L the week before we play them can only help us win that game.

Texas is toast IMO. Incredibly small chance they win out, which they have to do…

Lord no. We want Bama at 1 loss. I don't understand this wanting to them to bleed coming into our game. We have the horses to play with anyone. We would not be caring about the Bama - Mizzou game if Gilbert makes that kick vs the Dawgs so why do we care now?
 
#52
#52
Lord no. We want Bama at 1 loss. I don't understand this wanting to them to bleed coming into our game. We have the horses to play with anyone. We would not be caring about the Bama - Mizzou game if Gilbert makes that kick vs the Dawgs so why do we care now?
Respectfully disagree. Losing begets losing, winning begets winning. I want every edge possible regardless of the circumstance.
 
#53
#53
UPDATED PREDICTION (10/05/25):


SEC

Georgia (4-1,2-1) -
@ Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida, @ Mississippi St, Texas, Charlotte, @ Georgia Tech
Ole Miss (5-0, 3-0) - Washington St, @ Georgia, @ Oklahoma, South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, @ Mississippi St
Tennessee (4-1, 1-1) - Arkansas, @ Alabama, @ Kentucky, Oklahoma, New Mexico St, @ Florida, Vanderbilt
Oklahoma (5-0, 1-1) - Texas, @ South Carolina, Ole Miss, @ Tennessee, @ Alabama, Mizzou, LSU
LSU (4-1, 1-1) - South Carolina, @ Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, @ Alabama, Arkansas, Western Kentucky, @ Oklahoma
Texas A&M (5-0, 2-0) - Florida, @ Arkansas, @ LSU, @ Mizzou, South Carolina, Samford, @ Texas
Alabama (4-1, 2-0) - @ Mizzou, Tennessee, @ South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, E. Illinois, @ Auburn
Mizzou (5-0, 1-0) - Alabama, @ Auburn, @ Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, @ Oklahoma, @ Arkansas

- UGA, Ole Miss, and Tennessee all win
- With Texas losing, they are likely out unless they win out (not happening)
- This week, Texas beating Oklahoma would knock another team down for us, but really us beating undefeated Oklahoma would help us too, so a wash
- LSU losing to SC would be nice, but I doubt that happens at home
- Texas A&M losing to Florida would knock another team down and help us for the SEC title race
- We want Bama to beat Mizzou

Big Ten
Oregon (5-0, 2-0) - Indiana, @ Rutgers, Wisconsin, @ Iowa, Minnesota, USC, @ Washington
Ohio St (5-0, 2-0) - @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, Penn St, @ Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, @ Michigan
Indiana (5-0, 2-0) - @ Oregon, Michigan St, UCLA, @ Maryland, @ Penn St, Wisconsin, @ Purdue
USC (4-1, 2-1) - Michigan, @ Notre Dame, @ Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, @ Oregon, UCLA
Michigan (4-1, 2-0) - @ USC, Washington, @ Michigan St, Purdue, @ Northwestern, @ Maryland, Ohio St
Illinois (5-1, 2-1) - Ohio St, @ Washington, Rutgers, Maryland, @ Wisconsin, Northwestern

- Oregon and Ohio St are still locks
- Penn St is eliminated for all intents and purposes
- Indiana is a lock at 10-2, but if they lose a 3rd game they are done
- USC has a good shot if they win 2 of 3 vs ND, Michigan, Oregon
- Michigan has an outside shot at 10-2
- Illinois has an outside shot even though they are mediocre due to schedule
- Washington and Nebraska are still long shots


ACC
Miami (5-0, 1-0)
- Louisville, Stanford, @ SMU, Syracuse, NC State, @ Virginia Tech, @ Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech (5-0, 2-0) - Virginia Tech, @ Duke, Syracuse, @ NC State, @ Boston College, Pittsburgh, Georgia
Virginia (5-1, 3-0) - Washington St, @ UNC, @ California, Wake Forest, @ Duke, Virginia Tech

- Miami is probably a lock in the ACC title game, and the other teams losing helps their at-large bid if they go 11-2
- Ga Tech has the schedule to make the ACC title game, could be a possible at-large at 10-2
- UVA and Duke still have a legitimate shot at the ACC title game as well

Big XII
Arizona St (4-1, 2-0) -
@ Utah, Texas Tech, Houston, @ Iowa St, WVU, @ Colorado, Arizona
Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0) -Kansas, @ Arizona St, Oklahoma St, @ Kansas St, BYU, UCF, @ WVU
Iowa State (5-1, 2-1) - @ Colorado, BYU, Arizona St, @ TCU, Kansas, @ Oklahoma St
BYU (5-0, 2-0) - @ Arizona, Utah, @ Iowa St, @ Texas Tech, TCU, @ Cincinnati, UCF
Utah (4-1, 1-1) - Arizona St, @ BYU, Colorado, Cincinnati, @ Baylor, Kansas St, @ Kansas

- Tx Tech, Iowa St, Arizona St, Utah, BYU etc. are all about the same so no real advantage at this point, whoever wins road games gets to the title game

Everyone Else (The Undeserving)
Notre Dame (3-2) - NC State, USC, @ Boston College, Navy, @ Pittsburgh, Syracuse, @ Stanford

UNLV (5-0, 1-0) - Air Force, @ Boise St, New Mexico, @ Colorado St, Utah St, Hawaii, @ Nevada

Navy (5-0, 3-0) - @ Temple, FAU, @ North Texas, @ Notre Dame, USF, @ Memphis, Army
Tulane (4-1, 1-0) - East Carolina, Army, @ UTSA, @ Memphis, FAU, at Temple, Charlotte
North Texas (5-0, 1-0) - USF, UTSA, @ Charlotte, Navy, @ UAB, @ Rice, Temple
Memphis (6-0, 2-0) - Tulsa, @ UAB, USF, @ Rice, Tulane, @ East Carolina, Navy

- Notre Dame MIGHT get in at 10-2, but it's not a given; but any more losses and they are done; I don't see them winning out even with their weak schedule
- UNLV has a shot if they go undefeated, but it still might not be enough schedule wise to grab the G5 spot over the AAC champ
- The AAC Champ will go pretty much as long as they are 11-2 are better (any of the four teams could win it, they are all basically the same garbage at this point)



PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

First Round

(9) USC vs. (8) Alabama
(12) Tulane vs. (5) Tennessee
(11) Indiana vs. (6) Oklahoma
(10) Ole Miss vs. (7) Texas Tech

2nd Round
USC vs. (1) Oregon (Rose Bowl)
Tennessee vs. (4) Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)
Oklahoma vs. (3) Miami (Orange Bowl)
Ole Miss vs. (2) Georgia (Sugar Bowl)

Final 4

Tennessee vs. Oregon (Fiesta Bowl)
Miami vs. Georgia (Peach Bowl)

NC - Tennessee vs. Miami (Miami)
Going off of schedules and seeing how things are shaking out nearly half way through the season. I have

Winner of UGA vs Ole Miss vs ATM in Atlanta (sounds insane)
Oregon and Ohio St in Indianapolis
Miami vs UVA (cake schedule) in Charlotte (if uva got in the CFP at 11-2 they would be the worst team in the history of the CFP).
Texas Tech vs …Big 12 meat grinder 2nd place team
Notre Dame, tricky games w/ USC and @ Pitt are all that’s left.

I think B1G team gets #1 seed
Miami #2
SEC champ #3
B1G runner up #4
SEC runner up #5
Texas Tech #6

Can’t quite fill in 7-12 yet. Notre Dame will sneak in as a 9-11 IMO. UNLV/Memphis/Tulane could wind up as the G5 team. 4 P4 spots remain between

Tennessee
Mizzou
Bama
OU
LSU
IU
GT
Some Big 12 teams, but who knows .

It’s gonna be a wild ride until December. Hopefully we can take care of business.
 
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#54
#54
Going off of schedules and seeing how things are shaking out nearly half way through the season. I have

Winner of UGA vs Ole Miss vs ATM in Atlanta (sounds insane)
Oregon and Ohio St in Indianapolis
Miami vs UVA (cake schedule) in Charlotte (if uva got in the CFP at 11-2 they would be the worst team in the history of the CFP).
Texas Tech vs …Big 12 meat grinder 2nd place team
Notre Dame, tricky games w/ USC and @ Pitt are all that’s left.

I think B1G team gets #1 seed
Miami #2
SEC champ #3
B1G runner up #4
SEC runner up #5
Texas Tech #6

Can’t quite fill in 7-12 yet. Notre Dame will sneak in as a 9-11 IMO. UNLV/Memphis/Tulane could wind up as the G5 team. 4 P4 spots remain between

Tennessee
Mizzou
Bama
OU
LSU
IU
GT
Some Big 12 teams, but who knows .

It’s gonna be a wild ride until December. Hopefully we can take care of business.
I don’t think ND beats USC but they definitely could. Ga tech I believe has an easier schedule than UVA by a hair
 
#55
#55
I’ll be rooting for Mizzou because I think we beat Bama anyway but them taking a second L the week before we play them can only help us win that game.

Texas is toast IMO. Incredibly small chance they win out, which they have to do…
You’re on drugs. Bama isn’t losing in Tuscaloosa.
 
#59
#59
That’s not what you said. You said we’re going to beat Bama either way, like it’s a foregone conclusion. That’s different from saying they “can” win.
I said, “I’ll be rooting for Mizzou because I think we beat Bama anyway.” The context was whether the outcome of their game this weekend mattered. I do think we’re going to beat them regardless of what happens in CoMo, but that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion. It would be silly if anyone to make definitive statements about the future.
 
#60
#60
I said, “I’ll be rooting for Mizzou because I think we beat Bama anyway.” The context was whether the outcome of their game this weekend mattered. I do think we’re going to beat them regardless of what happens in CoMo, but that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion. It would be silly if anyone to make definitive statements about the future.
I wish I had your confidence but I think we lose in Tuscaloosa no matter what happens this weekend.
 
#62
#62
Lord no. We want Bama at 1 loss. I don't understand this wanting to them to bleed coming into our game. We have the horses to play with anyone. We would not be caring about the Bama - Mizzou game if Gilbert makes that kick vs the Dawgs so why do we care now?
Because he didn’t make it and we have a loss. We want all the contenders to lose any time they can. In particular, I want Bama to lose every game they play unless a Bama win somehow directly helps Tennessee.
 
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