Trade Wars and Tariffs

[BernardKingGOAT]

I’m making zero changes to my portfolio. The last change made was moving a chunk out of US equities into international equities due to the uncertainty here right now.

International stocks are ahead of the U.S. so far this year—how to add them to your portfolio

After years of outperformance, U.S. stocks are lagging behind their foreign peers. Experts say it's worth holding some of both.

www.cnbc.com

I rarely make changes with mine as well

 

[NorthDallas40]

I rarely make changes with mine as well

Selling on April 14th would have been foolish and fatal.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I’m still waiting on that list, Bobby Boucher. I’ve given Trump credit where credit was due. His policy on closing the border is his key achievement. A lot of the methods for deportation are heavy handed but his border and handling illegal immigrants has been largely positive. He’s also done some good regulatory changes.

However his international trade policy is a fk’ing joke and his lack of fiscal responsibility in that horrible ass bill is just as bad.

I guess I am somewhat sorry I hurt your feelings by calling your hero names though

Oh and on the two you mentioned the UK “deal” is a joke. The only good thing on the Vietnam policy is the pass thru penalties aimed largely at China. Guess what when that was announced I pointed to that aspect of the agreement and gave him kudos on it. That’s called calling balls and strikes. Try it some time.

Isn’t today July 12th? August 1st is 3 weeks away.

Zero tariffs on our exports to Vietnam while their’s are 20%. How is that not a good thing?

Removing the UK’s tariffs on ag products is a joke?

Heavy handed deportations? For people that broke the law as soon as they set foot on US soil? When the previous administration allowed millions in while not following our laws, it isn’t necessarily going to be pretty fixing that ****.

“Your hero”? That’s idiotic.

 

[EasternVol]

They seem to be working pretty well as net tariff revenue has gone up in the last 3 months.

We're all in it for the long term though. Today's gain can be tomorrow's debacle.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Isn’t today July 12th? August 1st is 3 weeks away.

Zero tariffs on our exports to Vietnam while their’s are 20%. How is that not a good thing?

Removing the UK’s tariffs on ag products is a joke?

Heavy handed deportations? For people that broke the law as soon as they set foot on US soil? When the previous administration allowed millions in while not following our laws, it isn’t necessarily going to be pretty fixing that ****.

“Your hero”? That’s idiotic.

Who pays those 20% tariffs on Vietnamese imports coming into the US? The importer that’s who. And they either erode their margin or pass them on to the next buyer. No it isn’t a good thing that those imports have a 20% tariff in them.

 

[EasternVol]

Do you have any evidence of US consumers price increases? 75 year old Econ text books are telling us this. But if a foreign entity is making a 40% margin on what they sell us and now they are required to split that with the Treasury then the math favors the US. If they raise their prices then their US based competition will eat their lunch. They’ll take their 20% profit (after tariffs) and like it. 20% > 0%.

What's changed in the last 75 years?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Who paid the tariffs? It can only come from two sources. Eroded margins or higher end cost. No text book needed. Both are bad for us companies.

When the foreign entities cut their prices to cover the tariffs, they do.

There are more than 2. Consumers. US companies. Foreign companies. Foreign governments.

Even if the foreign entities don’t cover the tariffs and US consumers pay more for their underwear stitched in Vietnam, that’s not necessarily bad. Half the f***ing country pays ZERO FIT. And rich consumers pay more consumption taxes or fees than the lower classes. Consumption, sales, value added, tariffs - whatever you want to call it it’s needed to work on the massive ND.

 

[NorthDallas40]

When the foreign entities cut their prices to cover the tariffs, they do.

There are more than 2. Consumers. US companies. Foreign companies. Foreign governments.

Even if the foreign entities don’t cover the tariffs and US consumers pay more for their underwear stitched in Vietnam, that’s not necessarily bad. Half the f***ing country pays ZERO FIT. And rich consumers pay more consumption taxes or fees than the lower classes. Consumption, sales, value added, tariffs - whatever you want to call it it’s needed to work on the massive ND.

Oh good lord. We get it. You’ll make up whatever hypothetical you need to to justify these idiotic tariffs. We will never agree on this. As SCV said good talk

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Who pays those 20% tariffs on Vietnamese imports coming into the US? The importer that’s who. And they either erode their margin or pass them on to the next buyer. No it isn’t a good thing that those imports have a 20% tariff in them.

The US consumers can go to domestic producers. The tariffs just offset the cheaper labor.

Communust governments will eat the tariffs if they have to. How did China nearly drive US steel and aluminum producers out of business? They took losses on their state sponsored dumping.

 

[NorthDallas40]

The US consumers can go to domestic producers. The tariffs just offset the cheaper labor.

Communust governments will eat their lunch tariffs if they have to. How did China nearly drive US steel and aluminum producers out of business? They took losses on their state sponsored dumping.

That’s a long winded way to say prices go up.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Oh good lord. We get it. You’ll make up whatever hypothetical you need to to justify these idiotic tariffs. We will never agree on this. As SCV said good talk

I don’t see any downside and a huge potential upside. Doing nothing when we have enormous leverage with access to US consumers is what’s idiotic.

I’m glad that Trump is moving the cheese. If it fails then it would be a pretty simple process to reset back to the pre-tariff, non reciprocal deals arrangements.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

That’s a long winded way to say prices go up.

Auto fill. S/b communist governments “will eat the tariffs” if they need to.

What would really cause prices to go up would be driving US manufacturers to shut down. The state sponsored trading partners are able to play the long game. Our leadership is voted on every 2, 4, and 6 years.

 

[NorthDallas40]

I don’t see any downside and a huge potential upside. Doing nothing when we have enormous leverage with access to US consumers is what’s idiotic.

I’m glad that Trump is moving the cheese. If it fails then it would be a pretty simple process to reset back to the pre-tariff, non reciprocal deals arrangements.

And I said weeks ago that this is the stupidest trade policy by a president in the last hundred years. And I still stand by that assessment. I see little upside if any and all of the needless chaos and volatility is purely negative nothing good from it.

And usage of the word “reciprocal” in any of these deals as it pertains to tariffs is patently wrong.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Auto fill. S/b communist governments “will eat the tariffs” if they need to.

What would really cause prices to go up would be driving US manufacturers to shut down. The state sponsored trading partners are able to play the long game. Our leadership is voted on every 2, 4, and 6 years.

US manufacturing isn’t competing with the majority share of imports from Vietnam. Another baseless hypothetical

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Who pays those 20% tariffs on Vietnamese imports coming into the US? The importer that’s who. And they either erode their margin or pass them on to the next buyer. No it isn’t a good thing that those imports have a 20% tariff in them.

Small cogs in a big wheel.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

The US consumers can go to domestic producers. The tariffs just offset the cheaper labor.

Communust governments will eat the tariffs if they have to. How did China nearly drive US steel and aluminum producers out of business? They took losses on their state sponsored dumping.

We have to lower our standards though, not incentivize others to raise theirs.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

I don’t see any downside and a huge potential upside. Doing nothing when we have enormous leverage with access to US consumers is what’s idiotic.

I’m glad that Trump is moving the cheese. If it fails then it would be a pretty simple process to reset back to the pre-tariff, non reciprocal deals arrangements.

And then watch our respect from the rest of the world return to Puddinhead levels.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

US manufacturing isn’t competing with the majority share of imports from Vietnam. Another baseless hypothetical

That’s because of their exploitation of workers, state sponsored and owned entities, and disregard of the environment.

No need to compete with them to make our Fruit of the Looms. Just charge them the $30B. Maybe they’ll come around and import more of our stuff. If they don’t, no problem. Just invest the proceeds wisely instead of creating more hand outs and vote buying with the new revenue.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Small cogs in a big wheel.

Oh sure sure sure …

 

[NorthDallas40]

That’s because of their exploitation of workers, state sponsored and owned entities, and disregard of the environment.

No need to compete with them to make our Fruit of the Looms. Just charge them the $30B. Maybe they’ll come around and import more of our stuff. If they don’t, no problem. Just invest the proceeds wisely instead of creating more hand outs and vote buying with the new revenue.

LMAO. As I said you’ll create whatever hypothetical you must to carry that water.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

LMAO. As I said you’ll create whatever hypothetical you must to carry that water.

Your derangement affliction drives you to triple down on the water carrying nonsense.

BTW, those are factual comments - not created hypotheticals. They pay workers $20/day. Communist governments produce at losses to get market share and damage the competition. The Pacific garbage patch flows eastward - it’s not originating on this side. 20% of $140B is around $30B.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Your derangement affliction drives you to triple down on the water carrying nonsense.

BTW, those are factual comments - not created hypotheticals. They pay workers $20/day. Communist governments produce at losses to get market share and damage the competition. The Pacific garbage patch flows eastward - it’s not originating on this side. 20% of $140B is around $30B.

So was mine. We aren’t competing in those markets. And they are never coming back either. I know their labor is cheap. It’s also focused in low tech markets labor intensive not competing with the US.

By all means keep playing the TDS stupidity. It’s lazy and ineffective and I get a huge laugh out if it.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Your derangement affliction drives you to triple down on the water carrying nonsense.

BTW, those are factual comments - not created hypotheticals. They pay workers $20/day. Communist governments produce at losses to get market share and damage the competition. The Pacific garbage patch flows eastward - it’s not originating on this side. 20% of $140B is around $30B.

The only high tech market I can think they have any possible overlap is electronics manufacturing. Which also has China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan etc…

And that market is only labor intensive at final assembly. Circuit card manifacturing is highly automated due to the fine pitch components. Chip making is fully automated. And that industry was coming back to a large degree before the tariff stupidity.

 

[NCFisher]

Who paid the tariffs? It can only come from two sources. Eroded margins or higher end cost. No text book needed. Both are bad for us companies.

It can also come from foreign exporters lowering prices Japanese carmakers slash export prices to U.S. to offset tariff hit
It can also result in re-shoring or relocating production, and sourcing alternate suppliers.

We should also perpetually seek to not further grow China; they stand in stark contrast to the assertion that free markets export democracy and create friends. That may increase certain costs for some time for some things, and we should display the foresight to accept that as necessity.

 

[NorthDallas40]

It can also come from foreign exporters lowering prices Japanese carmakers slash export prices to U.S. to offset tariff hit
It can also result in re-shoring or relocating production, and sourcing alternate suppliers.

We should also perpetually seek to not further grow China; they stand in stark contrast to the assertion that free markets export democracy and create friends. That may increase certain costs for some time for some things, and we should display the foresight to accept that as necessity.

That isn’t sustainable. Automotive is a hugely competitive market. Also that is TGO’s go to excuse, that exporters will just eat it. Personally I find that laughable as that really implies to me they aren’t in a competitive market and can set their margins. For another example recently Ford stated they’ve paid over a billion in tariffs this year and the same article I believe stated they have the most domestic production.

From your article

The data add to signs that Japanese automakers are trying to avoid a major price increase to remain competitive in the U.S., even after Trump began to impose 25% auto tariffs in early April. The flip side of the move is it raises concerns over companies’ profitability and whether they can continue to keep raising wages — a key component of the BOJ’s sustainable inflation goal

Also we’ve beat this Vietnam single case to death. I’d like to see the growing list of defined deals resulting from these tariffs. We’ve had three and a half months now