Trade Wars and Tariffs

#2,877
#2,877
05_never_again said:
If you are truly a long term investor (many people will claim that they are but get too affected by short-term movements, both up and down), then it shouldn't affect your ability to retire or otherwise achieve whatever long-term goals you have.

There is a wealth effect though. If you have a stock portfolio that you aren't touching for 30 years but you see 20% of its value disappear in a few weeks time, a lot of people's consumer behavior will change. Even if they don't consciously aware of it.
Click to expand...
But only for those that have investments of which the majority doesn't..outside of retirements which are long term anyway. For common man all the market chaos wouldn't be felt till it hits the shelves. ..it felt like a lot of MSM driven panic...while Trump didn't clarify his plan..IYO could this all have been a forced correction?
 
#2,878
#2,878
Ashevolle said:
Never watched msnbc. So there you are. You're a political hack because I've voiced my displeasure with Trump engaging in insider trading and market manipulation so you run to his aid and call me a leftist hack in response. Sounds like you're a political hack to me. I wouldn't be surprised if you rock a MAGA hat to Shoneys.
Click to expand...
if you have been reading along ….I too think there’s questionable activity with this trade war. That’s not what makes you a partisan hack. It’s your lack of concern for democrats engaging in the same and often worse behavior than Trump that you never seem to have an issue with.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Carl Pickens, Vol since 77, AM64 and 1 other person
#2,879
#2,879
whodeycin85 said:
But only for those that have investments of which the majority doesn't..outside of retirements which are long term anyway. For common man all the market chaos wouldn't be felt till it hits the shelves. ..it felt like a lot of MSM driven panic...while Trump didn't clarify his plan..IYO could this all have been a forced correction?
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. The wealth effect is powerful. Like I was saying, seeing 20% or more of your nest egg vaporize in 4 weeks has a psychological effect, even if you aren't touching that money for a long time. Maybe you defer certain purchases, particularly large purchases.

The "tariffs are on, tariffs are off" chaos is also wreaking havoc on any kind of corporate strategic planning (capital investment, hiring, etc.), particularly for companies that import or export any kind of inputs or finished products. Corporate purse strings tighten when there is uncertainty. Even if we never get to the point where there are large numbers of layoffs, if you think your job could be in jeopardy, or you don't get the raise or bonus you expected, it affects consumer behavior. People can tell when their employer tightens things up and it makes people nervous.

Even if what goes on markets never ends up directly on Main Street, it affects Main Street in all kinds of indirect ways.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BartW, njvols, DuckInAPen and 1 other person
#2,881
#2,881
NorthDallas40 said:
Ok so wait. Your first paragraph isn’t congruent with the second. If we all knew valuations were excessively high then why would we expect an immediate run back up?

Look I was also saying we were over due for a correction which history shows is healthy for another run up ( I got an email from my financial advisor showing just that based on historical data) however the timing is TBD. And with the tariffs only “on pause” the reoccurrence of the trigger and repeat is still on the table.

Best case Trump focuses all of his grievances on China and leaves all of the other misdirected grievances on pause for eternity
Click to expand...

First paragraph wasn’t a prediction.

My thoughts are that 2025 will be flat for equities. Maybe until Q4 anyway. After today, where are we? Minus 5-10% over the last 2 weeks? Also, with the 30x multiple it is going to take earnings growth to drive market averages and stocks en masse higher. That might not start happening until 2027, but markets are reactionary and forward looking. So meaningful stock appreciation might commence next Q1 or Q2 well ahead of potential positive earnings growth being published.

But there’s also interest rates. And tax cuts. And ND growth (and ND growth relative to GDP/GNP growth). And spending cuts. And changing Social Security variables. And Medicare negotiations. And DOGE inspired program and department closures. Might could be a whole lot going on other than a perceived crash triggered by big p****r waving at trading partners and adversaries.
 
#2,882
#2,882
Ashevolle said:
Never watched msnbc. So there you are. You're a political hack because I've voiced my displeasure with Trump engaging in insider trading and market manipulation so you run to his aid and call me a leftist hack in response. Sounds like you're a political hack to me. I wouldn't be surprised if you rock a MAGA hat to Shoneys.
Click to expand...
Pretty awesome. Your newfound integrity for insider trading. You got TDS but have no issue with Nancy Pelosi in the visa insider trader scandal.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: rekinhavoc and AM64
#2,884
#2,884
I was never a fan of the threatened tariff increases.

That said, I did not see any of our trading partners lining up to negotiate deals with us that would be to our advantage until the megalomaniac in the WH forced them to the table.

I said at the outset that, despite my opposition to his tactics, I would celebrate if good resulted. Still a long way away, but good is nearer today than yesterday.

If a weeks volatility in the market was too much to bear, you probably shouldn't invest in stock.

I bought a house in 2006. By 2009, that house was worth 60% what I paid for it. I didn't blame Obama. Know what else I did not do? Sell the house....Now it is worth 300% what I paid for it, 400% the bottom of the market. Only a fool would have thought this stock drop would be the first in American history where stocks did not have a bounce back.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Volsdeep4, AM64, CagleMtnVol and 1 other person
#2,887
#2,887
05_never_again said:
Not necessarily. The wealth effect is powerful. Like I was saying, seeing 20% or more of your nest egg vaporize in 4 weeks has a psychological effect, even if you aren't touching that money for a long time. Maybe you defer certain purchases, particularly large purchases.

The "tariffs are on, tariffs are off" chaos is also wreaking havoc on any kind of corporate strategic planning (capital investment, hiring, etc.), particularly for companies that import or export any kind of inputs or finished products. Corporate purse strings tighten when there is uncertainty. Even if we never get to the point where there are large numbers of layoffs, if you think your job could be in jeopardy, or you don't get the raise or bonus you expected, it affects consumer behavior. People can tell when their employer tightens things up and it makes people nervous.

Even if what goes on markets never ends up directly on Main Street, it affects Main Street in all kinds of indirect ways.
Click to expand...
The markets value predictability more than anything and I don’t foresee much of that in the next 4 years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 05_never_again and FLVOL_79
#2,891
#2,891
jmacvols1 said:
I didn't see that the global economy collapse.

Stock market made a correction as it always does with a some panic selling involved.

Trump has isolated Chynah while placing a 10% baseline tarriff increase across the board and has other countries negotiating new tarriff deals with the US.

the only "big" thing that happen was a few per cent drop in the market, the economy is still doing well under Trump,,,inflation down to 1.22% according to truflation.

You're up $6000 dollars in the process...what's not to like?
Click to expand...

The increased inflation heading our way for one.
 
#2,893
#2,893
Orangeslice13 said:
if you have been reading along ….I too think there’s questionable activity with this trade war. That’s not what makes you a partisan hack. It’s your lack of concern for democrats engaging in the same and often worse behavior than Trump that you never seem to have an issue with.
Click to expand...
We'll I'm not a big fan of the democratic party either. But comparatively Trump worries me a lot more than Biden did. Not my idea of a political hack but you're free to form your own opinions. Your logic seems very shaky though that I must ve a hack if you don't deem I complain equally about both sides
 
#2,895
#2,895
Ashevolle said:
Well I'm not a big fan of the democratic party either. But comparatively Trump worries me a lot more than Biden did. Not my idea of a political hack but you're free to form your own opinions. Your logic seems very shaky though that I must ve a hack if you don't deem I complain equally about both sides
Click to expand...
Easy, Biden didn’t do anything. Welcome to new found territory of a President not allowing you to be taken advantage of.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rekinhavoc
#2,897
#2,897
Majors said:
The smart ones bought the dip and made out great. Confusing times being a liberal.
Click to expand...
I get what Trump is wanting/trying to do, but not enthused with his method to the madness. I feel there were other ways to approach this. Having said that, I was more than happy to put a fair amount of dry powder to work yesterday and this morning. Can’t control what one person does, but we can control (somewhat) how we (consumers/investors) respond to it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: volbound1700, AM64, Majors and 1 other person
#2,898
#2,898
NorthDallas40 said:
Oh it’s guaranteed the market will be back it always comes back. Because the time it doesn’t the world is done with the current economic system. Back to bartering.

Or if instead you are saying the tariffs will be back then we’re all screwed anyway.
Click to expand...
My goodness the hyperbole is strong with you on this. Calm down.

I have never seen this much panic in one room since watching The Big Short.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UT_Dutchman and hog88
#2,900
#2,900
Y'all don't think it's quite interesting that just yesterday there was a report about a 90 day pause only for the administration to come out and say no. Then about 26 hours later...bam. doesn't matter if it's a D or R they are lying to us.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top