Trade Wars and Tariffs

#2,826
#2,826
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It’s not going to take many more of these +4.75% days for me to get it all back and then some. 2025 isn’t supposed to be a big year for stock gains.

Markets have been on a run since the first debate. Again, the 30x S&P multiple indicated that a correction or crash had to be coming since earnings aren’t likely to accelerate until perhaps 2027. Equity markets were looking for any excuse to fall. I don’t think that it would be good policy to let equity prices drive the timing of when to address fixing trade issues, China, illegal border crossings, drug and human trafficking, etc. Trump’s timeline is the mid terms so dragging this out to about a year from now translates to a near guarantee of losing the Congressional majority.
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Ok so wait. Your first paragraph isn’t congruent with the second. If we all knew valuations were excessively high then why would we expect an immediate run back up?

Look I was also saying we were over due for a correction which history shows is healthy for another run up ( I got an email from my financial advisor showing just that based on historical data) however the timing is TBD. And with the tariffs only “on pause” the reoccurrence of the trigger and repeat is still on the table.

Best case Trump focuses all of his grievances on China and leaves all of the other misdirected grievances on pause for eternity
 
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#2,829
#2,829
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Is health insurance covered at 100%?

NPR: UPS says that by the end of the new contract, the average UPS full-time driver will make about $170,000 annually in pay and benefits.
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Yes we get 100% have a small deductible we have to meet medical 80% dental and eye. Family is covered. I made $110,000 last year most ever working 11hr days. Don’t think I used $60,000 in insurance last year. Thankful we have insurance though
 
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#2,832
#2,832
SpaceCoastVol said:
They'll be back. You aren't paying attention
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Oh it’s guaranteed the market will be back it always comes back. Because the time it doesn’t the world is done with the current economic system. Back to bartering.

Or if instead you are saying the tariffs will be back then we’re all screwed anyway.
 
#2,833
#2,833
NorthDallas40 said:
The peak and bottom happened after Trump took office. That is why I pointed out the 52wk peak and bottom was owned by Trump.
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the last few days the drop was more of a correction...

s&p finished up 9.52% ...s&p on 4/2 was about 5500 closed today at 5456

nasdaq up 12.16% ...4/2 NASDAQ was about 17,500 closed today at 17,124

the Trump strategy worked.....China is a mess, 10% tarriff across the board, new tarriff negotiations ongoing...

...Trump said to nations at the beginning of this to not retaliate and you will come out well, retaliate and you will be sorry. China was baited and retailiated twice now is isolated and their economy, market, yuan is a mess....

...and the leftists beat again by trump...

good day all around





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#2,834
#2,834
NorthDallas40 said:
Ok so wait. Your first paragraph isn’t congruent with the second. If we all knew valuations were excessively high then why would we expect an immediate run back up?

Look I was also saying we were over due for a correction which history shows is healthy for another run up ( I got an email from my financial advisor showing just that based on historical data) however the timing is TBD. And with the tariffs only “on pause” the reoccurrence of the trigger and repeat is still on the table.

Best case Trump focuses all of his grievances on China and leaves all of the other misdirected grievances on pause for eternity
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Is a market correction considered between a 10 to 20% drop. But not over 20%? If so did the markets go beyond the 20% correction?
 
#2,838
#2,838
NorthDallas40 said:
I understand every word you are saying. BUT the catalyst was solely Trump’s absolutely moronic tariff policy. The market is always waiting on the next pull back when it recovers from the current one. This pullback was completely triggered by a moronic tariff policy. Yes it really is that simple. And if we adhere to your valuations then we can’t expect to recover to pre idiot trigger levels anytime soon.
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The catalyst for the huge declines on 4/3, 4/4, and 4/7 was tariffs. The S&P had already drawn down 11% before that though, and had been flat since mid-December.
 
#2,840
#2,840
whodeycin85 said:
Is a market correction considered between a 10 to 20% drop. But not over 20%? If so did the markets go beyond the 20% correction?
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Those are all non-technical terms made up by the media. Don't get too hung up on them.

A correction is generally considered to be a 10% drawdown from the most recent high. A bear market is generally thought to be a 20%+ drawdown from the most recent high.
 
#2,841
#2,841
05_never_again said:
The catalyst for the huge declines on 4/3, 4/4, and 4/7 was tariffs. The S&P had already drawn down 11% before that though, and had been flat since mid-December.
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Agreed. However we don’t know where the true bottom was on the tariff policy because we hadn’t hit bottom yet. I did hear some analyst talk today that they saw classic indicators that a bottom wasn’t far off but obviously couldn’t say when or what the bottom would be.
 
#2,843
#2,843
appvol said:
Yes we get 100% have a small deductible we have to meet medical 80% dental and eye. Family is covered. I made $110,000 last year most ever working 11hr days. Don’t think I used $60,000 in insurance last year. Thankful we have insurance though
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Are you line haul or package delivery?
 
#2,844
#2,844
05_never_again said:
Those are all non-technical terms made up by the media. Don't get too hung up on them.

A correction is generally considered to be a 10% drawdown from the most recent high. A bear market is generally thought to be a 20%+ drawdown from the most recent high.
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Ok thank you btw....I'm asking for understanding and to see if I follow correctly or not....inflation under Biden over 4 years was roughly 20% total (government math)...which was a combo of an artificially increased by COVID spending by Trump and Biden and spending in general by Biden. So would the market increase that much or more in therapy??? And if so what happens when the inflation cools...would the market make a correction?
 
#2,845
#2,845
05_never_again said:
Those are all non-technical terms made up by the media. Don't get too hung up on them.

A correction is generally considered to be a 10% drawdown from the most recent high. A bear market is generally thought to be a 20%+ drawdown from the most recent high.
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Oh they’re very common terms and we were piling on in this forum when Biden’s admin aided by the media attempted to redefine the term for a bear market. I absolutely was party to that as it was deserved. And I’m pretty sure the person you responded too was piling on also.
 
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#2,848
#2,848
NorthDallas40 said:
Agreed. However we don’t know where the true bottom was on the tariff policy because we hadn’t hit bottom yet. I did hear some analyst talk today that they saw classic indicators that a bottom wasn’t far off but obviously couldn’t say when or what the bottom would be.
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Nobody knows where the bottom would have been.

IMO, the only reason the markets weren't 30-35% off of the highs is because they were assuming that the tariffs would get paused or removed at some point, which is exactly what ended up happening. If they get put back on, I think that is still a possible scenario later in the year. That would put the S&P somewhere around 4000, which sounds horrible but would just be a return to where we were in March 2023.
 
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