Trade Wars and Tariffs

#952
#952
lawgator1 said:
That's why I bought some 2x short term leverage the Dow. Trump will give them a sugar high for a bit tomorrow, to claim how brilliant and smart his plan is.
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WSJ reporting that Trump is doing a last minute redraw of tariff plans to soften things notably. He hasn't settled on $hit. Shocking.

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#954
#954
McDad said:
We are running over the same old ground. I understand your words. I don't understand the application of your words.

Let me summarize and maybe you can tell me where I am not understanding.

Mr Worker lives in a remote area. Mr Worker can labor in a field. Mr Worker can labor in a factory making cheap goods. Mr Worker is paid wages in both jobs. Mr Worker has few options to spend his earnings. Mr Worker would face this plight whether he works in the field or in the factory. If Mr Worker chooses to work in the factory because he judges it to be better work, how is Mr Worker harmed by working in that remote factory as opposed the remote field?
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I don't know that he is harmed. Which is why I never said I would restrict his choice.

I am saying is there is more to consider, as the argument as its been presented takes an overly simplified outlook.
 
#955
#955
LouderVol said:
I don't know that he is harmed. Which is why I never said I would restrict his choice.

I am saying is there is more to consider, as the argument as its been presented takes an overly simplified outlook.
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Can we discuss the "few options to spend his money"?
 
#956
#956
McDad said:
Can we discuss the "few options to spend his money"?
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sure.

In these sweat shops the product doesn't end up in a local market, and usually there is no or limited growth of any supporting "cottage industries". so the sweat shop is not providing new/better goods to the local community. while taking workers away from the past mom/pop places or the fields.

so whatever limited options were there to spend money on, have been further decreased. demand has either stayed the same, or increased with increased wages; while the supply has decreased. which means either prices rise, or they have to import from elsewhere, which doesn't much help the local community. but the inflation will hit the entire community, not just the workers.

so the worker may not see an increase in the actual standard of living, because the cost of living the same life has gone up.

definitely doesn't apply to every sweat shop, but it happens enough to really call into question how much of net gain is it for the local workers.
 
#957
#957
LouderVol said:
sure.

In these sweat shops the product doesn't end up in a local market, and usually there is no or limited growth of any supporting "cottage industries". so the sweat shop is not providing new/better goods to the local community. while taking workers away from the past mom/pop places or the fields.

so whatever limited options were there to spend money on, have been further decreased. demand has either stayed the same, or increased with increased wages; while the supply has decreased. which means either prices rise, or they have to import from elsewhere, which doesn't much help the local community. but the inflation will hit the entire community, not just the workers.

so the worker may not see an increase in the actual standard of living, because the cost of living the same life has gone up.

definitely doesn't apply to every sweat shop, but it happens enough to really call into question how much of net gain is it for the local workers.
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I understand much more clearly. Thanks.

I disagree with your premise and predictions. My gut instinct is the rising economic tide raises all ships. People, and the commerce they engage in, migrate towards the money. If (or when) the factory closes, especially if that is the main employment in the area, is when they would experience what you're describing.
 
#958
#958
lawgator1 said:
That's why I bought some 2x short term leverage the Dow. Trump will give them a sugar high for a bit tomorrow, to claim how brilliant and smart his plan is.
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I don’t understand. There are ETPs that leverage equities 2x. There are ETPs that mirror leveraging a short position in equities. But you’re framing your purchase as the former. Do you mean that you’re only planning on holding a leveraged ETP for a short term swing?

Why not buy calls or sell puts on DDM if you are expecting a short term move upward?
 
#961
#961
mrorange211 said:
What do you think about this timing?
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After hours session could have a record volume.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence. It does allow time for the move, in either direction, to settle down before the regular (high volume) session to commence Thursday morning.

I haven’t looked, but I bet that the volatility component in options and vix/vix ETPs are very pricey right now.
 
#962
#962
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don’t understand. There are ETPs that leverage equities 2x. There are ETPs that mirror leveraging a short position in equities. But you’re framing your purchase as the former. Do you mean that you’re only planning on holding a leveraged ETP for a short term swing?

Why not buy calls or sell puts on DDM if you are expecting a short term move upward?
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Sorry, yes, the ETFs that multiply, or leverage, are usually 1 day holding.

I'm a newbie on options. And those aren't the short bump I expected when Trump predictably went in a market-friendly direction.
 
#963
#963
lawgator1 said:
Sorry, yes, the ETFs that multiply, or leverage, are usually 1 day holding.

I'm a newbie on options. And those aren't the short bump I expected when Trump predictably went in a market-friendly direction.
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I think that the trading range on the DJIA is narrow enough to break the rules on short term holding periods for the leveraged ETFs. At least with the bullish ones after the recent pullback in equities. A 3x Bear theme isn’t something I’d want to hold LT.

I’ve held CURE for years.
 
#966
#966
You'll never get people to bring manufacturing back to the USA. We're a service based economy now and, well, unions. Doesnt make sense to make anything here. Tariffs sure AF aren't going to help.
 
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#967
#967
FLVOL_79 said:
You'll never get people to bring manufacturing back to the USA. We're a service based economy now and, well, unions. Doesnt make sense to make anything here. Tariffs sure AF aren't going to help.
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There's still a lot of manufacturing in the US and yeah, we can bring more back. Textiles, clothing and stuff like that, no that isn't coming back but heavy, tech and OEM manufacturing can.
 
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#971
#971
hog88 said:
There's still a lot of manufacturing in the US and yeah, we can bring more back. Textiles, clothing and stuff like that, no that isn't coming back but heavy, tech and OEM manufacturing can.
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34% proposed tariff on Taiwan appears to be aimed directly at TSMC to get them to manufacture all wafers and chips for the US market here (likely at their mammoth AZ facility).
 
#973
#973
jmacvols1 said:
......and Canada blinked....happy liberation day..🎆🎇.....the art of the deal





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Can you explain the art of this deal? As I understand it, they are only talking about removing recent retaliatory tariffs against Trump. It would return us to where trade rules were with Canada in December 2024.
 
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