Top Ten

[dduncan4163]

Especially for us. We have had so many 5 star busts over the years, it’s unbelievable. I think that mostly has to do with poor coaching.

Exactly for the first time since Majors walked the sidelines I think we got superior coaching. We're not gonna find ways to loose. I never pick us against Florida but I believe we hammer them this season. I don't think I've ever felt more confident going into this game.

Vols 45
Fla 27

 

[sunnyvol79]

That UGA game will be closer than you think. There is a talent gap still but Heup does more with less. Not saying we beat UGA but it will be a 4 quarter game this year mark my words.

Hope your right. If you remember last year we could’ve scored 25 to 28 on them. We were in the red zone like 6 or 7 times to Georgia’s credit they did stop us on 4th down 3 or 4 times inside the 20 yard line. I want a win over the Dawgs about as bad as I do over Bama. We are beating Florida this season book it!

 

[tennesseepride84]

That UGA game will be closer than you think. There is a talent gap still but Heup does more with less. Not saying we beat UGA but it will be a 4 quarter game this year mark my words.

I agree with this wholeheartedly and especially if there’s an ounce of a drop off from UGAs last year’s defensive performance, it’s hard to replicate that kind of season with all the guys they lost in the draft.

 

[MemphisVol77]

Question. It seems to me if we can recruit a top ten class every year we can compete at the highest level. What do you think?

Of course we could in a hypothetical that includes coaching consistency and positive team culture.

When we look at our post Fulmer coaching carousel (Kiffin/Dooley/Butch/Pruitt/Heupel), it's hard to argue any of them had enough tenure to establish consistency other than Butch*. As I perceive it, Butch clearly allowed the most toxic team culture which left him incapable of overcoming his coaching deficiencies in spite of 15/16's composite talent.

Hopefully Heupel is our man because we need more than recruiting at a top 10 level to compete at the highest level.
Even if we have #9 or #10 ranked recruiting classes the next 3 years, we're still noticeably behind AL/GA in talent going into 2025. That leaves no margin for error after playing AL/GA even if we only lose by a point to them. We'll still face another 2-4 teams a year that are closer to us in talent than we are to AL/GA.

So how does Heupel overcome starting the seasons with almost 2 guaranteed losses? IMHO a 8-4 regular season in 2022, then a 9-3 regular season (8-4 if we punch up in a bowl to finish 9-4) in 2023 keeps the momentum going. Then 2024 becomes his penultimate make or break season.
2024 he'll be judged on style points as much as his record. He'll need to put away the majority of lesser teams by the early 4th qt. If we finish the regular season 9-3, in at least one of those losses to GA/AL he'll have to have fielded a team that fought like the 3rd monkey trying to get on Noah's Ark before succumbing in triple overtime.....

So yeah, if we recruit a top 10 class every year we can be in position to play at the highest level if the rest of our foundation is in place, but we'll still need to punch up to maintain or advance to a point where we're consistently closer to a top 5 class than a top 10.



*In not suggesting any of them should have been given longer.

 

[OneVolNation]

Need at least top 5 consistently.

 

[hUTch2002]

60% of 5 stars are drafted. 3% of 3 stars are drafted.

You sure about 60%? That number seems way too high.

 

[SonOfGodVolforlife]

By all means go look at the last 8-10 national champions and tell me how many 3* they had making a huge impact vs 4* and 5*.....there is a REASON the same teams are there year in and year out

Exactly, the reason theirs more 3 stars, is bc theirs more of them compared to 4-5 stars.

 

[stolitonic]

Never forget that the majority of NFL players were 3 star recruits in college.

Development is huge in college and the 5 star bust is not that uncommon.

This is true.

Something else which is true, a higher % of 5 stars end up getting drafted than 3 stars.

Another fact that will blow your mind-a higher % of 4 stars end up getting drafted than 3 stars.

Yes, development is huge in college but a Ferrari can be "developed" much easier than an 89 Yugo.

 

[Devo182]

Yes.

Our offensive scheme is too elite.

#7-#10 classes would have us like OU essentially. Very niiice and an outside shot of making a full run like LSU did. Which could then propel us to top 5 classes and even better things.

 

[Devo182]

This is true.

Something else which is true, a higher % of 5 stars end up getting drafted than 3 stars.

Another fact that will blow your mind-a higher % of 4 stars end up getting drafted than 3 stars.

Yes, development is huge in college but a Ferrari can be "developed" much easier than an 89 Yugo.

Right.

The other person's argument is silly.

It's like saying more 18-80 year olds have a 150+ iq than 81+ year olds.

Well no shiz...there are way way way more people in the 1st demographic.

I hope those folks aren't running large, important orgs. Basic analysis 101.

 

[chattaboogie]

Right.

The other person's argument is silly.

It's like saying more 18-80 year olds have a 150+ iq than 81+ year olds.

Well no shiz...there are way way way more people in the 1st demographic.

I hope those folks aren't running large, important orgs. Basic analysis 101.

It continues to blow my mind whenever I see the “more three stars in the NFL” argument. It’s common sense and people just can’t seem to grasp it.

 

[EconVol92]

This is true.

Something else which is true, a higher % of 5 stars end up getting drafted than 3 stars.

Another fact that will blow your mind-a higher % of 4 stars end up getting drafted than 3 stars.

Yes, development is huge in college but a Ferrari can be "developed" much easier than an 89 Yugo.

I don’t disagree with what your saying, but my point is that not all factories are equal. What if this 3 star came from a substandard factory that did not have the quality of coaches or facilities that the 4 star did? Is it not possible that the 3 star could have been a 4 or 5 star with all things being equal? If they go to a program like ours the training field will be equal and there could be greater growth with that 3 star.
I know that is not always the norm, but we have had some real busts from 5 stars especially along both the defensive and offensive lines.

 

[LWSVOL]

Question. It seems to me if we can recruit a top ten class every year we can compete at the highest level. What do you think?

need top 5 to be able to compete in this conference just to get to Atlanta and the SECCG. Will be even more of a requirement once Texas and OU start.

Playing in Atlanta gives you a chance to get into playoffs under current structure. No one knows what the structure will be like in 3 years or less.

forgot the most important part. Top 5 doesn't matter unless you develop them.

 

[LWSVOL]

I would almost be willing to wager we get one of them this year. Almost.

keep your wager under a dollar

 

[OrangeTsar]

Recruiting in top 10 gets you in the hunt and gets you to the top in a season where you get all the breaks and bounces in your favor. Bama and the teams finishing in the top 3 year after year accumulate enough talent to be able to survive bad breaks and bounces. Until we get to that level, we will need luck, especially against the big 3 on our schedule every season

 

[OrangeTsar]

Especially for us. We have had so many 5 star busts over the years, it’s unbelievable. I think that mostly has to do with poor coaching.

Poor evaluation too. A five star rating doesn’t tell you a thing about a kids work ethic, leadership ability, and Willingness to be a team player over a superstar. Also, it says nothing about how a kid fits into your scheme and playbook

 

[AM64]

Question. It seems to me if we can recruit a top ten class every year we can compete at the highest level. What do you think?

Depends on whether the hype understands he needs more defensive players than offensive players. You can put up lots of points with a hype offense; but if 2/3 or more of your game is defense, then somebody has to stop the other guys ... and that gets tougher as the minutes add up. Tired of seeing great offensive recruiting numbers and mediocre defensive ones. Just how many flashy receivers do you need, and what do they get you when you really need to stop the other offense? Remember Purdue and a couple of other games.

 

[lawgator1]

In the next ten years NIL will change all of the usual metrics in the sense that, prior to NIL, you could gain momentum. Some schools, like Alabama, could maintain it with their success. Win and you get more five stars next year. And on and on.

But NIL will allow teams with the wealthiest benefactors to surge here and there and interrupt it. Look at Miami. The ultimate also ran in the last 20 years. They got a guy giving NIL deals to everyone in sight. Flipping commits with it. Buying a team.

What we are used to with college football is simply done now. Never to return.

 

[sjt18]

Top 10 gives an elite coach a chance. Is Heupel an elite coach?

 

[sjt18]

In the next ten years NIL will change all of the usual metrics in the sense that, prior to NIL, you could gain momentum. Some schools, like Alabama, could maintain it with their success. Win and you get more five stars next year. And on and on.

But NIL will allow teams with the wealthiest benefactors to surge here and there and interrupt it. Look at Miami. The ultimate also ran in the last 20 years. They got a guy giving NIL deals to everyone in sight. Flipping commits with it. Buying a team.

What we are used to with college football is simply done now. Never to return.

Not wrong but market forces will eventually discipline NIL.

Let's say that Mauigoa becomes a good but not great OL. Potentially someone wasted $3 million. Money that can't be given to someone who actually performs. That kid sees what's happened and hits the portal to see if someone will offer him a good NIL. In time, the risk/reward assessments for NIL will get a lot better.

 

[lawgator1]

Not wrong but market forces will eventually discipline NIL.

Let's say that Mauigoa becomes a good but not great OL. Potentially someone wasted $3 million. Money that can't be given to someone who actually performs. That kid sees what's happened and hits the portal to see if someone will offer him a good NIL. In time, the risk/reward assessments for NIL will get a lot better.

Respectfully disagree. The NIL contracts are top short term for a player to treat it like free agency. Looking for the next pay day cannot be good for college football as we know it.

 

[Mccage]

That's because there are WAY more 3 stars every year than 5 stars and 4 stars. There are usually 30-35 five stars, 250-300 four stars and over 1,000 three stars every year. 20 years of data has shown that the odds of a 5 star making the NFL are higher than a 4 star and a 3 star's odds and the odds of a 4 star making the NFL are higher than a 3 star's odds. Absolutely no one argues that the recruiting rankings are infallible, i.e. that every 5 star turns out to be good or that no 3 star can have a great NFL career, but two decades worth of data shows the rankings are valid and the consistently good teams have highly ranked players. You are pretty much always going to be better off with a class of 25 four stars, than a class of 25 three stars.

Can you link us that data?

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Can you link us that data?

You can count the number of composite 5 stars, 4 stars and 3 stars annually going back quite a ways here:

2023 Top Football Recruits

Here's analysis on 5 stars having better odds of being drafted than 4 stars, etc.

Do stars predict a recruit’s success?

How recruiting rankings fare projecting future NFL Draft picks

On the correlation between recruiting at a high level and winning national championships, etc.:

Blue-Chip Ratio 2021: The 16 teams who can win a national title

Why Football Recruiting Rankings Matter

 

[Mccage]

Hope your right. If you remember last year we could’ve scored 25 to 28 on them. We were in the red zone like 6 or 7 times to Georgia’s credit they did stop us on 4th down 3 or 4 times inside the 20 yard line. I want a win over the Dawgs about as bad as I do over Bama. We are beating Florida this season book it!

Over a year ago the majority didn't think we would win 4 games. Most was hoping for a 3 to 4 year turn around . I'm still thinking that's the case. Florida still has at least the same or maybe more talent than us. We sure don't need to underestimate BIlly Napier, he can Coach. I still got my foot on the brakes but my foot is getting a little lighter.

 

[fatdawg]

I do think UT can hang its hat on the Clemson model. I realize Clemson did not have 2-4 teams in their conference with higher recruiting rankings back in 2012 to 2015 like UT does. But they recruited at about an average rank of 10, and had an elite QB in Deshaun Watson. When you have a QB that good as long as you have very good talent, maybe not elite at all levels but very good, your team you has a shot against anybody.

More importantly Clemson turned their runner-up season in 2015 and the natty in 2016 into momentum for top 5 classes after that including Trevor Lawrence obviously.

I think if Nico turns out like most think he will getting top 10 ranked talent around him will turn into a lot of wins, which in turn will turn into higher recruiting classes.

Obviously as a UGA fan I hope this doesn't happen (lol) but I kinda think it will, eventually. I don't know when or if a natty will happen but UT is heading up.