Third down for Dobbs

[VOL 4 Life 83]

I wouldn't trade Josh for anyone in the country but I cannot promote he has the most talent of people playing that position in CFB. Watson? I'm not convinced. Josh is talented and has plenty of it but more "talented" than Kelly at Ole Miss? I'm not sure I could cosign that for only one example.

Josh has done a lot for the university and for football in general. He is a class act, one-of-a-kind student athlete that only comes around once every few decades. But let's be real (D4H you listening?), Dobbs is nowhere near the passer Chad Kelly is. Assuming a complete, healthy season for both, Kelly will undoubtedly be drafted higher than Dobbs, and I don't think any analyst or scout or what the flip ever would argue that, and I love Josh Dobbs (no homo).

 

[barnolde]

yes he is effecient

 

[KBVol]

I've brought this up several times but folks don't want to listen to it.

Josh can be a great PASSING QB. He's as talented as Deshaun Watson. Our coaching staff is just not using him properly.

Whoa, hold up chief. So you're just gonna take these 3rd down passing stats for Dobbs at face value?.....without giving any weight to the competition that he played and how well he passed on 3rd down vs the better teams/defenses vs the worst defenses? You weren't so "generous" when we were discussing Kamara's average yards per carry vs Hurd's in another thread. Here is your exact quote......


"Yards per carry can be easily skewed based on the competition. Jalen got the bulk of the carries when we faced REAL defenses like Oklahoma, Florida, and Alabama. While Alvin had his best games against weak competition like North Texas and Bowling Green."


So, in that same spirit, I thought I'd look at how well Josh performed passing on 3rd down "based on competition", as you would say. Let's see how well Josh threw the ball vs "REAL defenses", to turn a phrase.

And here it is.

Vs the 7 best pass defenses we played last year (#1 Georgia, #5 Mizzou, #13 Florida, #23 Northwestern, #28 Kentucky, #30 Bama and #33 Oklahoma), on 3rd down, Josh completed 49.2% of his passes for 357 yards, converting 37.3% of 3rd downs to 1st downs. Not bad....however.....

Versus the 6 worst pass defenses we played last year (#41 Vandy, #50 SCar, #79 BGSU, #108 NorthTexas, #117 Arkansas and Western Carolina) on 3rd down, his numbers went up significantly.......Dobbs completed 63% of his passes for 375 yards, and converted 49% of 3rd downs to 1st downs.

So, which is it? Does the competition matter to you when arguing against Kamara? Or does the competition not matter to you when arguing for Dobbs, or what? Little bit of consistency here would be good. Otherwise, you sure do look like a hypocrite.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

Whoa, hold up chief. So you're just gonna take these 3rd down passing stats for Dobbs at face value?.....without giving any weight to the competition that he played and how well he passed on 3rd down vs the better teams/defenses vs the worst defenses? You weren't so "generous" when we were discussing Kamara's average yards per carry vs Hurd's in another thread. Here is your exact quote......


"Yards per carry can be easily skewed based on the competition. Jalen got the bulk of the carries when we faced REAL defenses like Oklahoma, Florida, and Alabama. While Alvin had his best games against weak competition like North Texas and Bowling Green."


So, in that same spirit, I thought I'd look at how well Josh performed passing on 3rd down "based on competition", as you would say. Let's see how well Josh threw the ball vs "REAL defenses", to turn a phrase.

And here it is.

Vs the 7 best pass defenses we played last year (#1 Georgia, #5 Mizzou, #13 Florida, #23 Northwestern, #28 Kentucky, #30 Bama and #33 Oklahoma), on 3rd down, Josh completed 49.2% of his passes for 357 yards, converting 37.3% of 3rd downs to 1st downs. Not bad....however.....

Versus the 6 worst pass defenses we played last year (#41 Vandy, #50 SCar, #79 BGSU, #108 NorthTexas, #117 Arkansas and Western Carolina) on 3rd down, his numbers went up significantly.......Dobbs completed 63% of his passes for 375 yards, and converted 49% of 3rd downs to 1st downs.

So, which is it? Does the competition matter to you when arguing against Kamara? Or does the competition not matter to you when arguing for Dobbs, or what? Little bit of consistency here would be good. Otherwise, you sure do look like a hypocrite.

KB, it's obvious D4H is defeated, hasn't been a sighting in quite some time...I'd like to see the rebuttal for entertainment purposes thoughopcorn:

 

[KBVol]

KB, it's obvious D4H is defeated, hasn't been a sighting in quite some time...I'd like to see the rebuttal for entertainment purposes thoughopcorn:

And look, as I went and looked this up I was impressed with how many times Dobbs came up big on 3rd down throwing the ball. That being said, as one might suspect, he was much better converting 3rd downs through the air versus the worst defenses we played as compared to the best ones. Clearly, that won't matter to D4H in this case, whereas thst was his onky point to invalidate AK's better yards per touch than Hurd, even though that actually wasn't the case.

 

[fade route]

Like you said I'm sure folks would rather talk about Josh's 3rd down percentage than argue over my beliefs.

I'll just say that I stand by my comment and we'll find out in 12 months whether I'm right or completely wrong.

I've stated (many times already) that Dobbs will have a phenomenal senior year PASSING the football. He'll be a 1st round draft choice next year.

I'm not here to convince you. I'm just putting my views on the record so when they come to pass, you'll know I saw it coming.

Dobbs will not be a 1st round pick next year.....you're starting to sound like Nationdom, although there was something kinda endearing about him. You? Not so much.

 

[gordonr24]

I opened this thread thinking someone wanted to modify "Third Down for What"

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Dobbs has zero touch, and is awful at throwing the ball deep. Watson has great touch and throws a good deep ball. The only thing these two guys have in common is that they are both great runners at the qb position.

It's hard to blame the coaches for Dobbs throwing 85% of his deep attempts 10 yards over the head of his receiver.

Please cite all the deep balls Dobbs has missed?

As far as I can tell, the problem is we didn't throw the deep ball at all last year. Not that we were highly inefficient.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

That's because in all the close loses where we blew big leads the offense could not stay on the field and complete the most important drives to close out games. All other stats are meaningless untile Dobbs (and the rest of the offense) can prove that they can sustain drives that put good teams away in 4th quarter. You can put a lot of blame for that on coaching as well, but as far as I'm concerned Dobbs is also to blame - so far I have no confidence he can convert those key third down throws in last 5 minutes vs likes of Bama and UF (and let's be honest those are the only ones that matter if he is ever going to change the perception that he is not a reliable passer).

Its hard to convert 3rd and 10 in the 4th quarter when you were just stuffed for two straight run plays.

The reason the offense stalled in the 4th quarter is because the coaches became conservative. They ran on first and second down for no gain then put us in long third downs.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

D4H claimed Dobbs would be a top 10 pick several weeks ago.

No. Its possible he goes that high. All I've guaranteed is he'll go in the 1st round. Not a specific pick.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Whoa, hold up chief. So you're just gonna take these 3rd down passing stats for Dobbs at face value?.....without giving any weight to the competition that he played and how well he passed on 3rd down vs the better teams/defenses vs the worst defenses? You weren't so "generous" when we were discussing Kamara's average yards per carry vs Hurd's in another thread. Here is your exact quote......


"Yards per carry can be easily skewed based on the competition. Jalen got the bulk of the carries when we faced REAL defenses like Oklahoma, Florida, and Alabama. While Alvin had his best games against weak competition like North Texas and Bowling Green."


So, in that same spirit, I thought I'd look at how well Josh performed passing on 3rd down "based on competition", as you would say. Let's see how well Josh threw the ball vs "REAL defenses", to turn a phrase.

And here it is.

Vs the 7 best pass defenses we played last year (#1 Georgia, #5 Mizzou, #13 Florida, #23 Northwestern, #28 Kentucky, #30 Bama and #33 Oklahoma), on 3rd down, Josh completed 49.2% of his passes for 357 yards, converting 37.3% of 3rd downs to 1st downs. Not bad....however.....

Versus the 6 worst pass defenses we played last year (#41 Vandy, #50 SCar, #79 BGSU, #108 NorthTexas, #117 Arkansas and Western Carolina) on 3rd down, his numbers went up significantly.......Dobbs completed 63% of his passes for 375 yards, and converted 49% of 3rd downs to 1st downs.

So, which is it? Does the competition matter to you when arguing against Kamara? Or does the competition not matter to you when arguing for Dobbs, or what? Little bit of consistency here would be good. Otherwise, you sure do look like a hypocrite.

These stats confirmed what I already knew. Josh is a good passer with good accuracy. Nothing more. I'm not using these stats to prove anything else.

His talent is easy to see for anyone who watched the games.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

And look, as I went and looked this up I was impressed with how many times Dobbs came up big on 3rd down throwing the ball. That being said, as one might suspect, he was much better converting 3rd downs through the air versus the worst defenses we played as compared to the best ones. Clearly, that won't matter to D4H in this case, whereas thst was his onky point to invalidate AK's better yards per touch than Hurd, even though that actually wasn't the case.

Dobbs is the only QB who played last year. When we were discussing Kamara, it was vis-a-vis Hurd. I never argued Kamara was a bad player or should get less touches. Just that those stats didn't prove he was better than Hurd.

There is literally no correlation between that argument and this thread. This thread basically beats back against the argument Dobbs is inaccurate. Having better stats against weaker opposition is expected.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

These stats confirmed what I already knew. Josh is a good passer with good accuracy. Nothing more. I'm not using these stats to prove anything else.

His talent is easy to see for anyone who watched the games.

KB wasn't asking for what you what you already knew. It was a specific question as to why it doesn't matter in Dobbs case, but does in Kamara's case vs. inferior competition.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Dobbs will not be a 1st round pick next year.....you're starting to sound like Nationdom, although there was something kinda endearing about him. You? Not so much.

We'll see. I think he's got the talent. He's got the intangibles. Its all about putting it together this year.

I think he has a great individual year passing the ball (65% completion percentage, 3000 yards, 30 TDs). We win the national title. He's got the intangibles the NFL loves. That'll cause him to fly up the draft boards.

Obviously a lot has to come to pass. I'm confident it will because I'm believe in Josh.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

KB wasn't asking for what you what you already knew. It was a specific question as to why it doesn't matter in Dobbs case, but does in Kamara's case vs. inferior competition.

Read my last post. This thread isn't a vis-a-vis argument of Dobbs vs. someone else. If the thread was an argument about Dobbs vs. Dormady. And Dobbs got most of his numbers against weak competition and Dormady has lower stats but mostly played great competition then his criticism would make sense.

But to argue we should discount this stat because Dobbs performed better against worse competition is kind of stupid. Everyone performs better against worse competition. That's what your supposed to do as a great player.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

We'll see. I think he's got the talent. He's got the intangibles. Its all about putting it together this year.

I think he has a great individual year passing the ball (65% completion percentage, 3000 yards, 30 TDs). We win the national title. He's got the intangibles the NFL loves. That'll cause him to fly up the draft boards.

Obviously a lot has to come to pass. I'm confident it will because I'm believe in Josh.

Wait, I figured it out. You ARE Dobbs! Welcome to the board Josh....

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

Read my last post. This thread isn't a vis-a-vis argument of Dobbs vs. someone else. If the thread was an argument about Dobbs vs. Dormady. And Dobbs got most of his numbers against weak competition and Dormady has lower stats but mostly played great competition then his criticism would make sense.

But to argue we should discount this stat because Dobbs performed better against worse competition is kind of stupid. Everyone performs better against worse competition. That's what your supposed to do as a great player.

I did read your last post, but you still refuse to answer the question. Why is it that you argue against Kamara vs. inferior competition, but FOR Dobbs?

 

[KBVol]

Dobbs is the only QB who played last year. When we were discussing Kamara, it was vis-a-vis Hurd. I never argued Kamara was a bad player or should get less touches. Just that those stats didn't prove he was better than Hurd.

There is literally no correlation between that argument and this thread. This thread basically beats back against the argument Dobbs is inaccurate. Having better stats against weaker opposition is expected.

You're a hypocrite. You'll take a stat, any stat, with no qualifiers, no caveats when you think it supports your argument with Dobbs. But if the argument doesn't suit your opinion, you'll gladly introduce whatever qualifier you can think of (i.e., AK wasn't as good because of the stats you think he accumulated vs poor competition). It's a bit comical really. Whatever dude.

 

[KBVol]

Wait, I figured it out. You ARE Dobbs! Welcome to the board Josh....

Nah, can't be Josh....Dobbs has way too much smarts and class.

 

[VonVol]

Read my last post. This thread isn't a vis-a-vis argument of Dobbs vs. someone else. If the thread was an argument about Dobbs vs. Dormady. And Dobbs got most of his numbers against weak competition and Dormady has lower stats but mostly played great competition then his criticism would make sense.

But to argue we should discount this stat because Dobbs performed better against worse competition is kind of stupid. Everyone performs better against worse competition. That's what your supposed to do as a great player.

That's why Dobbs put up those Heisman numbers against North Texas last year.

 

[KBVol]

These stats confirmed what I already knew. Josh is a good passer with good accuracy. Nothing more. I'm not using these stats to prove anything else.

His talent is easy to see for anyone who watched the games.

Again, so in your world, it doesn't matter what type of numbers Josh puts against what type of competition....makes no difference, it's all the same.

However, by contrast, since you don't believe that AK is as good as Hurd, the fact that he averaged 2 more yards per play last year than Hurd means nothing, and can easily be nullified and/or explained away due to the competition he played. Lol. You just keep being you D4H.

 

[Freak]

Again, so in your world, it doesn't matter what type of numbers Josh puts against what type of competition....makes no difference, it's all the same.

However, by contrast, since you don't believe that AK is as good as Hurd, the fact that he averaged 2 more yards per play last year than Hurd means nothing, and can easily be nullified and/or explained away due to the competition he played. Lol. You just keep being you D4H.

Player stats betwen two different players may not be comparable if one player only played in mop up duty, for example.

"IF" Kamara's carries came against lesser competition his stats should be higher.

I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make. Are you suggesting that Kamara is better than Hurd because he averaged more yards per carry, even if those carries came against lesser competition?

By bringing up Dobbs stats against better/worse competition it seems like you're agreeing with D4H but you're presenting it like you disagree. Ate youvtryibg to make a point about Dobbs specifically? (Again, I'm not suggesting they did or didn't)

So I'm kinda lost. I think all parties agree that one's stats should always be better against lesser opponents. :dunno:

 

[KBVol]

I'm not agreeing with D4H but I understand what he's saying. Player stats betwen two different players may not be comparable if one player only played in mop up duty, for example.

"IF" Kamara's carries came against lesser competition his stats should be higher.

I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make. Are you suggesting that Kamara is better than Hurd because he averaged more yards per carry, even if those carries came against lesser competition?

By bringing up Dobbs stats against better/worse competition it seems like you're agreeing with D4H but you're presenting it like you disagree. Ate youvtryibg to make a point about Dobbs specifically?

So I'm kinda lost. I think all parties agree that one's stats should always be better against lesser opponents. :dunno:

No, this has more to do with D4H than it does either Dobbs or AK. D4H and I had this discussion last week in another thread, he knows what I'm taking about, that's why his response tonight has been so tepid.

Last week, all I was saying is I thought we should try to get AK another 2-3 touches per game because, over the course of the 13 games schedule, he averaged 2 more yards per play on average. Wasn't saying he's better than Hurd, certainly conceded that Hurd is the workhorse and needs his carries for sure. Just that because of AK's ability in space, that finding 2-3 more touches per game would, IMO, help the offense.

However, D4H countered by saying that all of AK's numbers came against "lesser competition" and used that statement, and that statement alone, to discount the point. I countered by pointing out that, in fact, AK also averaged more yards per touch vs the better teams as well....he just didn't get near as many opportunities in most of those games.

So, fast forward to today....regarding Dobbs' 3rd down passing success and efficiency, I pointed out that, in fact, Dobbs performed much better in that regard vs the 6 worst pass defenses than he did vs the 7 best. And of course, when pointing this out, D4H changes the discussion and doesn't want to acknowledge the obvious hypocrisy, which is, if that standard or qualifier (lesser competition) is applied to AK's stats, then why don't they similarly apply to Dobbs'?

No comparison is being made in this instance in terms of AK vs Hurd or Dobbs vs any other quarterback....only which standard is being used to validate or invalidate the players' performances. I think that if we're gonna use it to nullify AK's accomplishments, which is what D4H thinks we should do, then why does that same standard not do the same to Dobbs' particular accomplishments, in this case his 3rd down passing. I think it's hypocritical to not apply it to both, while D4H thinks it only applies to AK.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

No, this has to with D4H than it does either Dobbs or AK. D4H and I had this discussion last week in another thread, he knows what I'm taking about, that's why his response tonight has been so tepid.

Last week, all I was saying is I thought we should try to get AK another 2-3 touches per game because, over the course of the 13 games schedule, he averaged 2 more yards per play on average. Wasn't saying he's better than Hurd, certainly conceded that Hurd is the workhorse and needs his carries for sure. Just that because of AK's ability in space, that finding 2-3 more touches per game would, IMO, help the offense.

However, D4H countered by saying that all of AK's numbers came against "lesser competition" and used that statement, and that statement alone, to discount the point. I countered by pointing out that, in fact, AK also averaged more yards per touch vs the better teams as well....he just didn't get near as many opportunities in most of those games.

So, fast forward to today....regarding Dobbs' 3rd down passing success and efficiency, I pointed out that, in fact, Dobbs performed much better in that regard vs the 6 worst pass defenses than he did vs the 7 best. And of course, when pointing this out, D4H changes the discussion and doesn't want to acknowledge the obvious hypocrisy, which is, if that standard or qualifier (lesser competition) is applied to AK's stats, then why don't they similarly apply to Dobbs'?

No comparison is being made in this instance in terms of AK vs Hurd or Dobbs vs any other quarterback....only which standard is being used to validate or invalidate the players' performances. I think that if we're gonna use it to nullify AK's accomplishments, which is what D4H thinks we should do, then why does that same standard not do the same to Dobbs' particular accomplishments, in this case his 3rd down passing. I think it's hypocritical to not apply it to both, while D4H thinks it only applies to AK.

The prosecution calls forth D4H. Your rebuttal please...opcorn:

 

[TGVol]

The reason the offense stalled in the 4th quarter is because the coaches became conservative. They ran on first and second down for no gain then put us in long third downs.

You are correct that coaches became conservative but the real question is why. Do you think it's because they are bad coaches? Or cowards? Or could it be that since they see Josh in practice every day they understand much better than casual fans what throws he is likely to complete under pressure?