The Winning Streak

[beachmaster]

I've seen a few folks on these forums pooh-pooh our 6-game winning streak. "Not great teams," they'd say, "not big challenges," or, "we barely won some of the games," things like that.

Well, let's just think about what goes into a winning streak, purely from a probability perspective.

What if every team we played was a near-peer, a rough equal? Well, that would mean a roughly 50/50 chance of winning each game. So we can calculate the odds we'd win 6 in a row. It is simply:

50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% == .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 == .015625 == about 1.5%.

That's it, a less than 2% chance we get to where we are today.

But wait, the naysayers say, some of those weren't peer competition! Vandy wasn't peer competition! UAB wasn't either!

Okay, fair enough. Let's divide those six games into three groups: hugely favored (90% chance we win), slightly favored (60% chance), and slightly underdog (40% chance). We'll say that UAB and Vandy were 90% games ... that USCe (though we didn't know it then) and Kentucky were slightly favored for us (60%) ... and that we were slight underdogs for Mizzou and Indiana (40%).

GIven all that, our chance of running the back half of the schedule as we did was:

.60 * .90 * .60 * .40 * .90 * .40 == .046656 == a less than 5% chance we'd win out.

We can fiddle with the numbers some more, but it's always gonna come out in this general range: 2% to 5% chance of doing what our lads did. Accomplishing what they accomplished.

That's huge.

Lot to be proud of. Don't let the naysayers tell us any different.

Go Vols!

Good cyphering VFL

 

[goldvol]

Let's set up a straw man and destroy it, cause I haven't seen one single post making the argument that winning 6 games in a row doesn't warrant applause

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Let's set up a straw man and destroy it, cause I haven't seen one single post making the argument that winning 6 games in a row doesn't warrant applause

Heh. Straw man, you say.

You don't even have to leave this thread to find examples proving it's no straw man.

Step 1 win the games you are supposed to win. Check

Agree. Win the games you should.

UT is on a nice streak but no one on that list is going to impress anyone. It doesn't matter.

And that's just in this one thread, which has been running just a few hours.

These sound a lot like "doesn't warrant applause" to me.

Straw man indeed. The board is littered with "it doesn't warrant applause" comments, mostly by the same 10-15 negavols and trolls pretending to be Vol fans. Go see for yourself.

 

[chuck0303]

It's ok to say JG.

Sometimes he can have great games and others not so much. My biggest criticism is that he would make throws too late. I don't know whether he couldn't see/recognize where to throw or whether the guy was covered or what. He should know where the receivers are supposed to go. Before this year I could give him more slack because the OL, more times than not, couldn't keep the rush off of him. Not sure what the solution is.

 

[onevol74]

Some need to downplay the winning streak because it doesn't fit the narrative with their negativity towards a certain player. Really getting old. I think the root of the problem is that many of these are the ones that said we would not win out with a certain person playing QB and they don't like being wrong.

A certain player eliminated any chance we had at winning 8 out of our last 8.

 

[VolnJC]

I've seen a few folks on these forums pooh-pooh our 6-game winning streak. "Not great teams," they'd say, "not big challenges," or, "we barely won some of the games," things like that.

Well, let's just think about what goes into a winning streak, purely from a probability perspective.

What if every team we played was a near-peer, a rough equal? Well, that would mean a roughly 50/50 chance of winning each game. So we can calculate the odds we'd win 6 in a row. It is simply:

50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% == .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 == .015625 == about 1.5%.

That's it, a less than 2% chance we get to where we are today.

But wait, the naysayers say, some of those weren't peer competition! Vandy wasn't peer competition! UAB wasn't either!

Okay, fair enough. Let's divide those six games into three groups: hugely favored (90% chance we win), slightly favored (60% chance), and slightly underdog (40% chance). We'll say that UAB and Vandy were 90% games ... that USCe (though we didn't know it then) and Kentucky were slightly favored for us (60%) ... and that we were slight underdogs for Mizzou and Indiana (40%).

GIven all that, our chance of running the back half of the schedule as we did was:

.60 * .90 * .60 * .40 * .90 * .40 == .046656 == a less than 5% chance we'd win out.

We can fiddle with the numbers some more, but it's always gonna come out in this general range: 2% to 5% chance of doing what our lads did. Accomplishing what they accomplished.

That's huge.

Lot to be proud of. Don't let the naysayers tell us any different.

Go Vols!

 

[greenbacknative]

Not saying it was meth, but it sure looks like it!!!!!

 

[TNinSC]

it doesn't take a genius to see that after such dismal start of the season that the natural projection for this team was downward.

four out of the last six opponents finished with a winning record or at .500. Two hard fought one possession victories in hostile SEC East stadiums (ky-rivalry game and mizzou-senior night). and of course the epic comeback victory in the bowl game with minimal time left.

maybe the quality of opponents won't impress the majority, but the preservation and ability to fight and compete until (literally) the very end of the season deserves commending. this team could've easily given up after the uga game or even after the final whistle in the week one loss to ga state.

imo, this six game win streak counts as impressive

 

[Chad F]

Lots to be proud of as fans. The level of grit and mental toughness demonstrated by this year's team was noticeably lacking from recent years.

However, I think that most of the so-called "critics" of the win streak are just cautious in getting too excited. The teams our guys defeated did not include the "big 3" (Alabama, UGA, and UF). Plus, there were a few of those games that were unnecessarily close (for example, the Vols should have beaten IU by 14-21 points but left a lot of points on the field). None of that takes away from the wins, of course, but it does suggest a little caution in getting hyped up for an unrealistic expectation for next year.

Either way, I'm proud of what the guys did, even though the losses to GA State and BYU remain unforgivable (and historic) flops. It took a lot of guts to get back up and fight after that start to 2019.

 

[FLVOL_79]

You are absolutely correct!

Some need to downplay the winning streak because it doesn't fit the narrative with their negativity towards a certain player. Really getting old. I think the root of the problem is that many of these are the ones that said we would not win out with a certain person playing QB and they don't like being wrong.

If JG wasn't benched UT would not have won out.

 

[RollerVol]

don't care if it was the Sisters of Mercy on the schedule that streak continued through a bowl game to end the season...not too shabby...get over it....

GO BIG ORANGE!

 

[StarRaider]

A certain player eliminated any chance we had at winning 8 out of our last 8.

So you are saying some player did some thing?

 

[savannahfan]

I've seen a few folks on these forums pooh-pooh our 6-game winning streak. "Not great teams," they'd say, "not big challenges," or, "we barely won some of the games," things like that.

Well, let's just think about what goes into a winning streak, purely from a probability perspective.

What if every team we played was a near-peer, a rough equal? Well, that would mean a roughly 50/50 chance of winning each game. So we can calculate the odds we'd win 6 in a row. It is simply:

50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% == .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 == .015625 == about 1.5%.

That's it, a less than 2% chance we get to where we are today.

But wait, the naysayers say, some of those weren't peer competition! Vandy wasn't peer competition! UAB wasn't either!

Okay, fair enough. Let's divide those six games into three groups: hugely favored (90% chance we win), slightly favored (60% chance), and slightly underdog (40% chance). We'll say that UAB and Vandy were 90% games ... that USCe (though we didn't know it then) and Kentucky were slightly favored for us (60%) ... and that we were slight underdogs for Mizzou and Indiana (40%).

GIven all that, our chance of running the back half of the schedule as we did was:

.60 * .90 * .60 * .40 * .90 * .40 == .046656 == a less than 5% chance we'd win out.

We can fiddle with the numbers some more, but it's always gonna come out in this general range: 2% to 5% chance of doing what our lads did. Accomplishing what they accomplished.

That's huge.

Lot to be proud of. Don't let the naysayers tell us any different.

Go Vols!

God,,, I hate seeing things explained with MATH!! It's a helluva lot easier to just say "man we finished 6-0 lets keep it going. ^ wins in a row speak for itself. Bye the way I was/am not any good with math. Fair with arithmetic thou!!

 

[savannahfan]

Sometimes he can have great games and others not so much. My biggest criticism is that he would make throws too late. I don't know whether he couldn't see/recognize where to throw or whether the guy was covered or what. He should know where the receivers are supposed to go. Before this year I could give him more slack because the OL, more times than not, couldn't keep the rush off of him. Not sure what the solution is.

He just moves on...

 

[hatingbamaisawayoflife]

better than a losing streak

 

[IPleadInsanity]

Heh. Straw man, you say.

You don't even have to leave this thread to find examples proving it's no straw man.




And that's just in this one thread, which has been running just a few hours.

These sound a lot like "doesn't warrant applause" to me.

Straw man indeed. The board is littered with "it doesn't warrant applause" comments, mostly by the same 10-15 negavols and trolls pretending to be Vol fans. Go see for yourself.

I don't know how you categorize my comment as negative? Step 1 in revitalizing a program is winning the games you are supposed to win. I think, after 10 years and the early hiccups, we finally did that. Now I can see us taking step 2 in the near future.

 

[volsrock09]

I bet people forget that Butch had an 11 game winning streak before losing to Texas A&M in double overtime.
That said, I feel a lot more optimistic now than I ever did back during that streak of 2015/16.

Should have been at least 15 games lol. In 15, they had the lead late in the 4th against 3 of UTs 4 losses (OU, FL, and Bama) and 14 points ahead of Arkansas in a game that should have been a blowout, IMO. While I liked the win streak, at the least, OU and FL should have been wins if he wouldn't have been so tight and choked. Plus, everyone and their mother knew Derrick Henry was getting the ball and I dont remember them adjusting to stop him. Their QB wasnt dangerous that year and they way the secondary was playing, it wouldnt have been out of the question to single up on the recievers and everyone else be dedicated to stopping #2! Water under the bridge now though lol

 

[DoyleMcOrange]

I've seen a few folks on these forums pooh-pooh our 6-game winning streak. "Not great teams," they'd say, "not big challenges," or, "we barely won some of the games," things like that.

The fact that we did it with Guarantano taking most of the snaps behind center speaks volumes about the achievement. It was huge.

 

[Seattle Hillbilly]

Lot of damn wisdom in this post.

Boca cut right to the point.

 

[Behr]

Boca cut right to the point.

We're lucky to have him.

 

[jakez4ut]

we're a program that won 9 games total the previous two seasons.

so, for anyone still confused.....

winning is STILL more fun than losing.

you're welcome.

 

[reeceb73]

The improvement across the board on this team was great. The only concern is the QB position. We will have a similar season next year if we don't get much better QB play. I don't care who the QB is, but we need someone who resembles a SEC QB. Proper reads and throws on time

 

[SprocketRocket]

I've seen a few folks on these forums pooh-pooh our 6-game winning streak. "Not great teams," they'd say, "not big challenges," or, "we barely won some of the games," things like that.

Well, let's just think about what goes into a winning streak, purely from a probability perspective.

What if every team we played was a near-peer, a rough equal? Well, that would mean a roughly 50/50 chance of winning each game. So we can calculate the odds we'd win 6 in a row. It is simply:

50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% == .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 == .015625 == about 1.5%.

That's it, a less than 2% chance we get to where we are today.

But wait, the naysayers say, some of those weren't peer competition! Vandy wasn't peer competition! UAB wasn't either!

Okay, fair enough. Let's divide those six games into three groups: hugely favored (90% chance we win), slightly favored (60% chance), and slightly underdog (40% chance). We'll say that UAB and Vandy were 90% games ... that USCe (though we didn't know it then) and Kentucky were slightly favored for us (60%) ... and that we were slight underdogs for Mizzou and Indiana (40%).

GIven all that, our chance of running the back half of the schedule as we did was:

.60 * .90 * .60 * .40 * .90 * .40 == .046656 == a less than 5% chance we'd win out.

We can fiddle with the numbers some more, but it's always gonna come out in this general range: 2% to 5% chance of doing what our lads did. Accomplishing what they accomplished.

That's huge.

Lot to be proud of. Don't let the naysayers tell us any different.

Go Vols!

Yep. The third longest Power 5 winning streak in the country right behind Clemson and LSU, and one of them is going down Monday night. That means we will have the second longest winniing streak. That's our Vols!

 

[MWAVolfan]

Yep. The third longest Power 5 winning streak in the country right behind Clemson and LSU, and one of them is going down Monday night. That means we will have the second longest winniing streak. That's our Vols!

We are a very VERY distant 3rd (or eventually second). but at least we got to the point where we are (almost) beating the teams we are supposed to beat. I'll take that as a start.

 

[daj2576]

I've seen a few folks on these forums pooh-pooh our 6-game winning streak. "Not great teams," they'd say, "not big challenges," or, "we barely won some of the games," things like that.

Well, let's just think about what goes into a winning streak, purely from a probability perspective.

What if every team we played was a near-peer, a rough equal? Well, that would mean a roughly 50/50 chance of winning each game. So we can calculate the odds we'd win 6 in a row. It is simply:

50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% == .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 == .015625 == about 1.5%.

That's it, a less than 2% chance we get to where we are today.

But wait, the naysayers say, some of those weren't peer competition! Vandy wasn't peer competition! UAB wasn't either!

Okay, fair enough. Let's divide those six games into three groups: hugely favored (90% chance we win), slightly favored (60% chance), and slightly underdog (40% chance). We'll say that UAB and Vandy were 90% games ... that USCe (though we didn't know it then) and Kentucky were slightly favored for us (60%) ... and that we were slight underdogs for Mizzou and Indiana (40%).

GIven all that, our chance of running the back half of the schedule as we did was:

.60 * .90 * .60 * .40 * .90 * .40 == .046656 == a less than 5% chance we'd win out.

We can fiddle with the numbers some more, but it's always gonna come out in this general range: 2% to 5% chance of doing what our lads did. Accomplishing what they accomplished.

That's huge.

Lot to be proud of. Don't let the naysayers tell us any different.

Go Vols!

Edit: nevermind. Lol