The Trump Effect

#806
#806
"experts" = Trump haters





Truflation
@truflatio
1h

Today's US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released preliminary Productivity and Costs data for Q3 2025 (July-September):

- Labor productivity (output per hour) rose +4.9%, above 3.3% consensus expectation, and higher than the previous 4.2% (revised up for Q2).

This indicates accelerating economic efficiency, often driven by technology, innovation, or better processes.

- Hourly compensation increased with figures varying around +4-5%.

- Unit labor costs (compensation adjusted for productivity gains) declined or rose modestly, reflecting that productivity growth outpaced wage gains.

- Output and hours worked both increased, supporting the productivity surge.

The Productivity and Costs report measures how efficiently the economy produces goods and services. This robust productivity growth is positive for the economy, as it helps contain wage-driven inflationary pressures and supports potential Fed rate cuts without overheating.

Overall bullish for markets, the economy, and risk assets.

The BLS's final revision for Q3 will come on January 29, 2026.
 
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#809
#809
Since somebody thinks AI is the end all be all…

AI Overview



Economists generally view the Truflation index with
skepticism, considering it a potentially useful alternative data source but not a fully "valid" replacement for official metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
The traditional, official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are still considered the gold standard for monetary policy decisions due to their rigorous, long-standing, and transparent methodologies.

Reasons for Skepticism
  • Methodological Concerns: Some economists point out significant methodological issues with the Truflation index, such as monthly adjustments to weights that cause artificial jumps in the data. The methodology, at least initially, was presented in a way that raised questions about how issues like quality changes (quality adjustments) were handled, a complex aspect of inflation measurement.
  • Data Sources and Scope: While Truflation uses a large volume of online price data, it faces challenges in accessing certain key categories like health care and education prices, which are significant components of consumer spending that government data tracks.
  • Lack of Official Standing: Federal Reserve officials and other major economic bodies rely on the official PCE and CPI reports for crucial monetary policy decisions, and the Truflation index does not have the same official standing or long history of producing data with extremely thorough standards.
  • Transparency Issues: The company was initially criticized for a lack of transparency regarding its specific data providers and sources, though its blog posts have since offered more detail.

Perceived Benefits and Use
Despite the skepticism, some economists and market participants find value in the Truflation index as a high-frequency, real-time indicator that can offer a more timely view of price trends than the monthly, lagged government reports.
  • Timeliness: Truflation's daily updates provide an immediate look at price changes, which can give investors and analysts a time advantage in forecasting future official data releases.
  • Alternative View: It offers an alternative perspective to the official metrics, which are known to have their own limitations, such as the lag in capturing real-time housing costs or not fully accounting for consumer substitutions in real-time.
In summary, the Truflation index is seen as a complementary tool for analysts and investors, but it is not considered a fully validated or authoritative measure by the broad economics community for official analysis or policymaking.
 
#815
#815
jmacvols1 said:
uh oh....liberals are cussing and spitting.....




View attachment 804729
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Hail Liarindent, Trump. He is the foreseen Agent of Chaos. Rejoice, for it means the Son's return is closer than ever before. Hail the first of the unclean spirits of Revelation.
Now we ask you, brothers, regarding the coming of our Lord Jesus, the Messiah, and our gathering together to him, 2 not to be so quickly upse or alarmed when someone claims that we said, either by some spirit, conversation, or letter that the Day of the Lord has already come. 3 Do not let anyone deceive you in any way, for it will not come unless the rebellion takes place first and the man of sin, who is destined for destruction, is revealed. 4 He opposes and exalts himself above every so-called god and object of worship. As a result, he seats himself in the sanctuary of God and himself declares that he is God. 2Thessalonians 1-4
 
#816
#816
WoodsmanVol said:
Hail Liarindent, Trump. He is the foreseen Agent of Chaos. Rejoice, for it means the Son's return is closer than ever before. Hail the first of the unclean spirits of Revelation.
Now we ask you, brothers, regarding the coming of our Lord Jesus, the Messiah, and our gathering together to him, 2 not to be so quickly upse or alarmed when someone claims that we said, either by some spirit, conversation, or letter that the Day of the Lord has already come. 3 Do not let anyone deceive you in any way, for it will not come unless the rebellion takes place first and the man of sin, who is destined for destruction, is revealed. 4 He opposes and exalts himself above every so-called god and object of worship. As a result, he seats himself in the sanctuary of God and himself declares that he is God. 2Thessalonians 1-4
Click to expand...
So you accuse Trump of being this "man of sin" because Trump has inflation down to an amazing 1.55%?


 
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#817
#817
jmacvols1 said:
So you accuse Trump of being this "man of sin" because Trump has inflation down to an amazing 1.55%?


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I know you MAGAs are immune to the truth and facts. But here it is anyway.
www.bls.gov

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov www.bls.gov
www.politifact.com

Has inflation eased under Trump? It depends on the measure

President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have touted the administration’s efforts to curb inflation. But has overall inflation eased under Trump? It depends on how you measure.
www.politifact.com www.politifact.com
www.factcheck.org

Are Prices Up or Down? Parsing Misleading Claims by Trump and Democrats - FactCheck.org

About six months into the second term of President Donald Trump, Republicans and Democrats are making conflicting and often misleading assessments of the Trump administration's impact on inflation and prices. Both sides cherry-pick examples of consumer products to support their claims, while...
www.factcheck.org www.factcheck.org
 
#823
#823
Revelation 13:15 - 17
www.rawstory.com

Economist corrects Trump and issues ominous prediction: 'Collapse will follow'

Donald Trump's recent economic claims are "backwards," according to an economist who also unleashed a grim prediction about the future for the United States.Peter Schiff, a financial commentator and radio personality who has been raising alarms about America’s affordability crisis, weighed in...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
 
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