The red line has been crossed

#376
#376
Grand Vol said:
Yeah, my post was meant as sarcasm. I'm pretty sure yours was too until that last sentence.
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No, it was not sarcasm. I hope the Administration solves the Korean problem. I actually dislike Kim more than Trump. Besides I'm about ready for a new OLED Samsung tv and I don't want the supply chain to be interrupted.
 
#377
#377
lawgator1 said:
As to the current situation, I would agree that Kim is backing down. But that's for the moment. Is this actually going to measurably alter their course with nukes and missiles is the long term question.
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You have to understand the Asian mindset when it comes to perceived weakness. As stated, KJU blinked. And that very well can (and just might have been) perceived as weakness by what few political opponents he has over there. Or someone that's remained quiet at the moment sees this as weakness.

Now, whether it will change the course of the nuclear weapons program remains to be seen. However, if KJU even flinches on that, he's a dead man. But, saying that to say this, if someone was to attempt a coup, they very well could put the nuke program or missiles on the table in exchange for relief aid.

Either way, I think KJU is in a bad spot right now and might not even last another year.
 
#378
#378
MT LeConte said:
No, it was not sarcasm. I hope the Administration solves the Korean problem. I actually dislike Kim more than Trump. Besides I'm about ready for a new OLED Samsung tv and I don't want the supply chain to be interrupted.
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So, if Trump takes out KJU, you'll go back to hating Trump full time?
 
#379
#379
Grand Vol said:
You have to understand the Asian mindset when it comes to perceived weakness. As stated, KJU blinked. And that very well can (and just might have been) perceived as weakness by what few political opponents he has over there. Or someone that's remained quiet at the moment sees this as weakness.

Now, whether it will change the course of the nuclear weapons program remains to be seen. However, if KJU even flinches on that, he's a dead man. But, saying that to say this, if someone was to attempt a coup, they very well could put the nuke program or missiles on the table in exchange for relief aid.

Either way, I think KJU is in a bad spot right now and might not even last another year.
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As many of his highest ranking military officers and govt officials as he has executed since taking power, one would have to think somewhere in a dark corner some of his remaining officers are having that conversation about who's next and what to do about it. Finally China got in the game and banned NK exports to apply pressure. That may have helped facilitate Kim's step back.
 
#380
#380
Vol737 said:
As many of his highest ranking military officers and govt officials as he has executed since taking power, one would have to think somewhere in a dark corner some of his remaining officers are having that conversation about who's next and what to do about it. Finally China got in the game and banned NK exports to apply pressure. That may have helped facilitate Kim's step back.
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I think China is dealing more in the background than it seems. Both Trump and Xi have been chatting lately and this whole patent/copyright investigation is looming. It's not too far of a leap of the imagination to think Trump might be cutting China a little slack in regards to that to get their help with North Korea.
 
#381
#381
Grand Vol said:
You have to understand the Asian mindset when it comes to perceived weakness. As stated, KJU blinked. And that very well can (and just might have been) perceived as weakness by what few political opponents he has over there. Or someone that's remained quiet at the moment sees this as weakness.

Now, whether it will change the course of the nuclear weapons program remains to be seen. However, if KJU even flinches on that, he's a dead man. But, saying that to say this, if someone was to attempt a coup, they very well could put the nuke program or missiles on the table in exchange for relief aid.

Either way, I think KJU is in a bad spot right now and might not even last another year.
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What factions exist behind him? He even had his own uncle killed.

http://m.dw.com/en/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-hails-purge-of-uncle/a-17335937

He's worshipped as a demi-god. Who will stand up to him? A military leader?

http://www.dw.com/en/can-north-koreas-elites-oust-kim-jong-un/a-39091374
 
#382
#382
Orangedogsrule said:
What factions exist behind him? He even had his own uncle killed.

http://m.dw.com/en/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-hails-purge-of-uncle/a-17335937

He's worshipped as a demi-god. Who will stand up to him? A military leader?

http://www.dw.com/en/can-north-koreas-elites-oust-kim-jong-un/a-39091374
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There's always someone in the background in a dictatorship just waiting for the chance to make a move and plant the knife in Kim's neck.

And being that the military is "higher" in the food chain over there, it's likely it is a military leader.
 
#383
#383
Grand Vol said:
You have to understand the Asian mindset when it comes to perceived weakness. As stated, KJU blinked. And that very well can (and just might have been) perceived as weakness by what few political opponents he has over there. Or someone that's remained quiet at the moment sees this as weakness.

Now, whether it will change the course of the nuclear weapons program remains to be seen. However, if KJU even flinches on that, he's a dead man. But, saying that to say this, if someone was to attempt a coup, they very well could put the nuke program or missiles on the table in exchange for relief aid.

Either way, I think KJU is in a bad spot right now and might not even last another year.
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Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
 
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#385
#385
Grand Vol said:
There's always someone in the background in a dictatorship just waiting for the chance to make a move and plant the knife in Kim's neck.

And being that the military is "higher" in the food chain over there, it's likely it is a military leader.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-minister-executed-by-anti-aircaft-gun-report

He had another bound in the barracks which were burned down around him. The division(?) regiment(?) he commanded and it's name have been purged from records. The commander was turned in by one of his own.

If a coup is accomplished before word gets out to stop it, the logistics will be heroic.
 
#386
#386
Grand Vol said:
Will you swallow your pride and give credit to the sitting Administration?
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I give them credit right now for getting Kim to back down. No small achievement.

I'll happily give them more if they can meaningfully change the course of N K's nuclear and missile programs. Its hard to see that right now. Maybe you are right and regime change is on the horizon. That would be terrific.

Part of what makes it difficult to evaluate is that I'm not sure what the goal/end game is. Regime change would be one solution. But failing that, what is it? Nuke development stopped dead in its tracks so they still have 20 to 30? Or is the measure that they end up with no nukes? Or it is that they have some nukes, but no way to threaten anyone other than S Korea?

Seems like many different outcomes are possible. But for now, yes, I give the administration credit for defusing the current crisis.
 
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#387
#387
#388
#388
Grand Vol said:
I think China is dealing more in the background than it seems. Both Trump and Xi have been chatting lately and this whole patent/copyright investigation is looming. It's not too far of a leap of the imagination to think Trump might be cutting China a little slack in regards to that to get their help with North Korea.
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that patent copyright thing got settled back in September before he was even elected.
 
#390
#390
#391
#391
#393
#393
OJ said:
I bet you would take a Viagra and end up with third degree burns on your palms
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Well Lawgator is probably one of the most respected groups of lawyers, you know, the ones that advertise on TV. Lets turn your wreck into a check.
 
#396
#396
Do we hold the keys to changing Japan's constitution? As it stands they can only have a defensive force, it seems to me they have paid their dues and currently have a legitimate reason to be armed for a preemptive strike or offensive manuever. Plus if this is really going down there needs to be Asian boots in the mix and not another "liberation" with us at the front.
 
#397
#397
DancingOutlaw said:
Do we hold the keys to changing Japan's constitution? As it stands they can only have a defensive force, it seems to me they have paid their dues and currently have a legitimate reason to be armed for a preemptive strike or offensive manuever. Plus if this is really going down there needs to be Asian boots in the mix and not another "liberation" with us at the front.
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Uh, I don't think having the Japanese help invade Korea would help anything PR wise. Everyone over there hates each other.
 
#398
#398
LouderVol said:
Uh, I don't think having the Japanese help invade Korea would help anything PR wise. Everyone over there hates each other.
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I don't care about PR. But it's getting old that these countries wet their pants with fear and we're supposed to go in and do something about it. NK is a much more imminent threat to Japan than us. They should be a part of any offensive campaign.
 
#399
#399
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#400
#400
MT LeConte said:
OK, Kim has crossed the line (again). It appears Mr Trump's hand has been called (again). Are we going to rain fire and fury down on NK or just hear more bluster from the administration. Trump stated today that "all options are on the table". That's nothing new. The last four administrations have used that line. What now?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/28/politics/north-korea-launch-unidentified-projectile/index.html
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Are you hoping we go to war just so a blowhard CiC saves face?
 
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