The Official New York Knicks Thread.

#76
#76
We needed Toney Douglas to step up and step up he did! Outplayed CP3, but to be fair, I think CP3 has already checked out of that sorry franchise.
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#77
#77
VKAman said:
Again, if stats are leading you to the conclusion that Carmelo is only an average scorer and that the Nuggets are better off with Wilson Chandler, your stats are letting you down.
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Denver is 5-1 without Melo (and only loss was in OT while 4 of the wins were by double digits) while New York is 3-2 with him. Aren't you guys starting to get nervous that maybe I'm right.
 
#78
#78
bamacheats said:
According to stats, Manu Ginobli is better than Derrick Rose. That's why common sense and logic will always reign supreme.
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I don't know what stats you are looking at, but Derrick Rose is having a better year.
 
#79
#79
nbakerld said:
Denver is 5-1 without Melo (and only loss was in OT while 4 of the wins were by double digits) while New York is 3-2 with him. Aren't you guys starting to get nervous that maybe I'm right.
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:crazy:
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#80
#80
nbakerld said:
I don't know what stats you are looking at, but Derrick Rose is having a better year.
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PER TS%

You should probably quit posting in basketball threads, its not good for the "I'm smart" personna you're trying to create. Your stats are only worthy of fantasy basketball played by fantasy athletes. Common sense is superior.
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#81
#81
bamacheats said:
PER TS%

You should probably quit posting in basketball threads, its not good for the "I'm smart" personna you're trying to create. Your stats are only worthy of fantasy basketball played by fantasy athletes. Common sense is superior.
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You are the one that brought up PER which I already said is a terrible stat. TS% is a good stat, but it's incomplete.

Your whole "I'm a dumb jock so I know what's up with sports" persona isn't working.
 
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#82
#82
I don't know why you think I'm the one trying to act like I'm smart. You are the one constantly saying how much I don't know, and that common sense is on your side, etc.
 
#83
#83
nbakerld said:
That probably has something to do with the fact that they don't understand advanced statistics.

NBA Basketball on the other hand is very well explained by stats, and is easily predicted.

Berri, (one of the statisticians that came up with the formula) smoked Hollinger and other NBA experts in a playoff bracket challenge a couple years back. I've seen his trophy.
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Please easily predict this seasons playoffs and finals since its so predictable. It's past the all-star break, rosters are set, you should have more than enough data to plug into your formula.
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#84
#84
bamacheats said:
Please easily predict this seasons playoffs and finals since its so predictable. It's past the all-star break, rosters are set, you should have more than enough data to plug into your formula.
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The most predictive stat when looking at a 7 game series is a team's season point differential.

The best 4 teams in the East (by a long shot) are Bos, then Mia, and then Chi and Orl are a push. The best 2 teams in the West are San Antonio and LA (by a long shot) then they are followed by Dallas and OKC.

Predicting seeding is tricky because teams try to manipulate their seeding (ie, they sometimes prefer a 6 seed to a 5 seed). But once the seeding goes down you can pretty much look at point differential and know who's going to win a series (barring injury).
 
#85
#85
Teams in the playoffs?
Teams in the conference finals?
Teams in the finals?
Champion?
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#86
#86
bamacheats said:
Teams in the playoffs?
Teams in the conference finals?
Teams in the finals?
Champion?
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I can jump through hoops for you, but you'll never be satisfied. Even when you see the results the Knicks and Nuggets put out. I can't predict the playoffs until I see the seeding. You might as well ask me to predict next year's playoffs. I predict the 16 teams in the playoffs are the top 16 in point differential:

Atlanta, Philly, NY, and Indiana are last 4 (Milwaukee may get in).

Denver, Memphis, New Orleans, and Portland are last 4 in west (with Houston and Phoenix both close).

Denver is very hard to predict. The last 6 games have skewed their point differential positively, but that could be a completely random outcome and not reflective of what's going to happen the rest of the season. Also it's unclear from my last post, but I'll take Miami to win the #1 seed.

Now with your expertise, predict the seeding.
 
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#87
#87
I never claimed that the NBA is predictable. It sounds like you are starting to think the same.

I think the finals will be LA vs. Bos. I think this is probably the last season when both of those teams will advance primarily because of experience, age will catch up next season.

Those also have the best coaching staffs in the game.

Miami may not make it past Orlando, if they do it will be because of Wade, D Howard will embarrass Bosh.
Miami may have the weakest coaching staff in the league.
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#88
#88
nbakerld said:
Denver is 5-1 without Melo (and only loss was in OT while 4 of the wins were by double digits) while New York is 3-2 with him. Aren't you guys starting to get nervous that maybe I'm right.
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Not even a little bit.
 
#89
#89
bamacheats said:
I never claimed that the NBA is predictable. It sounds like you are starting to think the same.

I think the finals will be LA vs. Bos. I think this is probably the last season when both of those teams will advance primarily because of experience, age will catch up next season.

Those also have the best coaching staffs in the game.

Miami may not make it past Orlando, if they do it will be because of Wade, D Howard will embarrass Bosh.
Miami may have the weakest coaching staff in the league.
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And I never said I could perfectly predict the finals today, I just meant that the sport in general is predictable (especially relative to other sports).

Also there is virtually no difference between most coaches. The only 2 (of the 70 studied including like 13 HOF coaches) that showed to have positive impact on player productivity through 2 years are Popovich and Jackson.
 
#91
#91
baker, I think you're cool and all, but you have absolutely no idea what you're going on about here.
 
#92
#92
milohimself said:
baker, I think you're cool and all, but you have absolutely no idea what you're going on about here.
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It's OK. I don't expect you guys to believe me even when the end of the season results are in, verifying what I've said about Melo all along. You guys have no idea what I'm going on about. You watch and play sports, but you haven't studied statistics.

The baseball establishment fought Billy Beane tooth and nail, but ultimately owners and GM's sided with him.
 
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#93
#93
The only slight bit I agree with you on is ultimately a team with Melo as their primary guy isn't going to win, but for a completely different set of reasoning.

He's in the discussion as GOAT for a guy who can create offense for himself.
 
#94
#94
Your fundamental problem is that while baseball can be properly analyzed and figured out using only statistics, because the team aspect is so minuscule and it's such a statistically-driven sport, basketball is the complete opposite. There are very few acts in hoops which are not tied to your teammates, like ft%. The only stats that you can analyze in basketball which really have weight is W-L and and combo +/-. Everything else is meaningless, you have to use your eyes.
 
#95
#95
milohimself said:
Your fundamental problem is that while baseball can be properly analyzed and figured out using only statistics, because the team aspect is so minuscule and it's such a statistically-driven sport, basketball is the complete opposite. There are very few acts in hoops which are not tied to your teammates, like ft%. The only stats that you can analyze in basketball which really have weight is W-L and and combo +/-. Everything else is meaningless, you have to use your eyes.
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The +/- stat that I am aware of is meaningless. I don't know what combo +/- is.

Stats in baseball are highly tied to teammates. Defensive stats for obvious reasons. Offense is tied to teammates. You can't get runs or RBI's without teammates unless you homer. How you are pitched depends on who is in front of you and who is after you and who (if anybody) is on what base. A guy with awesome teammates is going to get a lot more opportunities for RBI's, runs, and just hits in generals. You are going to see good pitches if Pujols is after you.

Statisticians try to control for these kinds of variables. It's relatively easy in hoops with only 5 guys on the floor.
 
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#96
#96
Combo +/- is the same as +/- but tied to when other specific players are on the floor. Basically, by the time the all-stear break hits, it will give you your best overall lineups and player combos.
 
#97
#97
milohimself said:
Combo +/- is the same as +/- but tied to when other specific players are on the floor. Basically, by the time the all-stear break hits, it will give you your best overall lineups and player combos.
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Interesting. I know of stats like this and it sounds like it's the right principle, I am wondering about the methodology. Where do I find it?
 
#98
#98
BTW, I didn't tie my point in well. Beane stopped looking at AVG, RBI's and all that because it relied on your teammates too much (or in the case of AVG, it was incomplete). OBP, on the other is mostly about the individual. Kind of like FG%. Your # of assists is going to be affected if your teammates can't score, but an individual's FG% doesn't vary in a statistically significant way when you change the personnel around him, or when the individual varies in his FGA's.
 
#99
#99
My point was more that baseball is by far the most individualized of all the major sports (which it is) and lends itself to statistical analysis far more easily than football, basketball or hockey.
 
#100
#100
milohimself said:
My point was more that baseball is by far the most individualized of all the major sports (which it is) and lends itself to statistical analysis far more easily than football, basketball or hockey.
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It may seem that way, but statisticians that I am aware of prefer hoops. Baseball has that rep because the stat tracking was so thorough for a century, but now hoops has caught up in stat tracking .

Baseball as a game is possibly better explained by stats, but it is so unpredictable. Basketball is well explained by stats and relatively predictable with statistical analysis which is why statisticians like it.
 
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