The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

[MoCo_Vol]

What about non-freshmen and foreign players in the draft?

Unrelated to the HS basketball rankings, but I think it comes into account a bit. 2020 class only list 27 5 stars in the 247 composites and the 2022 class only list 20 right now. My assumption is if the scouts expect the class to have more NBA talent from overseas they lower their total number of 5 stars.

With college football it's a bit more straight forward, since you know the HS talent going into college is the only source for NFL players.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

The better way to look at it, is that the maximum number of 5 stars will be the same as picks in the 1st round. Which has been 30 for awhile, I can't remember the last HS class of talent that actually had a full 30 5 stars though.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Unrelated to the HS basketball rankings, but I think it comes into account a bit. 2020 class only list 27 5 stars in the 247 composites and the 2022 class only list 20 right now. My assumption is if the scouts expect the class to have more NBA talent from overseas they lower their total number of 5 stars.

With college football it's a bit more straight forward, since you know the HS talent going into college is the only source for NFL players.

How can the draft be based on how many HS players will be drafted in the first round AND be unrelated to the number of players other than freshmen being drafted?

 

[swchandler1988]

All the "knowledgeable" negas on this site, please one of you tell me, why do you sit here and whine over a *? The kid skipped a grade and is probably a year or two younger. Negas always trying to find a way to show their ass.

I agree with you, but (can’t remember who said it) BHH used to be class of 2021 a couple years ago. Not sure reason why he went to 2022 in the first place. Definitely wasn’t because of lack of talent

 

[MoCo_Vol]

How can the draft be based on how many HS players will be drafted in the first round AND be unrelated to the number of players other than freshmen being drafted?

You're saying that backwards.

I'm saying the HS star ratings are based on first round talent. But they never rate more than picks available. And those picks aren't impacted by oversea talent since they don't really know "when" those players will be drafted.

I have noticed though that the basketball ratings seems to leave a few less 5 stars than picks available, I am just speculating it's because they assume some overseas talent will be picked. But that's just my opinion, nothing I can point to that proves that theory.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

You're saying that backwards.

I'm saying the HS star ratings are based on first round talent. But they never rate more than picks available. And those picks aren't impacted by oversea talent since they don't really know "when" those players will be drafted.

I have noticed though that the basketball ratings seems to leave a few less 5 stars than picks available, I am just speculating it's because they assume some overseas talent will be picked. But that's just my opinion, nothing I can point to that proves that theory.

How can the draft be unrelated to the number of players other than freshmen being drafted AND how many HS players will be drafted in the first round?

 

[MoCo_Vol]

How can the draft be unrelated to the number of players other than freshmen being drafted AND how many HS players will be drafted in the first round?

All I'm saying is 5 stars are at most going to be equal to the number of first round picks in the drafts. In the NBA that is 30 picks, what drives the number of 5 stars down from that numbers varies.

The thing that I can only speculate about though is why it's not 30 5 stars in every class, what it appears you're questioning. So the class of '21 guys would be rated on the '22 NBA draft potential, so yeah if a lot of overseas guys OR NCAA upperclassmen are likely going in the first round of that draft it would lower the number of 5 stars most likely.

But that's just speculation I can't prove or point to anything that supports that logic.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

I get what you're saying though TGO...but I don't have a great answer for that part of the discussion.

Cause a top rated 5 star in the '21 class could just wait another year before entering the NBA draft. Will that the impact the next HS class and their 5 stars? Maybe. But I'm just a fan speculating I don't work in the recruiting world, would like to know if someone with more background could comment though to help clear it up more.

 

[cncchris33]

I get what you're saying though TGO...but I don't have a great answer for that part of the discussion.

Cause a top rated 5 star in the '21 class could just wait another year before entering the NBA draft. Will that the impact the next HS class and their 5 stars? Maybe. But I'm just a fan speculating I don't work in the recruiting world, would like to know if someone with more background could comment though to help clear it up more.

I have no more experience working in the recruiting world than yourself, though I have followed it extremely closely for 25 years.

I will say, that unless I have had my head in the sand for that amount of time, I have also never heard anyone of note on record as drawing the parallel between the number of 5* players assigned per class as being relative to the number of picks in the 1st rd of the draft. IMO, you are reaching a conclusion that is more coincidental than designed.

I'm open to being wrong about that, but I haven't ever seen anyone even speculate that relation, until today, let alone heard a recruiting expert explain the correlation.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

I have no more experience working in the recruiting world than yourself, though I have followed it extremely closely for 25 years.

I will say, that unless I have had my head in the sand for that amount of time, I have also never heard anyone of note on record as drawing the parallel between the number of 5* players assigned per class as being relative to the number of picks in the 1st rd of the draft. IMO, you are reaching a conclusion that is more coincidental than designed.

I'm open to being wrong about that, but I haven't ever seen anyone even speculate that relation, until today, let alone heard a recruiting expert explain the correlation.

It's how football recruiting 5 stars are done, assumed it's the same for basketball. But as you put it I'm open to being wrong about it, and it's just an assumption on my part.

The 5 star to NFL draft correlation is mentioned in this article (although it's old so maybe things have changed?)
Recruiting: What do all those 'stars' mean?

 

[cncchris33]

It's how football recruiting 5 stars are done, assumed it's the same for basketball. But as you put it I'm open to being wrong about it, and it's just an assumption on my part.

The 5 star to NFL draft correlation is mentioned in this article (although it's old so maybe things have changed?)
Recruiting: What do all those 'stars' mean?

Interesting. So it seems, from reading that article, that 247 makes that correlation, though not necessarily Rivals or ESPN. I had never heard that before.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Interesting. So it seems, from reading that article, that 247 makes that correlation, though not necessarily Rivals or ESPN. I had never heard that before.

Yeah, assumed the others did something similar. But mostly because I've rarely seen more than 30 5 stars in any given class (football or basketball).

 

[ClasslessVol]

Wheeler to UK

 

[cncchris33]

Yeah, assumed the others did something similar. But mostly because I've rarely seen more than 30 5 stars in any given class (football or basketball).

Yeah, and 30 is really too many. There is almost always an entirely separate tier's difference between 1-5 and 25-30. Those top few, the very elite, probably deserve their own category, whether you call them 6-stars, or only call those top few truly 5-stars, and put the others in the 4-star category. The idea that kids like Jaden Springer and Jalen Suggs are in the same tier, or JJJ and Anthony Edwards are in the same tier is goofy.

 

[AngryButchJones]

Yeah, and 30 is really too many. There is almost always an entirely separate tier's difference between 1-5 and 25-30. Those top few, the very elite, probably deserve their own category, whether you call them 6-stars, or only call those top few truly 5-stars, and put the others in the 4-star category. The idea that kids like Jaden Springer and Jalen Suggs are in the same tier, or JJJ and Anthony Edwards are in the same tier is goofy.

Completely, completely agree. The No. 4 ranked player (usually) has less in common with the No. 25 ranked player than the No. 25 player does with, say, the No. 45 or No. 50 player. IMO.

I say that, but then I go look at the 2019 class, and Cole Anthony was No. 4 and Onyeka Okongwu was No. 25, both 1st round picks and both had stellar college seasons lol

 

[cncchris33]

Completely, completely agree. The No. 4 ranked player (usually) has less in common with the No. 25 ranked player than the No. 25 player does with, say, the No. 45 or No. 50 player. IMO.

I say that, but then I go look at the 2019 class, and Cole Anthony was No. 4 and Onyeka Okongwu was No. 25, both 1st round picks and both had stellar college seasons lol

Yeah, there will be exceptions each year. Guys will fail to pan out or be overhyped. Other guys will play above their reputation with hard work and practice. But in general, I think the trend is clear.

 

[IndianapolisVol]

Stars are based on round predictions, 5 stars are considered "first rounders" the NBA only has 30 in each round and the last 10 are "fringe", so classes assign only 20-30 5 stars and if a kid reclassifies it's damn near impossible for him to then bump an existing 5 star. So typically he drops in rating by reclassifying.

I disagree. Stars are based on their standing within their recruiting class and based on their performance at summer camps, AAU tournaments and high school basketball.

Off-topic, but one thing that I’ve always thought should be taken into more consideration than it is would be their location and the skill level they played against. The 6th man at Oak Hill is probably more ready to contribute than a 5 star guy from a state with weaker competition. Robert Hubbs was a good example of this, grew up in Kentucky and didn’t face the same level of competition that others in his class did.

Size and position can also drive inaccurate recruiting rankings. Outside of guys like Anthony Davis, not many Centers are physically ready for the next level at 18 or 19 years old and need time to bulk up. If recruiting stars were based on how NBA-ready a guy is or where he was likely to go in the draft then the top 15 prospects every year would be guards.

Only my opinion.

 

[The Dog]

Anthony Davis was skin and bones his only year at UK, had those wide shoulders, so I knew he could gain the weight later on, kinda like the has those wide shoulders, too. But, I'm assuming u mean his physical skills were all ready pro ready as a freshman, more than his body, although AD got away more by athletic ability than overpowering guys, imo

 

[TrippieRedd]

Anthony Davis was skin and bones his only year at UK, had those wide shoulders, so I knew he could gain the weight later on, kinda like the has those wide shoulders, too. But, I'm assuming u mean his physical skills were all ready pro ready as a freshman, more than his body, although AD got away more by athletic ability than overpowering guys, imo

I honestly think he could give Fulky a run for his money for that starting 5 spot.

Chandler
Powell
JJJ
BHH
Aidoo

Fulky could win 6th man of the year. But it doesn’t matter who starts. I just hope he gets big mins. Would be nice to have potentially 4 guys taken in the draft next year, especially 2 guys that are bigs, which hopefully translates into getting more quality guys down low in the future.

 

[omghulkhands]

Ya’ll see the Dino Gaudio stuff?

 

[walkenvol]

I thought universities paid buy outs to coaches all the time as a form of hush money to keep things quiet?

 

[Dallasbowlin]

Ya’ll see the Dino Gaudio stuff?

Yup, wonder if anything will come of it?

 

[VolsSportsFan]

 

[omghulkhands]

Some of the older guys have to be totally washed at this point if they haven’t been playing any overseas, right?

 

[LeannaVol]

Some of the older guys have to be totally washed at this point if they haven’t been playing any overseas, right?

I was thinking the same thing. It seems like the Ballinteers could use some more young blood especially in the post to really compete for the championship.