The Kim Caldwell System

[madtownvol]

From the article:

They [UTAD] have to retain Caldwell, despite an uninspiring basketball product and public comments that haven’t exactly earned her much goodwill from the alumnae. She’ll likely stay because she was the best coach who wanted to take this job, and it’s better to keep building than restart the clock.

I think that is probably an accurate forecast. As I said before, a worst case scenario (losing out all remaining games) could lead Danny White to consider the nuclear option but the aftermath of that would be equally disastrous. Pipe dreams that Dawn Staley would leave the top flight program she basically built from scratch for the "honor" of coaching at Tennessee is beyond a pipe dream. Same for Kim Mulkey who has gone home to LSU and is queen of the roost there.

A CKC replacement would likely be another up and coming coach from a mid tier program or a promising assistant (all of whom would come in with ?s around their hire and would be starting from ground zero).

So everyone has to hope that this season is a growth pain year for CKC and that she makes a lot of adjustments for next year such as - upgrade some assistant staff positions, significantly adapt her system (completely bury the crazy subbing, etc)., keep her freshman class more or less intact, do a better job filling gaps in the portal (like having an actual post player so we don't get destroyed in the paint). And build the team around the Big "O".

 

[Amb3096]

From the article:



I think that is probably an accurate forecast. As I said before, a worst case scenario (losing out all remaining games) could lead Danny White to consider the nuclear option but the aftermath of that would be equally disastrous. Pipe dreams that Dawn Staley would leave the top flight program she basically built from scratch for the "honor" of coaching at Tennessee is beyond a pipe dream. Same for Kim Mulkey who has gone home to LSU and is queen of the roost there.

A CKC replacement would likely be another up and coming coach from a mid tier program or a promising assistant (all of whom would come in with ?s around their hire and would be starting from ground zero).

So everyone has to hope that this season is a growth pain year for CKC and that she makes a lot of adjustments for next year such as - upgrade some assistant staff positions, significantly adapt her system (completely bury the crazy subbing, etc)., keep her freshman class more or less intact, do a better job filling gaps in the portal (like having an actual post player so we don't get destroyed in the paint). And build the team around the Big "O".

I agree that it's too early to give up on Kim. She needs to get tough and make sure the players she recruits clearly understand her expectations, and to hold them accountable for not doing so.

The platoon substitutions can't be used as a "get out of jail free" card for inappropriate player conduct.

 

[volfan102455]

I agree that it's too early to give up on Kim. She needs to get tough and make sure the players she recruits clearly understand her expectations, and to hold them accountable for not doing so.

The platoon substitutions can't be used as a "get out of jail free" card for inappropriate player conduct.

The platoon substitutions need to stop. A player can absolutely say that it destroys their rhythm and flow on the court and within the game, because it does.

This team also lacks on the court leaders - you are not going to have those when you full scale substitute.

I believe whether it is time to give up on CKC depends upon CKC. If she is not willing to adapt "the system" then it is time to part ways. If she is willing to adapt the system to what works and doesn't work for the players on the floor - then maybe give her one more year to show that she really is a coach that over the long haul will adapt and do what it takes to win.

 

[Amb3096]

The platoon substitutions need to stop. A player can absolutely say that it destroys their rhythm and flow on the court and within the game, because it does.

This team also lacks on the court leaders - you are not going to have those when you full scale substitute.

I believe whether it is time to give up on CKC depends upon CKC. If she is not willing to adapt "the system" then it is time to part ways. If she is willing to adapt the system to what works and doesn't work for the players on the floor - then maybe give her one more year to show that she really is a coach that over the long haul will adapt and do what it takes to win.

I forgot who the coach was who said this, but they made a comment something along the lines of "you're just putting in 5 players who are worse than the ones you started with". For the platoon system to work, you can't have five best players starting and then put in five less talented players and expect them to maintain momentum.

I don't have an issue with the concept as much as the execution, which includes knowing who to keep on the court. Based on some of the recent box scores, she must be adjusting since the minutes distributions seems to show that certain players, like Cooper, are playing significantly more minutes than other players.

 

[Amb3096]

There's few and far between like Beers . I seen a young lady like her in highschool just as big if not bigger run the floor like that the whole game. My granddaughter thou not as big can run a camel in the ground. She would never get tired and ask out of a game. Your not going get major college basketball teams exhausted there's just too many stoppages.

Beers is strong as hell, but there's no way she would beat Zee Spearman in a sprint end to end. Spearman was doing a light jog. One of the Pauldo twins tried in vain to hustle ahead and stop her, but everyone else showed zero hustle on that play.

 

[madtownvol]

I forgot who the coach was who said this, but they made a comment something along the lines of "you're just putting in 5 players who are worse than the ones you started with". For the platoon system to work, you can't have five best players starting and then put in five less talented players and expect them to maintain momentum.

I don't have an issue with the concept as much as the execution, which includes knowing who to keep on the court. Based on some of the recent box scores, she must be adjusting since the minutes distributions seems to show that certain players, like Cooper, are playing significantly more minutes than other players.

The truly maddening thing about this situation is that CKC has some for games, like KY, and stretches of other games largely abandoned the system and the team has looked really good but she keeps going back to the random mass subbing and ghost chasing full court press.

Its like she does not think, oh, "hey we are playing much better in this more conventional scheme, so let's stick with this" but instead goes, "gee, we are looking pretty good in this conventional scheme; just think how much better we can be if go back to the system!!"

 

[Amb3096]

The truly maddening thing about this situation is that CKC has some for games, like KY, and stretches of other games largely abandoned the system and the team has looked really good but she keeps going back to the random mass subbing and ghost chasing full court press.

Its like she does not think, oh, "hey we are playing much better in this more conventional scheme, so let's stick with this" but instead goes, "gee, we are looking pretty good in this conventional scheme; just think how much better we can be if go back to the system!!"

Agreed. She should also know which teams have competent ball handlers and go easy on the press against them. Trying that against SC was pitiful. Latson and Johnson were just eating that up. Even though they had some turnovers, they weren't the kind that allowed Tennesese to get out and run, and they weren't frequent enough to overcome all of the uncontested layups and open jumpers SC was getting from breaking the press early.

I fear she will try to press Galvan and Blakes, and I can confidently say that will NOT end well.

 

[Decker Moss]

“If this is what you want me to come here and do, then I’m going to come here and do it. If you want me to come here and do something else, I’m not the person for the job.”

There’s your answer

 

[volfan102455]

The truly maddening thing about this situation is that CKC has some for games, like KY, and stretches of other games largely abandoned the system and the team has looked really good but she keeps going back to the random mass subbing and ghost chasing full court press.

Its like she does not think, oh, "hey we are playing much better in this more conventional scheme, so let's stick with this" but instead goes, "gee, we are looking pretty good in this conventional scheme; just think how much better we can be if go back to the system!!"

I think she is too tied to her system.

 

[Decker Moss]

Spencer and Spear were the leaders last year and very good ones. I would have loved to have had four years of Spencer. This year we really have no one.

 

[volfan102455]

There’s your answer

And if this is truly what she still believes, she needs to move on and back to the lower divisions.

Career coaches that win a lot of games and become legends change with the times and adjust based on the players. They watch what others are doing and learn from that.

 

[volfan102455]

I went back and read what she said - I think she dislikes that folks refer to her system as a gimmick. Problem is she may be so set on proving folks wrong that it costs her the opportunity to be successful at one of the universities that put women's basketball on the map.

Sadly, in some of the games she has shown that by adjusting aspects of the style of play, the team can be competitive.

It is really up to her at this point to realize the system is not going to be successful as is at this level of play.

 

[mudcat1973]

I didn't mean to imply that we have a $5M NIL budget. It was just for purposes of the example.

Revenue sharing women's basketball 900,000 x 4 = 3,600,000 chip in NIL I would say tennessee has a minimum floor of five million dollars over four years.

Now have any inside information on NIL funding for women's basketball or did I pay one online sites who claims have the numbers.

I said at Tennessee has 5m over 4y so say your in the ballpark of Tennessee minimum floor spending

 

[VOLcanicFan]

Scorching new article

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Did not enjoy reading this hit piece at all, however it definitely provided food for thought. One thing that caught me by surprise was reading “Even Kara Lawson, the Duke coach and a champion with the Volunteers who cites Summitt as her foremost coaching inspiration, reportedly turned down the job before Caldwell was hired.” Is this true? I am a big Kara fan, but had previously heard that Kara was not asked to apply. Anyone know the truth?

 

[BBallNut]

Think about a bell curve of talent/skill for D1 prospects. Like any bell curve, the vast majority are grouped near the middle. What that means is that the difference in talent/skill for a player at, say, the 50th percentile vs. the 55th percentile is going to be some amount, call it X. But, as you move right on the bell curve, the gaps in talent/skill grows for each percentile. So, the gap in talent and skill between the 90th and 91st percentile might be as much as between the 50th and 55th, and the gap between the 90th and 95th would be greater, maybe 5X or 10X. And then you get to the rarefied air of the 97th, 98th, and 99th percentile -- the top few players in each class, maybe in a decade, or even in a generation. The gap in their talent/skill over ANY player who replaces them on the floor can be huge. They need to be on the floor all the time. They're "gravity" players -- the system needs to revolve around them.

Full disclosure – UConn fan here. I made this ID on your forum just to be able to reply to this one post. I think this is one of the smartest looks at what it takes to succeed in division one basketball that I’ve seen in a very long time.

To take your idea one step farther, consider that there are approximately 4350 division, one women’s basketball players (~363 teams ×12 players each). Approximately 50 of them play on the four or so teams that have a chance of national championship in any given year. That is about 1.1% of all players. Only about half of those will play significant minutes, so that is about 1/2 of 1% of all players in any given year that will contribute significantly during games to win the national championship. I think you’ll find that nearly all of those players will have been recruited from the top 50 and most from the top 10. Juju Watkins could carry USC by herself. In this situation, even in the end of the bench players on these teams would most likely be starters for many, many other teams. This doesn’t even consider that the top teams have the very best proven coaches, who have shown that they can succeed year after year.

I’m paraphrasing here, but I heard Coach Caldwell say early on that her system was successful because if you had players roughly equivalent to the teams around you, and you work harder than them, and take more shots than them, you would win most games.

1. It certainly means that you will blow out teams that have less talent than you. It just doesn’t seem like you would get that same success when you consider the enormous talent gap between most teams at the top of division one and the rest of division one. I can, however, clearly see how this would work when you are at the bottom of division one or the top of division two. At that level, you are in the middle, or the lower end of the bell curve where most of the players really are the same in terms of talent.
2. If you are constantly subbing out your best players, and your opponent isn’t, it’s going to highlight the disparity of talent between the very top players and everyone else. It doesn’t seem like a recipe that would be successful.
3. From this perspective, it seems like the road to success is through recruiting and good coaching.

 

[1reVOLver]

@BBallNut, you have grasped the essence of @RetroVol's incisive post.

Your #2 is a courteous understatement of what many here have been saying for a while: The System has good odds of prevailing over average teams and creampuffs. It is, by design, a flawed approach to competition against stronger teams. There is a one word label for the most likely outcomes:

Chalk!

 

[volfan102455]

@BBallNut, you have grasped the essence of @RetroVol's incisive post.

Your #2 is a courteous understatement of what many here have been saying for a while: The System has good odds of prevailing over average teams and creampuffs. It is, by design, a flawed approach to competition against stronger teams. There is a one word label for the most likely outcomes:

Chalk!

YES! We are seeing that #2 is the issue. But does CKC realize that yet is the big question.

 

[madtownvol]

@BBallNut, you have grasped the essence of @RetroVol's incisive post.

Your #2 is a courteous understatement of what many here have been saying for a while: The System has good odds of prevailing over average teams and creampuffs. It is, by design, a flawed approach to competition against stronger teams. There is a one word label for the most likely outcomes:

Chalk!

I think what this board really needs is yet another analogy to explain this dilemma. So here goes!!

CKC systems is ideally suited for a team of plow horses that is competing against another team of plow horses. Fresher plow horses can generally outwork tired plow horses.

Now, when you are in a race with race horses, your comparatively less fatigued plow horse still does not match up with a slightly more fatigued pure breed race horse.

 

[1reVOLver]

YES! We are seeing that #2 is the issue. But does CKC realize that yet is the big question.

She is intelligent. Her working assumption seems to be that when substituting the second platoon against the opponent's starters superior effort will overcome superior talent and skill. Results to date say that is a faulty assumption. Will she believe her heart or her lying eyes?

 

[volfan102455]

To continue with the racehorse comparison. If the opponent has 3 of those and you are going to full scale substitute, you need at least 6 of those. If you had 6 of those there is no need to play this type of offense - just let them run their race.

 

[1reVOLver]

I think what this board really needs is yet another analogy to explain this dilemma. So here goes!!

Plow horses at repose
move slowly moreso
than racing steeds
of slight fatigue.
—Sun Tzu

 

[madtownvol]

She is intelligent. Her working assumption seems to be that when substituting the second platoon against the opponent's starters superior effort will overcome superior talent and skill. Results to date say that is a faulty assumption. Will she believe her heart or her lying eyes?

That is it. That need for realization is why part of me would not mind if the team loses out. I think it may take a catastrophic result to provide the necessary "system shock." If the LVs say beat Vandy and win their NCAA tournament opener, CKC might still harbor a belief that with just one or two more "right" players for the system, all will be just fine.