The Kim Caldwell System

#26
#26
RetroVol said:
just don't know what to think about that training comment. I've also heard her say she didn't try to put as much of her system in this year as last during that period. One is physical, the other is mental. I don't understand summer physical training causing a February slump. I'd think it would just build up a base of endurance. But, I can see a months-long effort to learn, master, and implement a very different system as something that could cause a let-down, especially after a big win like UCONN. The tendency to relax a little and think you're locked in would be strong in that situation. And then effort drops a little and, voila! Ugly basketball. I do know Kim has said that her National Championship team had players who had been in her system for three or four years. I also know she seems to expect players learn to self-correct, both individually and as a team, which is reminiscent of John Wooden's view of himself as a teacher and the games as a chance for players to see how well they learned. I note he was very calm on the sidelines, and Kim is fairly calm also.
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Traditionally it’s been accepted that athletes’ legs have a limited number of miles that can be put on them in a season without burnout. There’s a cumulative effect, thus summer connects to Feb. Kim has said they over trained last year and were trying to find a happy medium this year. said dead legs were at least partially to blame for the midseason’s slump.

Maybe the thought is that enough training in the summer will stretch the usual mileage limit on the legs. But who wants to risk that? Legs are athletes livelihoods. Which is why you’d never see a system requiring this in the pros.
 
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#28
#28
glv98 said:
Have any other lower division coaches won big with the system? Im genuinely curious.
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Doug Bruno ran a similar scheme at DePaul. He had less talented players, but made it to the NCAA tourney nearly every year over a ~30 year coaching career. If memory serves, his DePaul girls reached the Sweet Sixteen three or maybe four times.

ETA: I don't think his teams ever reached the Elite Eight.
 
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#30
#30
@glv98 Moving to this thread because it's on topic:

glv98 said:
Most famously by Nolan Richardson at Arkansas in the 80s or 90s. May have won a natty with it Im not sure. But it didn’t last.

Next iteration I remember was a run on the West Coast maybe again 90s or early 2000s. Coach Paul Westhead at Loyola Merimount tried and a few others.

Louisville men run something close now but don’t do the line subbing nor as much trapping. But they def press and chunk, always emphasizing the shot attempt advantage.

Arkansas women under Neighbors ran the offensive part of this system for yrs. Never hooked up to the D tho and I agree you have to do all this or none.

Why do you think a savvy coach like Dawn with her unlimited stable of premier athletes has never tried it?
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From the Sports Illustrated story linked in the first post in this thread (which I highly recommend), I'd say, no, Kim's system hasn't been tried anywhere else, although I remember seeing mentions of other teams adopting aspects. But, as the article makes clear, Kim made the system her own. So, to some extent it is unique.

However, it has roots, some of them going back to "The Grinnell System" under Dave Arsenault, Sr. beginning in 1989. For more on the current state of that approach, see the March 6, 2025 article "What has happened to The System at Grinnell?" It includes a video of Dave Arsenault Jr. who now coaches that system at Grinnell. This quote seems relevant:

"This year it's been different," said the younger Arseneault on Hoopsville earlier this week. "We've taken probably a few less three-point shots. We've actually shot the ball a little bit worse from the three-point line.

"I also just think how the game has changed and evolved over the last few years and there are more and more teams taking three-point shots, which means they also know how to defend teams taking three-point shots, and we're a little less different on that front."
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As for why Dawn Staley hasn't tried it? Easy. #1. She hasn't had to for the exact reason you stated: all the athletes. #2. She doesn't know it. Not the way Kim does. There are clear indications in everything Kim has said about both playing the system and coaching it that what's really going on with it, what it feels like to play it when it "clicks," is very different than traditional basketball. In the SI article, she talks about getting ground down under the system the first year before finally having it click. If she is at all right about that, then I'm not sure a coach who hasn't played in the system could coach it with authenticity. She can.

I'd also question the assumption that Dawn knows the best way to win. She knows her way, which has included her athletes. But we all can think of examples of great coaches proving themselves to be idiots. Geno dismissing Caitlin's potential in the WNBA is a glaring example. The shock that Moneyball was to all the "experts" in baseball is another.
 
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#31
#31
glv98 said:
Traditionally it’s been accepted that athletes’ legs have a limited number of miles that can be put on them in a season without burnout. There’s a cumulative effect, thus summer connects to Feb. Kim has said they over trained last year and were trying to find a happy medium this year. said dead legs were at least partially to blame for the midseason’s slump.

Maybe the thought is that enough training in the summer will stretch the usual mileage limit on the legs. But who wants to risk that? Legs are athletes livelihoods. Which is why you’d never see a system requiring this in the pros.
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Just like in all sports athletes have wear and tear that accumulates. Just like in football people that know the game at the pro and collegiate levels know RBs & LBs have only so many hits or collisions in them before performance begins to slip. Basketball is primarily the legs whether it's males or females. You can put that wear and tear on those legs in the gym during practices and games and end up with a tired team like Kim admitted to occurred last season for the LVs. Kim said so herself. I think she's trying to figure out how to mitigate and manage that to where her team plays per her plan and ends up with the energy to go through tourney time at end of season.
 
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#32
#32
Really enjoy the post, so thank you.

I feel that the system will work but that it will always be a work in progress. However, any good coach is always tweaking, adding, subtracting from their offensive and defensive schemes.

The only drawback that I see with the system that I cannot seem to reconcile in my own mind (I am not claiming to be anything other than a fan) is that the system is reliant on layups/short shots and/or 3 point shooting. I have watched the game long enough to know that shooters need reps to keep / get into a rhythm. The subbing seems to take away from that. I know this was recently addressed with the "get the ball to who's hot" but it doesn't address the reps needed to get someone back on track. If someone gets hot, of course the other team will adjust and the sagging off those not hitting shots makes the interior play more difficult.

The system makes them fun to watch. I enjoyed the UNLV (Jerry Tarkanian) teams that would release a player when a shot went up and the long pass down court for an easy layup or slam. Run and gun is exciting.

Go Lady Vols. So excited for Saturday.
 
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#33
#33
RetroVol said:
As for why Dawn Staley hasn't tried it? Easy. #1. She hasn't had to for the exact reason you stated: all the athletes.
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Agree. Its not something you do if you have the talent to compete straight up. Creating chaos and uglifying has always been the tactic of the outmatched.
 
#34
#34
glv98 said:
Agree. Its not something you do if you have the talent to compete straight up. Creating chaos and uglifying has always been the tactic of the outmatched.
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Hanging onto hope she’ll change her system… 🤣🤙🏼🧡😉
 
#35
#35
glv98 said:
Agree. Its not something you do if you have the talent to compete straight up. Creating chaos and uglifying has always been the tactic of the outmatched.
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We're going to have different takes on this and that's fine. But is "uglifyig" fair? That's s judgement, not a fact. When we're getting steals, forcing 10 second calls, scoring quickly and jumping right back into the press, I don't see it as ugly!

And if Kim had inferior talent at Glenville and accomplished what she did, them wonderful.

Now if the system makes superior talent underperform, then that is different. But despite comments here, I don't see this team's talent as clearly superior to the to teams in the SEC or nationally. I see a lot of potential. As Kim has said, a high ceiling and a low floor. Hope she can avoid the floor and approach the ceiling.

Everything looks better when the team is winning, and we have agreed that's what it is all about.
 
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#37
#37
glv98 said:
Have any other lower division coaches won big with the system? Im genuinely curious.
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I knew when I saw this I'd seen a recent article about a team that played like Tennesssee. I was just looking at the stats for 3 pt attempts per game and... voila! ("Which means... and then I found out." Ready Player One.) So, there I was, looking at the thread about 3 pt shooting, and I went to see the current stats for most 3 pt attempts per game and, you guessed it, the Lady Vols lead the nation at 34.0. But right on there heels is Arkansas State at 33.9. Bingo! It clicked. Some of this is going to sound familiar:

TL/DR: Dad coached, thrust into head coach unexpectedly. Two mediocre years and a rough start. Revamped offense after first few games of 24-25 to focus on perimeter and (apparently) a pressing defense. Picked last in conference pre-season after having to replace 10 losses from the prior year including leading scorer. Won the conference and won first ever NCAA bid. Plays lots of players, shoots tons of threes at a moderate rate, presses and forces turnovers.

The more complete picture, pulled these from various news reports around the web:

Basketball runs deep in the Rogers family. Her father, who is now the head coach of the Little Rock Christian girls’ basketball team, coached her throughout her childhood and high school years. Now, she’s coaching her own sister.
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After starring at Central Arkansas, she was an assistant coach then became a high school head coach before joining Arkansas state as assistant coach. Then the head coach resigned during the 21-22 season.

Then-Athletic Director Tom Bowen named Rogers as the interim head coach. She coached her first game as interim head coach on December 14: defeating Mississippi Valley State 81-47. The team went 8-10 after Rogers was named interim head coach. The Red Wolves lost leading scorer Keya Patton to a season-ending injury during that stretch.

Rogers’ first full season as the official head coach (2022-2023) ended with a 13-19 overall mark and 6-12 ledger in conference play. A-State reached the quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament for the first time since 2017. In 2023-2024 the team finished with a 13-17 overall record and a 6-12 conference mark for the second consecutive season.

But the end of that second season as head coach was met with some unpleasant challenges. Now, there was a “portal” to deal with in college basketball. All but three members of that 23-24 team left to play elsewhere, including marquis player Izzy Higginbottom of Batesville who transferred to in-state nemesis University of Arkansas. Fans were restless, many posting comments on social media and elsewhere that it was “time for Rogers to go.
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She had to go out and recruit 10 new players, 6 in their final year of eligibility.

Despite being picked to finish 13th in the Sun Belt and retaining three players from the 2023-24 roster, Arkansas State women’s basketball coach Destinee Rogers led the Red Wolves to a 21-11 (15-3 SBC) record, securing the first winning season since 2015-16 and the program's first NCAA Tournament Appearance.

The Red Wolves were the only team from any conference picked to finish last or next-to-last in the preseason poll to finish top two in the conference standings. Coach Rogers did so by reimagining the Scarlet and Black’s offense, which led the nation in three-point makes (10.4 3PG) and attempts (32.7 APG). She led her team to the T-7th most wins and third-most conference wins for a single season in program history.
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This year, the team seems to play a lot like the Lady Vols, although there's not a lot of video. Can't tell how she substitutes, but she has nine players who have played in all 12 games, with three averaging around 25 minutes and the lowest at 11.4. Another player has played in 10 games and averaged 18.7 minutes. As mentioned, they are shooting 33.9 threes per game, hitting 31.4%. They're second in the country in turnovers forced per game at 28.0 (we're 16th at 23.11) and 9th in turnover at 10.5 we're 22nd at 7.33).
 
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#38
#38
RetroVol said:
We're going to have different takes on this and that's fine. But is "uglifyig" fair? That's s judgement, not a fact. When we're getting steals, forcing 10 second calls, scoring quickly and jumping right back into the press, I don't see it as ugly!

And if Kim had inferior talent at Glenville and accomplished what she did, them wonderful.

Now if the system makes superior talent underperform, then that is different. But despite comments here, I don't see this team's talent as clearly superior to the to teams in the SEC or nationally. I see a lot of potential. As Kim has said, a high ceiling and a low floor. Hope she can avoid the floor and approach the ceiling.

Everything looks better when the team is winning, and we have agreed that's what it is all about.
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On that last question of whether the system makes superior talent underperform. It’s a thought I have had bounce around in my head a few times. But then I look at arguably the two best players on the UT roster in Barker and Cooper and their numbers are fantastic, All SEC kind of numbers. The best numbers of her career for Barker. Those are two first round draft picks, and they are thriving. So I don’t know if that angle has legs, except that maybe it’s the players that fall below the term “superior talent” that might be more productive in a conventional system. Time will tell.
 
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#39
#39
RetroVol said:
I knew when I saw this I'd seen a recent article about a team that played like Tennesssee. I was just looking at the stats for 3 pt attempts per game and... voila! ("Which means... and then I found out." Ready Player One.) So, there I was, looking at the thread about 3 pt shooting, and I went to see the current stats for most 3 pt attempts per game and, you guessed it, the Lady Vols lead the nation at 34.0. But right on there heels is Arkansas State at 33.9. Bingo! It clicked. Some of this is going to sound familiar:

TL/DR: Dad coached, thrust into head coach unexpectedly. Two mediocre years and a rough start. Revamped offense after first few games of 24-25 to focus on perimeter and (apparently) a pressing defense. Picked last in conference pre-season after having to replace 10 losses from the prior year including leading scorer. Won the conference and won first ever NCAA bid. Plays lots of players, shoots tons of threes at a moderate rate, presses and forces turnovers.

The more complete picture, pulled these from various news reports around the web:


After starring at Central Arkansas, she was an assistant coach then became a high school head coach before joining Arkansas state as assistant coach. Then the head coach resigned during the 21-22 season.



She had to go out and recruit 10 new players, 6 in their final year of eligibility.



This year, the team seems to play a lot like the Lady Vols, although there's not a lot of video. Can't tell how she substitutes, but she has nine players who have played in all 12 games, with three averaging around 25 minutes and the lowest at 11.4. Another player has played in 10 games and averaged 18.7 minutes. As mentioned, they are shooting 33.9 threes per game, hitting 31.4%. They're second in the country in turnovers forced per game at 28.0 (we're 16th at 23.11) and 9th in turnover at 10.5 we're 22nd at 7.33).
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That’s a good find Retro. They are 9-3 so far this season and their stats are eerily similar to UT’s. They have also had a common opponent this year in UT Martin, beating them by 12 whom the LV’s beat by 11.

www.espn.com

Arkansas State Red Wolves 2025-26 Women's College Basketball Stats - ESPN

Visit ESPN for Arkansas State Red Wolves live scores, video highlights, and latest news. Find standings and the full 2025-26 season schedule.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

www.kait8.com

Arkansas State women’s basketball wins 7th straight game, beats ULM in SBC opener

Behind a season-high 15 three-pointers, the Red Wolves (9-3, 1-0 SBC) opened conference play with a 79-58 victory.
www.kait8.com www.kait8.com
 
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#40
#40
glv98 said:
I'm curious what percentage of the time the trapping press has to cause a turnover versus giving up an easy layup to be successful. I'm sure there's an analytic for that. I realize that percentage changes depending on how good the opponent is and how likely we are to simply outscore the baskets we're giving up.
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It depends on the points per possession in the opponent's regular offensiv sets. The better they are offensively, the more margin of error you can tolerate; the turnovers are more valuable, and the there's less relativ pain in giving up a transition 2 to a team that already had a high percentage of a 2 + some percentage of a 3 [high points per possession] than in a team that you had a good chance of holding to 0 getting themselves an easy 2.

You want to get slightly more turnovers than you give up easy 2s; if you do, then you're breaking even. But that statements ignores that (1) even the "easy" transition shots can (and do) get missed and (2) some of our turnovers are steal-and-scores, which hav around the same analytical value as a made 3, given that it's a +2 on the scoreboard, but also a nullified opponent possession all-in-one. [a made 3 is "3 - value of possession", while a steal'n'score is "+ value [turnover] + 2 [bucket] - value [opponent gets possession]"

So there's some more leeway than the simplistic hermeneutic. In general, a coach running this system shoud probably teach their pressers to position themselves aggressively to intercept passes, because it's those type of turnovers that hav the most value; the ones that generate 3-on-2s, 2-on-1s, and 1 free to the bucket. 10 second calls are great, but they let the defense set up, so they're not near as good as a backcourt steal. (or even just a midcourt steal)
 
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#47
#47
While it’s annoying to see so few adjustments, I’d say before jumping to too big of conclusions let’s see when she fully gets her recruits in here. She did a ton with a first year team last year that had no business going to the S16.
 
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#48
#48
VolRanch said:
While it’s annoying to see so few adjustments, I’d say before jumping to too big of conclusions let’s see when she fully gets her recruits in here. She did a ton with a first year team last year that had no business going to the S16.
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What are you willing to endure? I think we may be asking the questions this year -

- Are you willing to miss the NCAA tournament?
- How many blowout losses of 20 plus points before folks admit this system won't work?

I believe she got some leeway due to the CT win, but that is not going to hold up with games like what we saw against UCLA and now Louisville.
 
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#50
#50
volfan102455 said:
What are you willing to endure? I think we may be asking the questions this year -

- Are you willing to miss the NCAA tournament?
- How may blowout losses of 20 plus points before folks admit this system won't work?

I believe she got some leeway due to the CT win, but that is not going to hold up with games like what we saw against UCLA and now Louisville.
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You can’t miss the tournament. The tournament streak is all we have right now. If Kim blows it, she has to go.

Don’t even care if we go one and done this year. But you can’t miss the tournament and keep your job in this program. Full stop.
 
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