The Foreign Trade Thread

#1,103
#1,103
Velo Vol said:
A recession could happen within a year.
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It could, but it's near impossible to predict when these things will happen. If Trump (or the next guy) keeps interest rates low and continues with QE, it just punts the crash further down the road (and makes it worse).
 
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#1,104
#1,104
n_huffhines said:
It could, but it's near impossible to predict when these things will happen. If Trump (or the next guy) keeps interest rates low and continues with QE, it just punts the crash further down the road (and makes it worse).
Click to expand...
I agree but are we still QE or is that just a term you are using for demand side economics?
 
#1,110
#1,110
n_huffhines said:
GDP is good because of manipulation. Trump's spending like a socialist (putting debt on our children), he's pushing down interest rates (creating a bubble), and quantitative easing (devaluing our money). The only real aspect to our "healthy" economy is he deregulated a tiny bit.

So, on top of all that, he's restricting legal and illegal immigration (both are bad for the economy) and now he's using tariffs (also bad for the economy) in a misguided attempt to restrict illegal immigration. I almost hope he wins the next election just so he can be in office when the economy finally buckles from all this BS. If he gets beat, y'all are gonna blame the next POTUS.
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Could simply be that I've been asleep for the last few years, but what huge new spending has Trump created? Seems like Trump's big demand was for $8 billion and change for a border wall, but he can't even get congress to release that.

Weren't interest rates pushed down big time during Obama's reign when the banking and investment sector with liberal policy help tanked the economy, and rates never really came back up to the levels we used to see? Isn't it the Fed that controls interest rates, and the Fed doesn't report to the president? He can say what he wants, but the Fed is still largely independent?

"President Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve for slowing growth Friday, saying it should slash interest rates and start injecting money into the economy."

"The U.S. central bank might not be finished raising interest rates this year, a former key policymaker said Friday."

Doesn't sound a lot like Don is the Don (mafia type) you make him out to be. But then I'm just a simple retired engineer and not a Nobel winning economist.
 
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#1,111
#1,111
AM64 said:
Could simply be that I've been asleep for the last few years, but what huge new spending has Trump created? Seems like Trump's big demand was for $8 billion and change for a border wall, but he can't even get congress to release that.

Weren't interest rates pushed down big time during Obama's reign when the banking and investment sector with liberal policy help tanked the economy, and rates never really came back up to the levels we used to see? Isn't it the Fed that controls interest rates, and the Fed doesn't report to the president? He can say what he wants, but the Fed is still largely independent?

"President Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve for slowing growth Friday, saying it should slash interest rates and start injecting money into the economy."

"The U.S. central bank might not be finished raising interest rates this year, a former key policymaker said Friday."

Doesn't sound a lot like Don is the Don (mafia type) you make him out to be. But then I'm just a simple retired engineer and not a Nobel winning economist.
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Nope. All trump's fault.
 
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#1,113
#1,113
AM64 said:
Could simply be that I've been asleep for the last few years, but what huge new spending has Trump created? Seems like Trump's big demand was for $8 billion and change for a border wall, but he can't even get congress to release that.

Weren't interest rates pushed down big time during Obama's reign when the banking and investment sector with liberal policy help tanked the economy, and rates never really came back up to the levels we used to see? Isn't it the Fed that controls interest rates, and the Fed doesn't report to the president? He can say what he wants, but the Fed is still largely independent?

"President Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve for slowing growth Friday, saying it should slash interest rates and start injecting money into the economy."

"The U.S. central bank might not be finished raising interest rates this year, a former key policymaker said Friday."

Doesn't sound a lot like Don is the Don (mafia type) you make him out to be. But then I'm just a simple retired engineer and not a Nobel winning economist.
Click to expand...
It is also possible that Trump is smart enough to know that there is no way in hell for the 2 parties to work together on any program cuts and a responsible budget, and has decided that it is every man for himself. He probably has noticed the same can that has been kicked down the road by his predecessors, and decided that it could withstand another kick or two.
 
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#1,115
#1,115
AM64 said:
Could simply be that I've been asleep for the last few years, but what huge new spending has Trump created? Seems like Trump's big demand was for $8 billion and change for a border wall, but he can't even get congress to release that.

Weren't interest rates pushed down big time during Obama's reign when the banking and investment sector with liberal policy help tanked the economy, and rates never really came back up to the levels we used to see? Isn't it the Fed that controls interest rates, and the Fed doesn't report to the president? He can say what he wants, but the Fed is still largely independent?

"President Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve for slowing growth Friday, saying it should slash interest rates and start injecting money into the economy."

"The U.S. central bank might not be finished raising interest rates this year, a former key policymaker said Friday."

Doesn't sound a lot like Don is the Don (mafia type) you make him out to be. But then I'm just a simple retired engineer and not a Nobel winning economist.
Click to expand...

It's really simple, has Trump's federal government spent more or less than Obama's?

1559321110562.png

Has Trump pushed hard for lower interest rates and are they at natural levels? The Fed has been hiking rates since 2015, and forecasted two more hikes for this year, but they're buckling under Trump's pressure and now saying they will not, so he's successfully pushed for lower rates. Interest rates were pushed down in an effort to help us get out of the recession, and we started climbing out of the recession, hence the hikes. Just like prices coordinate buying and selling, interest rates coordinate borrowing/saving, and when you artificially mess with this mechanism, you are asking for trouble (bubbles). The fed shouldn't be setting interest rates at all, but since they do, they need to be their best guess at what the natural rate would be, not what Trump wants them to be so he can tout fake GDP numbers.

Has Trump pushed for more QE?
 
#1,116
#1,116
n_huffhines said:
It's really simple, has Trump's federal government spent more or less than Obama's?

View attachment 207446

Has Trump pushed hard for lower interest rates and are they at natural levels? The Fed has been hiking rates since 2015, and forecasted two more hikes for this year, but they're buckling under Trump's pressure and now saying they will not, so he's successfully pushed for lower rates. Interest rates were pushed down in an effort to help us get out of the recession, and we started climbing out of the recession, hence the hikes. Just like prices coordinate buying and selling, interest rates coordinate borrowing/saving, and when you artificially mess with this mechanism, you are asking for trouble (bubbles). The fed shouldn't be setting interest rates at all, but since they do, they need to be their best guess at what the natural rate would be, not what Trump wants them to be so he can tout fake GDP numbers.

Has Trump pushed for more QE?
Click to expand...
So, Trump is the Fed Chairman?
 
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#1,117
#1,117
n_huffhines said:
It's really simple, has Trump's federal government spent more or less than Obama's?

View attachment 207446

Has Trump pushed hard for lower interest rates and are they at natural levels? The Fed has been hiking rates since 2015, and forecasted two more hikes for this year, but they're buckling under Trump's pressure and now saying they will not, so he's successfully pushed for lower rates. Interest rates were pushed down in an effort to help us get out of the recession, and we started climbing out of the recession, hence the hikes. Just like prices coordinate buying and selling, interest rates coordinate borrowing/saving, and when you artificially mess with this mechanism, you are asking for trouble (bubbles). The fed shouldn't be setting interest rates at all, but since they do, they need to be their best guess at what the natural rate would be, not what Trump wants them to be so he can tout fake GDP numbers.

Has Trump pushed for more QE?
Click to expand...

You mean like government demanding banks loan money to people who couldn't pay, or perhaps stock and futures markets that would make Las Vegas proud ... where prices are set by rumors that spur the irrational buying and selling binges that make fortunes for people who already have fortunes but often tank retirements for the rest? Or maybe by floating currency rates ... you know, the standard of monetary exchange? Those kinds of artificially messing with things??? Most people in the scientific community understand the concept of standards and relationships between measures; apparently that's what sets us apart from economists ... dealing in quantifiable measurables rather than "predicting" how people will react to stimuli.

Maybe it wasn't me that was the one sleeping. Seems like Trump has "demanded" a lot, but few people have been all that accommodating.
 
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#1,118
#1,118
n_huffhines said:
The Fed has been hiking rates since 2015, and forecasted two more hikes for this year, but they're buckling under Trump's pressure and now saying they will not, so he's successfully pushed for lower rates.
Click to expand...

We don't know that that's the reason why. There are a number of indicators that economic growth is slowing, or that inflation is below the target.
 
#1,119
#1,119
"
This is a stunningly stupid idea on many levels.

Let's start with the most obvious: Tariffs are taxes on Americans. Making it more expensive to import goods from Mexico is a pretty roundabout way to get Mexico to change its border policies, but it's a very direct tax increase for American businesses and consumers. Last year, Americans imported more than $346 billion in goods from Mexico, so a 25 percent tariff would amount to an $87 billion tax increase.

Second, the number of undocumented immigrants coming to the United States from Mexico has been declining for years, and many have returned home already. In 2016, there were 1.5 million fewer unauthorized Mexicans living in the U.S. than there were in 2007, according to data from the Pew Research Center. Overall, the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. has declined from 12.2 million in 2007 to about 10 million last year, Pew says.

Perhaps Trump means that Mexico should curb the flow of migrants passing through the country on their way to the United States—specifically, the migrants fleeing violence in Central America. But those are not, by and large, illegal immigrants; they're coming here to legally present themselves as candidates for asylum.

Third, even if Mexico could be convinced to act, somehow, by the tariff threat, the White House's demands are absurd. The tariffs are set to ratchet up by 5 percent every month between June and October, but what sort of comprehensive immigration policy could be implemented in a matter of weeks? Trump says the tariffs will stay in place until the "problem is remedied," but what does that mean? Illegal immigration over the southern border is already near historic lows, and it's not at all clear what metric the Trump administration will use to judge whether Mexico has done as it is being told. Mexican officials are being told to fix a problem they didn't cause, to do it in a matter of weeks, and without knowing how their performance will be measured.

​
Fourth, if the tariffs work the way Trump think they will, they will make illegal immigration worse. Think about it like this: Trump believes tariffs harm the economy of the country exporting goods to the United States (which is true, though importers and consumers in the U.S. are hurt worse). So he's implementing a strategy that's designed to harm Mexico's economy, but what happens when Mexico's economy weakens? More Mexicans try to cometo the United States!

Fifth, Trump's out-of-nowhere tariff threat is rattling the stock market, again.

Sixth, Trump is complicating the passage of his much touted United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) with these new tariff threats. Earlier this year, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R–Iowa) made it clear that the Senate Finance Committee, which handles trade issues and which he chairs, would not approve the USMCA deal until the Trump administration withdrew the tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Canada and Mexico. Trump backed down and lifted those tariffs two weeks ago, apparently clearing the way for the USMCA to pass Congress."
 
#1,121
#1,121
n_huffhines said:
It could, but it's near impossible to predict when these things will happen. If Trump (or the next guy) keeps interest rates low and continues with QE, it just punts the crash further down the road (and makes it worse).
Click to expand...

This is a bigger issue than people realize. This both will cause a currency crisis, and it will cause a huge consumer debt crisis.
 
#1,123
#1,123
Velo Vol said:
Click to expand...


Bingo. Betting on what the Fed might do rather than how an individual company is actually performing in relation to competitors or to actual changes in the economic sector ... like how actual physical retail stores/chains are performing in relation to internet sales.
 
#1,124
#1,124
China is now playing the tariff game on the supply of rare earth elements. The US is basically 100% dependent on China for these critical materials. Some indicators that a new processing plant is in the works here to ensure we do not get cut off from the supply. Seems like there is sufficient rare earth to be mined in the US, but our only processing plant in CA may not be capable to keep up with demand.

No country should ever get to a point of 100% reliance on another for critical resources... shame on us and seemingly a good move to cover our azzes.
 
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