Stars and Recruiting Ranking discussion

#1

BelieveTheHeup93

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#1
We’ll get our fair share of top five classes but honestly, with what this staff has done up to this point with what we’ve had, we will be super competitive regardless with consistent top 10 classes with a few top fives sprinkled in and then selectively hitting the portal.

We were three plays away from being 10-3 in year one with like 65 scholarship players or whatever.
We’re past the goal of being “super competitive” SEC and national championships should be the expectation going forward after the first 2 seasons under this staff. We need to start signing top 5 classes to get there
 
#2
#2
We’re past the goal of being “super competitive” SEC and national championships should be the expectation going forward after the first 2 seasons under this staff. We need to start signing top 5 classes to get there

10th
20th
14th
15th
9th



11th
16th
7th

Any guesses at what these rankings are?
 
#3
#3
10th
20th
14th
15th
9th



11th
16th
7th

Any guesses at what these rankings are?

If I were to guess I'd say Clemsons recruiting rankings preceeding their national championships, but again thats just a guess. If thats it though, it should be noted we don't play in the ACC and get to cruise to the playoffs.
 
#4
#4
If I were to guess I'd say Clemsons recruiting rankings preceeding their national championships, but again thats just a guess. If thats it though, it should be noted we don't play in the ACC and get to cruise to the playoffs.

Correct!

Other things that should be noted:

- they beat SEC dominant team Bama for NC
- playoff will soon be 12 teams
- portal wasn’t a thing so no one really had the opportunity to add multiple impact players at positions of need

I’m not saying we shouldn’t want top 5 classes. I am saying we can win, and win big, without them.
 
#5
#5
Correct!

Other things that should be noted:

- they beat SEC dominant team Bama for NC
- playoff will soon be 12 teams
- portal wasn’t a thing so no one really had the opportunity to add multiple impact players at positions of need

I’m not saying we shouldn’t want top 5 classes. I am saying we can win, and win big, without them.

4th
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
5th
1st
2nd

Can you guess what this is? Exceptions don’t prove the rule.
 
#6
#6
4th
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
5th
1st
2nd

Can you guess what this is? Exceptions don’t prove the rule.

I didn’t say it proved the rule. I simply pointed out it can be done. The fact in can be done (and was in the last decade) + portal + unique offensive system + 12 team playoff = you don’t have to have top 5 classes every year.
 
#7
#7
Correct!

Other things that should be noted:

- they beat SEC dominant team Bama for NC
- playoff will soon be 12 teams
- portal wasn’t a thing so no one really had the opportunity to add multiple impact players at positions of need

I’m not saying we shouldn’t want top 5 classes. I am saying we can win, and win big, without them.

I mean, sure but Clemson essentially had 12 scrimmages and two NFL franchise caliber QBs.

I'll never underestimate this coaching staff, and I think we're about to be routinely landing elite QB's... but yeah, Clemson is kind of an outlier. I don't think the expanded playoffs are going to be like march madness where there are cindarella stories. I think there will be a lot of one sided games and generally speaking, the teams with the highest rated recruiting classes will have a direct correlation to who ultimately wins it all.

Fortunately for us, we're about to start recruiting at an elite level as well.
 
#8
#8
I mean, sure but Clemson essentially had 12 scrimmages and two NFL franchise caliber QBs.

I'll never underestimate this coaching staff, and I think we're about to be routinely landing elite QB's... but yeah, Clemson is kind of an outlier. I don't think the expanded playoffs are going to be like march madness where there are cindarella stories. I think there will be a lot of one sided games and generally speaking, the teams with the highest rated recruiting classes will have a direct correlation to who ultimately wins it all.

Fortunately for us, we're about to start recruiting at an elite level as well.

We are, I agree. But an expanded playoff benefits us also bc of the unique offensive system Heup runs. I don’t think it’ll be like March Madness either, but I know that absolutely no one wants to play a 10-2 Vols team with a Josh Heupel fast-break offense in the playoffs.
 
#9
#9
I didn’t say it proved the rule. I simply pointed out it can be done. The fact in can be done (and was in the last decade) + portal + unique offensive system + 12 team playoff = you don’t have to have top 5 classes every year.

You have to have top 5 classes if you want to win a NC. There is just way too much data that backs that up. The Clemson exception is rare. A complete outlier. You. Ring up the portal. Portal players don’t guarantee anything. They can be program changing or just decent.

Now do I think we can win NY6 bowls without top 5 recruiting classes? Yes. Can we make the playoffs without top 5 classes? Yes. Win a NC? Highly unlikely.
 
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#10
#10
We’re past the goal of being “super competitive” SEC and national championships should be the expectation going forward after the first 2 seasons under this staff. We need to start signing top 5 classes to get there
That is the goal but your fixation on stars has nothing to do with it. UT needs to build a talented and deep roster. You recruit potential. You develop it. That’s how you build a roster. That could be top 5 classes or in reality a full roster averaging in the top 20 with great development and coaching

The recruiting sites aren’t nearly as accurate at finding all the guys with elite potential as you think. Case in point they said Sampson was a 3*. The same for Spraggins who now has some projecting him as a 1st round draftee
 
#11
#11
That is the goal but your fixation on stars has nothing to do with it. UT needs to build a talented and deep roster. You recruit potential. You develop it. That’s how you build a roster. That could be top 5 classes or in reality a full roster averaging in the top 20 with great development and coaching

The recruiting sites aren’t nearly as accurate at finding all the guys with elite potential as you think. Case in point they said Sampson was a 3*. The same for Spraggins who now has some projecting him as a 1st round draftee
I always thought Spraggins was our best O-Line and then Darnell turned it up a notch. But Spraggins is legit.
 
#12
#12
I always thought Spraggins was our best O-Line and then Darnell turned it up a notch. But Spraggins is legit.
Jalen Carter of UGA is the only DT I've seen that actually out manned Spraggins.
He was literally the best defender in CFB last season.

Spraggins has been bgtime for the VOLS
 
#15
#15
That is the goal but your fixation on stars has nothing to do with it. UT needs to build a talented and deep roster. You recruit potential. You develop it. That’s how you build a roster. That could be top 5 classes or in reality a full roster averaging in the top 20 with great development and coaching

The recruiting sites aren’t nearly as accurate at finding all the guys with elite potential as you think. Case in point they said Sampson was a 3*. The same for Spraggins who now has some projecting him as a 1st round draftee
Historically the best teams from the SEC have recruited in the top 5 with the exception of Auburn those 2 years. We need to stack classes that are at least similar to Georgia’s if we want to consistently compete for a national championship
 
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#16
#16
That is the goal but your fixation on stars has nothing to do with it. UT needs to build a talented and deep roster. You recruit potential. You develop it. That’s how you build a roster. That could be top 5 classes or in reality a full roster averaging in the top 20 with great development and coaching

The recruiting sites aren’t nearly as accurate at finding all the guys with elite potential as you think. Case in point they said Sampson was a 3*. The same for Spraggins who now has some projecting him as a 1st round draftee

You build talented and deep rosters like Bama, UGA and OSU have done. By recruiting as many high 4 and 5* players as you can.
 
#17
#17
the recruiting sites flat out whiffed on him. Incredibly athletic for a OG and a nasty disposition

Did the recruiting sites whiff on

Tua
Hurts
May
Darnell Wright
Caleb Williams
Kyler Murray
Trevor Lawrence
Jalen Carter
Nolan Smith
Najee Harris
Derrick Henry
Jerry Jeudy
Devonte Smith
Jalen Waddle
Tee Higgins
Rashan Gary
Justin Fields

Just to name a small few?
 
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#19
#19
Historically the best teams from the SEC have recruited in the top 5 with the exception of Auburn those 2 years. We need to stack classes that are at least similar to Georgia’s if we want to consistently compete for a national championship
Again, stacking talent is very possible without having classes that are top 5 according to sports journalists.
 
#20
#20
Again, stacking talent is very possible without having classes that are top 5 according to sports journalists.
Just stop, you can argue with me all you want about ratings because you don’t like what I post on here, but the simple fact is the teams that consistently finish in the top 5 in recruiting are usually the teams that finish in the top 5 on the field. Georgia, Bama, Ohio State, OU, Michigan, and Clemson rarely finish outside the top 10 and those first 3 usually sign top 5 classes and Bama and Georgia (who have been the most dominant teams the past 7-8 years) either finish 1-3. COULD we get there without cracking the top 5 on a consistent basis? Potentially, but signing the best players each year would make it a lot easier
 
#21
#21
Did the recruiting sites whiff on

Tua
Hurts
May
Darnell Wright
Caleb Williams
Kyler Murray
Trevor Lawrence
Jalen Carter
Nolan Smith
Najee Harris
Derrick Henry
Jerry Jeudy
Devonte Smith
Jalen Waddle
Tee Higgins
Rashan Gary
Justin Fields

Just to name a small few?
Most of the 5* they find are very talented, high probability players. That isn't the question. The question is do you have to have those 30 players or can you find 4* and even 3* players that become equally skilled players.

I don't hate Crompton but he was a 5*.

Other notable misses... just from UT. Some were decent players and contributors but they never played anything like one of the best 30 players in the country:

Brent Vinson
Chris Donald
Kenny O'Neal
Jonathan Mapu
James Banks
Brandon Jeffries
Jessie Mahelona
Albert Toeina
Demetrice Morley
Walter Fisher
Ben Martin
Da'Rick Rogers
Drew Richmond
Kahlil McKenzie
Kyle Phillips
Jonathan Kongbo
 
#22
#22
Most of the 5* they find are very talented, high probability players. That isn't the question. The question is do you have to have those 30 players or can you find 4* and even 3* players that become equally skilled players.

I don't hate Crompton but he was a 5*.

Other notable misses... just from UT. Some were decent players and contributors but they never played anything like one of the best 30 players in the country:

Brent Vinson
Chris Donald
Kenny O'Neal
Jonathan Mapu
James Banks
Brandon Jeffries
Jessie Mahelona
Albert Toeina
Demetrice Morley
Walter Fisher
Ben Martin
Da'Rick Rogers
Drew Richmond
Kahlil McKenzie
Kyle Phillips
Jonathan Kongbo
Eric Berry
 
#23
#23
Just stop, you can argue with me all you want about ratings because you don’t like what I post on here, but the simple fact is the teams that consistently finish in the top 5 in recruiting are usually the teams that finish in the top 5 on the field.
No. YOU just stop acting like a drooling idiot over "stars" like the only good players are the ones who the recruiting sites lavish with "stars".

Georgia, Bama, Ohio State, OU, Michigan, and Clemson rarely finish outside the top 10
Right. And who do you think follows who? UGA, OSU, Bama, and Clemson in particular have demonstrated they can find and develop talent. They have huge, hungry fanbases. It only makes sense for the recruiting sites to take notice of who they value and rate them highly. If the teacher left the room and you were inclined to copy someone's answers on a test... you'd pick the ones who made the best grades, right? That's what the recruit rankings do.

It is great if you can get guys that Saban or Smart really want. There's a real good chance that those players are very good. There's a near certainty that the recruiting sites will rank them high. That does NOT mean that there aren't several players with 3* rankings with just as much potential.

and those first 3 usually sign top 5 classes and Bama and Georgia (who have been the most dominant teams the past 7-8 years) either finish 1-3. COULD we get there without cracking the top 5 on a consistent basis? Potentially, but signing the best players each year would make it a lot easier
You almost got it right. Finding and signing the "best" players with the highest potential is the sum total of the game. That doesn't mean you have to sign 5* players rather than 4* or 3* players.

Seldon I think is someone we both like. There's a good chance IMO that he ends up being a guy that should have been rated 5*. But he didn't have an offer from Bama, UGA, OSU, or Clemson. If he had gotten a Bama or UGA offer then he's an instant 5*. That's the way that actually works... and why you can find enough talent to compete without having those "top 5 classes".

Now if the Vols DO start competing consistently at a high level then the recruiting sites will start giving Heupel's recruits more love.... they'll get the benefit of the doubt too.
 
#24
#24
Eric Berry
The "hits" really don't illustrate the point. They give out around 30 5* ratings per year. There are legitimately 100-200 guys who are just as equally deserving. About 60% or 18-20 of the ones they label 5* will eventually be drafted. Frankly, that's really not all that good even with the 5*. But it gives them enough correct ratings to be "credible"
 
#25
#25
Just stop, you can argue with me all you want about ratings because you don’t like what I post on here, but the simple fact is the teams that consistently finish in the top 5 in recruiting are usually the teams that finish in the top 5 on the field. Georgia, Bama, Ohio State, OU, Michigan, and Clemson rarely finish outside the top 10 and those first 3 usually sign top 5 classes and Bama and Georgia (who have been the most dominant teams the past 7-8 years) either finish 1-3. COULD we get there without cracking the top 5 on a consistent basis? Potentially, but signing the best players each year would make it a lot easier
The first year Clemson won the NC their classes averaged 11th. Michigan's roster talent last fall according to 247's composite was 13th in the country. UGA was 2nd. OSU was 3rd. TCU was 32nd.

Bama was #1 and beaten by UT #19 and LSU #8.

Texas A&M was supposedly the 4th most talented team... and couldn't manage a winning record.

Oregon was ranked 7th and went 10-3 with a loss to Oregon St who was 54th. That should literally NEVER happen if your faith in the recruiting sites was warranted.

Their accuracy isn't proven by liking the talent signed by UGA, OSU, Clemson, and Bama. Any idiot can do that. Their accuracy or lack thereof is how well they predict teams after the top 5 or 6.
 
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