Something I learned the other day that's interesting...

[VFL-82-JP]

Listening to that fella, what's his name, Josh Pate or something like that, on the 247 Youtube channel Late Kick Cuts or something (sorry if I'm messing these names all up)...

He said a couple of things about computer modelling for football analysis that made lightbulbs go on for me.

One thing he said was, a turnover is worth about 4 to 4.5 points for the gaining team. I didn't realize that, but it makes sense. And it makes the General's "play for and make the breaks, and when one comes your way, score" maxim pop. Turnovers are the biggest breaks of all. And they're worth 4 to 4 1/2 points, wow. Wow.

Thinking about it some more, it makes perfect sense. Sure, you don't always score from a turnover, only sometimes. And maybe then, it's just a field goal. But you're ALSO stopping the other team from maybe scoring, as well. So that 4 - 4.5 point swing is perfectly sensible.

Turnovers are huge. No wonder CJP is pushing so hard for the big plays, the splash plays, the turnovers.

I mean, I knew all this before. Kind of. Sort of. It just never really popped into my consciousness just how many points are tied to turnovers.

Okay, that was the first eye-opener he gave me. The second was, you can't model for turnovers. Not with any fidelity at all. Because they're so unpredictable.

Even if you include in your model something like the to-date turnover advantage/disadvantage of each team playing, that is still just a very rough and inadequate piece of your predictive model.

Almost everything else can be modeled well. Maybe not ref bias, but everything else. Surprisingly accurate, too.

But not turnovers.

So if I predict your team is going to win by 6 points, but you turn the ball over twice and your opponent doesn't turn it over at all, everything else being equal, you're going to lose by 2-3 points.

The turnovers are a big part of why no Vegas bookie gets it right more than about 75% of the time. They're why DAJ (our resident math guru) does about the same in the pick-em contests. They're why ESPN's FPI does about the same.

No one can predict the turnovers, and they're huge in point value.

~ ~ ~

Okay, I see you all looking at me like I just discovered water is wet. Okay, okay, I'll be quiet. Heh, for some reason, these light bulbs just came on for me. Thank you Josh Pate, or whatever your name is.

Go Vols!

 

[maxorange]

yeah....go look at Oklahoma's box score from two weeks ago

tho I would refute your suggestion they are unpredictable. Some teams (and esp quarterbacks) are just careless

 

[m1al]

Listening to that fella, what's his name, Josh Pate or something like that, on the 247 Youtube channel Late Kick Cuts or something (sorry if I'm messing these names all up)...

He said a couple of things about computer modelling for football analysis that made lightbulbs go on for me.

One thing he said was, a turnover is worth about 4 to 4.5 points for the gaining team. I didn't realize that, but it makes sense. And it makes the General's "play for and make the breaks, and when one comes your way, score" maxim pop. Turnovers are the biggest breaks of all. And they're worth 4 to 4 1/2 points, wow. Wow.

Thinking about it some more, it makes perfect sense. Sure, you don't always score from a turnover, only sometimes. And maybe then, it's just a field goal. But you're ALSO stopping the other team from maybe scoring, as well. So that 4 - 4.5 point swing is perfectly sensible.

Turnovers are huge. No wonder CJP is pushing so hard for the big plays, the splash plays, the turnovers.

I mean, I knew all this before. Kind of. Sort of. It just never really popped into my consciousness just how many points are tied to turnovers.

Okay, that was the first eye-opener he gave me. The second was, you can't model for turnovers. Not with any fidelity at all. Because they're so unpredictable.

Even if you include in your model something like the to-date turnover advantage/disadvantage of each team playing, that is still just a very rough and inadequate piece of your predictive model.

Almost everything else can be modeled well. Maybe not ref bias, but everything else. Surprisingly accurate, too.

But not turnovers.

So if I predict your team is going to win by 6 points, but you turn the ball over twice and your opponent doesn't turn it over at all, everything else being equal, you're going to lose by 2-3 points.

The turnovers are a big part of why no Vegas bookie gets it right more than about 75% of the time. They're why DAJ (our resident math guru) does about the same in the pick-em contests. They're why ESPN's FPI does about the same.

No one can predict the turnovers, and they're huge in point value.

~ ~ ~

Okay, I see you all looking at me like I just discovered water is wet. Okay, okay, I'll be quiet. Heh, for some reason, these light bulbs just came on for me. Thank you Josh Pate, or whatever your name is.

Go Vols!

Now I'm thirsty....

 

[VFL-82-JP]

yeah....go look at Oklahoma's box score from two weeks ago

tho I would refute your suggestion they are unpredictable. Some teams (and esp quarterbacks) are just careless

Yeah, exactly.

But even then, it remains utterly unpredictable.

For instance, I tell you with some assurance that this Oklahoma kid, Rattler, is going to turn the ball over several times in the next few games. You'd probably agree with me.

But I can't tell you at all whether he's going to turn it over 5 times, or 2 times, or not at all in this NEXT game against Iowa State. Just can't even begin to guess. It's too completely unpredictable at the single-game level, even though we know this kid seems to be a turnover machine.

And that's part of the epiphany I had. Just how unpredictable turnovers are, while being such a BIG part of the math of predicting a score.

 

[Remy]

yeah....go look at Oklahoma's box score from two weeks ago

tho I would refute your suggestion they are unpredictable. Some teams (and esp quarterbacks) are just careless

I agree but also would counsel some teams due to scheme run riskier offenses that make the odds of turnovers higher. Leak at MSU is a good example, his offense finds the usual ways a pass happy offense can turn the ball over. They had an INT last Saturday. That said Leak also has found a way to score at high rates, risks/rewards numbers work for him most of the time. Leak is not the only one, the old triple option offenses where the ball was lateraled a lot comes to mind as well. Lots of others I'm sure.

 

[Duckyvol59]

That's the biggest reason that JG gets on the field on Saturday is his ball control. Lord I hope I didn't just jinx us.

 

[m1al]

That's the biggest reason that JG gets on the field on Saturday is his ball control. Lord I hope I didn't just jinx us.

1-7 on 3rd down passing may have the same effect as a turnover..

 

[5FingerVolPunch]

I really like Josh Pate. I've been listening to him a lot the last couple months. He's pretty sharp and tells it like it is, whether you like it or not.

 

[05_never_again]

Turnovers are incredibly important in football. Incredibly important both to not commit them on offense and to get them on defense.

However, and perhaps I'm wrong, but it seems risky to attempt to deliberately force them in defense. When defenses do that, it seems to lead to things like trying to strip the ball out instead of wrap up and tackle, trying to jump routes on passes and get out of position, etc. Turnovers, particularly interceptions, appear more to be a byproduct of playing solid positional defense and having good coverage on opposing WRs. If you're consistently in good position, then you force opposing offenses to make great throws, and unless the QB is just having a flawless day eventually they are going to make a poor throw you can make a play on.

Forcing fumbles have always seemed like a total crapshoot to me. Most often it seems more like a mistake caused by the offense (e.g., poor ballcarrying) than a good play caused by the defense. There are rare exceptions, like Charles Tillman, that absolutely did have a knack for causing them (his famous Peanut Punch).

 

[SaintLouisVol]

That's the biggest reason that JG gets on the field on Saturday is his ball control. Lord I hope I didn't just jinx us.

I believe this is 100% spot on. I believe JG gets the nod because CJP thinks he's the least likely to make a bad decision throwing the ball.

 

[Smokeyone]

~ ~ ~

Okay, I see you all looking at me like I just discovered water is wet. Okay, okay, I'll be quiet. Heh, for some reason, these light bulbs just came on for me. Thank you Josh Pate, or whatever your name is.

Go Vols!

Boxers are the way to go

If you shave daily get a double edge safety razor, buy quality shave soap, and use yellow feather blades

You can turn a housewife into a hoe but the inverse rarely works out

Don’t fight/argue to make someone take your money. Customer service, customer experience trump anything they are offering

Your wife shouldn’t believe she has the same authority your mom had when you were a kid

Credit cards are a sucker bet. The average American spends 1.22 of every dollar they make because of them

For every girl female on the planet there are 27 guys that would or want to sleep with her, the inverse is also true

the ugly one ain’t always the easy one

It’s not the politics and sports don’t mix, it’s that your politics suck.

Carry a knife everywhere

Every man needs to at some point:
Own a quality handgun, rifle, shotgun and know why
Date a girl they think it out of their league (both up and down)
Own a great car or motorcycle
Do 3 things they are proud of and 3 they are not. It makes them interesting.

Play a sport competitively, it builds character

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Boxers are the way to go

If you shave daily get a double edge safety razor, buy quality shave soap, and use yellow feather blades

You can turn a housewife into a hoe but the inverse rarely works out

Don’t fight/argue to make someone take your money. Customer service, customer experience trump anything they are offering

Your wife shouldn’t believe she has the same authority your mom had when you were a kid

Credit cards are a sucker bet. The average American spends 1.22 of every dollar they make because of them

For every girl female on the planet there are 27 guys that would or want to sleep with her, the inverse is also true

the ugly one ain’t always the easy one

It’s not the politics and sports don’t mix, it’s that your politics suck.

Carry a knife everywhere

Every man needs to at some point:
Own a quality handgun, rifle, shotgun and know why
Date a girl they think it out of their league (both up and down)
Own a great car or motorcycle
Do 3 things they are proud of and 3 they are not. It makes them interesting.

Play a sport competitively, it builds character

I don't know what you mean, but I'm writing all this stuff down. Might come in handy some day.

How do you spell 'ho'?

 

[njvols]

That's the biggest reason that JG gets on the field on Saturday is his ball control. Lord I hope I didn't just jinx us.

No doubt. Reason 1, 2, 3...inexperienced QB's may have higher ceiling, but turnovers usually come with the learning curve. Need JG to show out on Sat.

 

[BeardedVol]

Not sure if I buy what they are selling. Depending on where the turnover occurs on the field, it's often almost no different than a punt for all practical purposes.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Not sure if I buy what they are selling. Depending on where the turnover occurs on the field, it's often almost no different than a punt for all practical purposes.

And if it occurs in the other guy's end zone, it's a guaranteed +6 (likely +7) for your team, on top of the lost potential points for the other guys.

So sometimes, it's +0 effect. Sometimes it's as much as +10, or even +14.

That's why it's 4 to 4.5 point swing on average.

Math. Integral to computer modeling.

 

[wmcovol]

Listening to that fella, what's his name, Josh Pate or something like that, on the 247 Youtube channel Late Kick Cuts or something (sorry if I'm messing these names all up)...

He said a couple of things about computer modelling for football analysis that made lightbulbs go on for me.

One thing he said was, a turnover is worth about 4 to 4.5 points for the gaining team. I didn't realize that, but it makes sense. And it makes the General's "play for and make the breaks, and when one comes your way, score" maxim pop. Turnovers are the biggest breaks of all. And they're worth 4 to 4 1/2 points, wow. Wow.

Thinking about it some more, it makes perfect sense. Sure, you don't always score from a turnover, only sometimes. And maybe then, it's just a field goal. But you're ALSO stopping the other team from maybe scoring, as well. So that 4 - 4.5 point swing is perfectly sensible.

Turnovers are huge. No wonder CJP is pushing so hard for the big plays, the splash plays, the turnovers.

I mean, I knew all this before. Kind of. Sort of. It just never really popped into my consciousness just how many points are tied to turnovers.

Okay, that was the first eye-opener he gave me. The second was, you can't model for turnovers. Not with any fidelity at all. Because they're so unpredictable.

Even if you include in your model something like the to-date turnover advantage/disadvantage of each team playing, that is still just a very rough and inadequate piece of your predictive model.

Almost everything else can be modeled well. Maybe not ref bias, but everything else. Surprisingly accurate, too.

But not turnovers.

So if I predict your team is going to win by 6 points, but you turn the ball over twice and your opponent doesn't turn it over at all, everything else being equal, you're going to lose by 2-3 points.

The turnovers are a big part of why no Vegas bookie gets it right more than about 75% of the time. They're why DAJ (our resident math guru) does about the same in the pick-em contests. They're why ESPN's FPI does about the same.

No one can predict the turnovers, and they're huge in point value.

~ ~ ~

Okay, I see you all looking at me like I just discovered water is wet. Okay, okay, I'll be quiet. Heh, for some reason, these light bulbs just came on for me. Thank you Josh Pate, or whatever your name is.

Go Vols!

Some of us knew turnovers were big long before computers did

 

[wmcovol]

Not sure if I buy what they are selling. Depending on where the turnover occurs on the field, it's often almost no different than a punt for all practical purposes.

????? WTF

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Some of us knew turnovers were big long before computers did

Yeah, but you're smarter than me. Rub it in, why don't ya?

 

[TennesseeTarheel]

Josh Pate hurts my head sometimes. Like an aunt explaining how she got the dressing to taste so good. But, I think what you are talking about is one of those nuances that control outcomes. Much like "hidden yardage", which I first heard about last year. He does good analysis, though.
Go Vols!

 

[WillisWG]

Have seen percentages assigned but never points. Wonder which computer model he's using.


College football's 5 most important stats

But over time, I've come to realize that the sport comes down to five basic things, four of which you can mostly control. You make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

 

[TNbuc2]

I don't know what you mean, but I'm writing all this stuff down. Might come in handy some day.

How do you spell 'ho'?

Do you use a ho for gold digging? I think I am really confused but can't dispute any of the above.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Have seen percentages assigned but never points. Wonder which computer model he's using.


College football's 5 most important stats

But over time, I've come to realize that the sport comes down to five basic things, four of which you can mostly control. You make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

That was a great read, Willis. Thanks for it!

 

[salsahound]

Listening to that fella, what's his name, Josh Pate or something like that, on the 247 Youtube channel Late Kick Cuts or something (sorry if I'm messing these names all up)...

He said a couple of things about computer modelling for football analysis that made lightbulbs go on for me.

One thing he said was, a turnover is worth about 4 to 4.5 points for the gaining team. I didn't realize that, but it makes sense. And it makes the General's "play for and make the breaks, and when one comes your way, score" maxim pop. Turnovers are the biggest breaks of all. And they're worth 4 to 4 1/2 points, wow. Wow.

Thinking about it some more, it makes perfect sense. Sure, you don't always score from a turnover, only sometimes. And maybe then, it's just a field goal. But you're ALSO stopping the other team from maybe scoring, as well. So that 4 - 4.5 point swing is perfectly sensible.

Turnovers are huge. No wonder CJP is pushing so hard for the big plays, the splash plays, the turnovers.

I mean, I knew all this before. Kind of. Sort of. It just never really popped into my consciousness just how many points are tied to turnovers.

Okay, that was the first eye-opener he gave me. The second was, you can't model for turnovers. Not with any fidelity at all. Because they're so unpredictable.

Even if you include in your model something like the to-date turnover advantage/disadvantage of each team playing, that is still just a very rough and inadequate piece of your predictive model.

Almost everything else can be modeled well. Maybe not ref bias, but everything else. Surprisingly accurate, too.

But not turnovers.

So if I predict your team is going to win by 6 points, but you turn the ball over twice and your opponent doesn't turn it over at all, everything else being equal, you're going to lose by 2-3 points.

The turnovers are a big part of why no Vegas bookie gets it right more than about 75% of the time. They're why DAJ (our resident math guru) does about the same in the pick-em contests. They're why ESPN's FPI does about the same.

No one can predict the turnovers, and they're huge in point value.

~ ~ ~

Okay, I see you all looking at me like I just discovered water is wet. Okay, okay, I'll be quiet. Heh, for some reason, these light bulbs just came on for me. Thank you Josh Pate, or whatever your name is.

Go Vols!

This makes me want to go through the house and turn some lights on.

 

[sjt18]

True on average... but not always true in specific cases.

If you avoid turnovers it can't be simply by avoiding the risks that yield sustained drives and scores.

JG had no TO's and one TD pass. that's a plus 4.5. Costello had 5 TD's and 2 INT's. That's plus 13.5.

As with anything in life, you have to balance risks with rewards. Being hyper conservative is just as "dangerous" as being reckless.

 

[FLVOL_79]

Boxers are the way to go

If you shave daily get a double edge safety razor, buy quality shave soap, and use yellow feather blades

You can turn a housewife into a hoe but the inverse rarely works out

Don’t fight/argue to make someone take your money. Customer service, customer experience trump anything they are offering

Your wife shouldn’t believe she has the same authority your mom had when you were a kid

Credit cards are a sucker bet. The average American spends 1.22 of every dollar they make because of them

For every girl female on the planet there are 27 guys that would or want to sleep with her, the inverse is also true

the ugly one ain’t always the easy one

It’s not the politics and sports don’t mix, it’s that your politics suck.

Carry a knife everywhere

Every man needs to at some point:
Own a quality handgun, rifle, shotgun and know why
Date a girl they think it out of their league (both up and down)
Own a great car or motorcycle
Do 3 things they are proud of and 3 they are not. It makes them interesting.

Play a sport competitively, it builds character

Sage advice