Something I learned the other day that's interesting...

[TennesseeTarheel]

True on average... but not always true in specific cases.

If you avoid turnovers it can't be simply by avoiding the risks that yield sustained drives and scores.

JG had no TO's and one TD pass. that's a plus 4.5. Costello had 5 TD's and 2 INT's. That's plus 13.5.

As with anything in life, you have to balance risks with rewards. Being hyper conservative is just as "dangerous" as being reckless.

It's only reckless if it doesn't work. Another variable. (Thinking of the onside kick vs. Indiana)

 

[DiderotsGhost]

Back when I created some advanced statistics last year, I counted interceptions and fumbles as -50 yard plays. That's essentially what they are, on average (or somewhere in that range); indeed that may even be underestimating it. I still think a lot of analysts severely underestimate how bad turnovers are.

 

[orangebloodgmc]

Do you use a ho for gold digging? I think I am really confused but can't dispute any of the above.

Some of our permit applications in Louisiana say that they will pull the line across the marsh by using a wench.

 

[dobre_shunka]

Josh Pate hurts my head sometimes. Like an aunt explaining how she got the dressing to taste so good. But, I think what you are talking about is one of those nuances that control outcomes. Much like "hidden yardage", which I first heard about last year. He does good analysis, though.
Go Vols!

For his review of the SCAR game this week, he brought up Ga State and BYU as reasons why Tennessee shouldn't feel good about beating SCAR. Didn't really get that connection

 

[PulaskiVolFan]

True on average... but not always true in specific cases.

If you avoid turnovers it can't be simply by avoiding the risks that yield sustained drives and scores.

JG had no TO's and one TD pass. that's a plus 4.5. Costello had 5 TD's and 2 INT's. That's plus 13.5.

As with anything in life, you have to balance risks with rewards. Being hyper conservative is just as "dangerous" as being reckless.

Problem with that is that the TDs don't always amount to 5, I'd say most avg less than 3 a game yet their ints continue to happen. Sat was a blip for MSU, they'll have more than 1 game where they throw as many ints as they do TDs

 

[spyfish007]

This is taught in college statistics class with the following example. Coin flip has a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. (Excluding trick coins or defective ones). If you flip a coin 9 times in a row and get heads everyone thinks the next flip will be tails because the odds or as others read it as average is 50/50. "It has to be tails because it is far away from the average or it has not happened in awhile." This is false thinking. Odds about the future yet saying nothing about when they will occur.

 

[sjt18]

Problem with that is that the TDs don't always amount to 5, I'd say most avg less than 3 a game yet their ints continue to happen. Sat was a blip for MSU, they'll have more than 1 game where they throw as many ints as they do TDs

We will see... but that evades the point. Regardless of the reasons, JG's avoidance of turnovers comes at a cost that is too high. JG is a 4th year starter who has NEVER thrown 3 or more TD passes against ANY FBS opponent... not even weak OOC opponents.

 

[Caspian]

Listening to that fella, what's his name, Josh Pate or something like that, on the 247 Youtube channel Late Kick Cuts or something (sorry if I'm messing these names all up)...

He said a couple of things about computer modelling for football analysis that made lightbulbs go on for me.

One thing he said was, a turnover is worth about 4 to 4.5 points for the gaining team. I didn't realize that, but it makes sense. And it makes the General's "play for and make the breaks, and when one comes your way, score" maxim pop. Turnovers are the biggest breaks of all. And they're worth 4 to 4 1/2 points, wow. Wow.

Thinking about it some more, it makes perfect sense. Sure, you don't always score from a turnover, only sometimes. And maybe then, it's just a field goal. But you're ALSO stopping the other team from maybe scoring, as well. So that 4 - 4.5 point swing is perfectly sensible.

Turnovers are huge. No wonder CJP is pushing so hard for the big plays, the splash plays, the turnovers.

I mean, I knew all this before. Kind of. Sort of. It just never really popped into my consciousness just how many points are tied to turnovers.

Okay, that was the first eye-opener he gave me. The second was, you can't model for turnovers. Not with any fidelity at all. Because they're so unpredictable.

Even if you include in your model something like the to-date turnover advantage/disadvantage of each team playing, that is still just a very rough and inadequate piece of your predictive model.

Almost everything else can be modeled well. Maybe not ref bias, but everything else. Surprisingly accurate, too.

But not turnovers.

So if I predict your team is going to win by 6 points, but you turn the ball over twice and your opponent doesn't turn it over at all, everything else being equal, you're going to lose by 2-3 points.

The turnovers are a big part of why no Vegas bookie gets it right more than about 75% of the time. They're why DAJ (our resident math guru) does about the same in the pick-em contests. They're why ESPN's FPI does about the same.

No one can predict the turnovers, and they're huge in point value.

~ ~ ~

Okay, I see you all looking at me like I just discovered water is wet. Okay, okay, I'll be quiet. Heh, for some reason, these light bulbs just came on for me. Thank you Josh Pate, or whatever your name is.

Go Vols!

From a mathematics/probability standpoint, it's likely that the number of turnovers over a particular period of time does not manifest in a normal distribution. But instead, it most likely conforms to the Poisson distribution. This would require the reasonable assumption that turnovers occur with a known constant average rate, and also that each occurrence is independent of the time since the last event. Whereas, it would then follow, that the length of time between turnovers would conform to a negative exponential distribution.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

From a mathematics/probability standpoint, it's likely that the number of turnovers over a particular period of time does not manifest in a normal distribution. But instead, it most likely conforms to the Poisson distribution. This would require the reasonable assumption that turnovers occur with a known constant average rate, and also that each occurrence is independent of the time since the last event. Whereas, it would then follow, that the length of time between turnovers would conform to a negative exponential distribution.

Damn.

You smart.

 

[PulaskiVolFan]

We will see... but that evades the point. Regardless of the reasons, JG's avoidance of turnovers comes at a cost that is too high. JG is a 4th year starter who has NEVER thrown 3 or more TD passes against ANY FBS opponent... not even weak OOC opponents.

He also has 24 games he has thrown 0 TDs and only 2 games where he had 2 ints. Those numbers are impossible to ignore when coaches value the football as much as they say they do.

 

[Caspian]

Damn.

You smart.

I spent a lot time dealing with this stuff in a prior line of work long ago. I guess it's coming in handy now.

 

[37620VOL]

From a mathematics/probability standpoint, it's likely that the number of turnovers over a particular period of time does not manifest in a normal distribution. But instead, it most likely conforms to the Poisson distribution. This would require the reasonable assumption that turnovers occur with a known constant average rate, and also that each occurrence is independent of the time since the last event. Whereas, it would then follow, that the length of time between turnovers would conform to a negative exponential distribution.

Translated: Turnovers start at 0 and go up. Analysis requires certain assumptions. Given these assumptions, one could attempt to predict when the next turnover will occur.

 

[IndianaVol]

So here's a good joke about stats and probabilities:

3 guys go hunting, 2 engineers and a statistician. First bird flies into the air, first engineer takes aim - fires and misses.
"Dang, just missed low" he cried.
Second bird takes flight, second engineer pops up and fires.
"Dang it, just missed high" he utters out.
"WE NAILED IT !!!" rings out as the stats guy pops up arms in the air...

Back to the OPs point about a turnover being a 4 to 4 1/2 point swing on average in a game.
That was evidenced and played out in Columbia, SC on Saturday the 26th of September, 2020...

 

[VFL_JB]

For his review of the SCAR game this week, he brought up Ga State and BYU as reasons why Tennessee shouldn't feel good about beating SCAR. Didn't really get that connection

What he was saying was that we shouldn't be upset about sneaking by SCar. That if anyone was mad about the way we played then he's got 2 words for them...georgia...state.

 

[sjt18]

He also has 24 games he has thrown 0 TDs and only 2 games where he had 2 ints. Those numbers are impossible to ignore when coaches value the football as much as they say they do.

Yeah. Smart coaches value points though.... and any way you slice it or dice it JG has never led a UT O to more than 30 points against ANY FBS opponent. You don't "value the football" if you can't sustain drives, produce in the RZ, and score points. The whole objective "value" of the football is points.

Low turnovers are NOT an end in themselves.

 

[Plano Vol]

I find I would rather contemplate the ho's I've known rather than the turnovers I've seen.

 

[m1al]

I find I would rather contemplate the ho's I've known rather than the turnovers I've seen.

Well, maybe not all of them.. Some things are better left buried.....

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

Not sure if I buy what they are selling. Depending on where the turnover occurs on the field, it's often almost no different than a punt for all practical purposes.

Clay Travis has always been very vocal on a scenario pertaining to this. He says when you have those 3rd and 25’ish plays and coaches like to run the ball to gain a few yards before the punt, why not just heave one deep? If it’s incomplete, you punt. If it’s picked off way downfield, it’s essentially the same as punting the ball to them.

I actually 100% agree with him.

 

[WillisWG]

1-7 on 3rd down passing may have the same effect as a turnover..

USCe scored 2 FG after these 7 three outs. Do it against a Bama, Florida or Georgia could be much more painful.

 

[Falcons02]

True on average... but not always true in specific cases.

If you avoid turnovers it can't be simply by avoiding the risks that yield sustained drives and scores.

JG had no TO's and one TD pass. that's a plus 4.5. Costello had 5 TD's and 2 INT's. That's plus 13.5.

As with anything in life, you have to balance risks with rewards. Being hyper conservative is just as "dangerous" as being reckless.

It's the "shots-on-goal" football philosophy with Leach. He knows (or rather believes) his offense will be more efficient and explosive than yours.