SEC Tournament Seeding

#1
VolFann9

VolFann9

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#1
By looking at ESPN BPI and Kenpom, I came up with approximate expected losses for each of the top half teams in current standings, and where that would put them in final rankings. For us, it’s pretty close between finishing 13-5 or 12-6 in conference. The math leans 13-5, but personally I am leaning 12-6 which would theoretically tie us with LSU. Frankly, I would rather lose the tie breaker and play Arkansas, the 5 seed. Alabama is already 4-4 and has a brutal schedule left: at Auburn, at Kentucky, vs Kentucky, and at LSU. That is the only reason I would expect them to fall down to the 6 seed.
 

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#2
#2
Also, for SEC tournament seed tie breaker, I am pretty sure it goes as follows:

1) head to head record
2) record vs #1 seed
3) coin flip by commissioner

LSU plays Auburn once and lost. We play Auburn once and are about 60/40 favored to win (though Barnes doesn’t do well against Pearl teams). Basically, if we beat Auburn, we will most likely be the three seed.
 
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#3
#3
VolFann9 said:
Also, for SEC tournament seed tie breaker, I am pretty sure it goes as follows:

1) head to head record
2) record vs #1 seed
3) coin flip by commissioner

LSU plays Auburn once and lost. We play Auburn once and are about 60/40 favored to win (though Barnes doesn’t do well against Pearl teams). Basically, if we beat Auburn, we will most likely be the three seed.
Click to expand...


How are we favored to beat Auburn? They will run us out of the gym with their athleticism.
 
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#4
#4
With the barn’s remaining schedule I’d be interested what the 2.4 expected losses are. It’s incredibly soft (other than us of course…)

For Bama, they seem to be much better off against top teams (beat zags, Baylor) than lesser foes (lost to UGA, Iona, Memphis).
 
#5
#5
vol94 said:
How are we favored to beat Auburn? They will run us out of the gym with their athleticism.
Click to expand...

The eye test says they will run us out of the gym. The statistics say we have a good chance. Remember that Mizzou had them all but beat a few days ago. Basketball is weird like that
 
#6
#6
Volprofch05 said:
With the barn’s remaining schedule I’d be interested what the 2.4 expected losses are. It’s incredibly soft (other than us of course…)
Click to expand...

I may have accidentally double counted a probability somewhere, but I think two losses is about right. Don’t underestimate home court advantage. Here’s their toughest games:

vs Bama, @Arkansas, @Florida, @tennessee, @Miss St
 
#7
#7
VolFann9 said:
I may have accidentally double counted a probability somewhere, but I think two losses is about right. Don’t underestimate home court advantage. Here’s their toughest games:

vs Bama, @Arkansas, @Florida, @tennessee, @Miss St
Click to expand...

Well, I certainly hope it turns out that way, with one of those Ls in Knoxville! As for the close contest against Missou, that was the first game after they became #1 for the first time in program history, just saying. We’ll see how it goes.
 
#8
#8
VolFann9 said:
The eye test says they will run us out of the gym. The statistics say we have a good chance. Remember that Mizzou had them all but beat a few days ago. Basketball is weird like that
Click to expand...

True. But Vols struggle vs Auburn. I just don’t think it’s a good matchup.
 
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#9
#9
VolFann9 said:
The eye test says they will run us out of the gym. The statistics say we have a good chance. Remember that Mizzou had them all but beat a few days ago. Basketball is weird like that
Click to expand...

We have a lot of downers. They don't realize that we haven't lost a game @ home all year. They are overreacting to very close road losses to great teams.
 
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#10
#10
Barnes does not perform well against Pearl teams (going back to Texas days). I love Pearl as a coach, but Barnes is frankly a better person. I hope for his sake he crushes the barn when they come to Knoxville—we’ll see
 
#12
#12
VolFann9 said:
Barnes does not perform well against Pearl teams (going back to Texas days). I love Pearl as a coach, but Barnes is frankly a better person. I hope for his sake he crushes the barn when they come to Knoxville—we’ll see
Click to expand...

Something that I have noticed about Barnes teams lately is that they are really good at home but very mediocre on the road. I think we will beat Auburn since it is in Knoxville.

The only bad home game performance this year was Ole Miss and we still pulled that one out.
 
#13
#13
I doubt we can beat either Kentucky or Auburn at home so we need to be tough on the road. I say we go 6-4 for the remaining SEC schedule, win maybe 1 game in SEC tournament and wind up around a 6th seed in NCAA tournament.
 
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#14
#14
Namorto1 said:
I doubt we can beat either Kentucky or Auburn at home so we need to be tough on the road. I say we go 6-4 for the remaining SEC schedule, win maybe 1 game in SEC tournament and wind up around a 6th seed in NCAA tournament.
Click to expand...
I was thinking 7-3 at best but don't discount 6-4 because with KY and Auburn two of our 5 home games I'm not confident that we will win all 5 home games. Under Pearl Auburn has had the Vols number. We attended the last Auburn home game that UT lost. Hope they can beat them this time but would be surprised if we do.
 
#15
#15
The sad thing is that Barnes couldn't beat a Pearl-coached team if our team was the Memphis Grizzlies or the Phoenix Suns.
Bruce is in Rick's head like a terminal infection.
UT vs. Auburn in basketball is like UT vs. Bama in football, if not worse.
 
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#16
#16
Special Ed said:
The sad thing is that Barnes couldn't beat a Pearl-coached team if our team was the Memphis Grizzlies or the Phoenix Sun.
Bruce is in Rick's head like a terminal infection.
UT vs. Auburn in basketball is like UT vs. Bama in football, if not worse.
Click to expand...
This is a dumb argument for me to take… but I’m about 1000% sure if you have Barnes the Suns or the Grizzlies we’d win by 20+.
 
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#19
#19
VolFann9 said:
By looking at ESPN BPI and Kenpom, I came up with approximate expected losses for each of the top half teams in current standings, and where that would put them in final rankings. For us, it’s pretty close between finishing 13-5 or 12-6 in conference. The math leans 13-5, but personally I am leaning 12-6 which would theoretically tie us with LSU. Frankly, I would rather lose the tie breaker and play Arkansas, the 5 seed. Alabama is already 4-4 and has a brutal schedule left: at Auburn, at Kentucky, vs Kentucky, and at LSU. That is the only reason I would expect them to fall down to the 6 seed.[/QUOT
The way things look now, we will have a hard time regardless of who we will play or how we are seated in the SEC tourney.
Click to expand...
 
#21
#21
VolFann9 said:
By looking at ESPN BPI and Kenpom, I came up with approximate expected losses for each of the top half teams in current standings, and where that would put them in final rankings. For us, it’s pretty close between finishing 13-5 or 12-6 in conference. The math leans 13-5, but personally I am leaning 12-6 which would theoretically tie us with LSU. Frankly, I would rather lose the tie breaker and play Arkansas, the 5 seed. Alabama is already 4-4 and has a brutal schedule left: at Auburn, at Kentucky, vs Kentucky, and at LSU. That is the only reason I would expect them to fall down to the 6 seed.
Click to expand...

Bama will lost at Auburn, to UK and @ UK. Possibly @ Lsu. Calculate that in your seeding.
 
#22
#22
Namorto1 said:
I doubt we can beat either Kentucky or Auburn at home so we need to be tough on the road. I say we go 6-4 for the remaining SEC schedule, win maybe 1 game in SEC tournament and wind up around a 6th seed in NCAA tournament.
Click to expand...

uk & aub will beat tenn @ knoxville . They just have better front court players.
 
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#23
#23
VolFann9 said:
By looking at ESPN BPI and Kenpom, I came up with approximate expected losses for each of the top half teams in current standings, and where that would put them in final rankings. For us, it’s pretty close between finishing 13-5 or 12-6 in conference. The math leans 13-5, but personally I am leaning 12-6 which would theoretically tie us with LSU. Frankly, I would rather lose the tie breaker and play Arkansas, the 5 seed. Alabama is already 4-4 and has a brutal schedule left: at Auburn, at Kentucky, vs Kentucky, and at LSU. That is the only reason I would expect them to fall down to the 6 seed.
Click to expand...
Right now we have to win out minus Auburn and KY to get to 20 wins. I think we end up as a 4 seed.
 
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