I’ve changed my tune on this after listening to Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy last night and giving it some additional thought.
I think Miami is in and either Bama or Notre Dame is out. I forgot that the committee had moved Bama ahead of ND last week, even though both won on Nov. 29. Choosing Miami or ND for the final at-large spot would allow them to do three things:
1. Protect the integrity of championship games by not penalizing a team for losing in one.
2. Utilize the easiest of metrics (head-to-head) to select the final At-large team, which protects the emphasis on scheduling good teams.
3. Maintain harmony among the P4 leagues by giving a bid to an ACC team.
The committee could also decide a team with three losses isn’t getting in - that’s an easy data point to default to, and Bama’s bad loss to FSU is a black eye ND or Miami doesn’t have.
Personally, I think ND is the best of those three teams right now. I also think Alabama has the best body of work of the three. It will be interesting to see what the committee does.