RPI Discussion.

#551
#551
bowlinggreenvol said:
He said if we lose to Mizzou and UF we're still in. That puts us at 5-3 over our last 8 instead of 9-1 (or 7-1). If we go 7-1 with the only loss being to Vandy then I don't doubt we're in. That would give us a top 3 win over UF and probably a top 50 win over Mizzou (not sure their RPI at this time).
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According to RPIforecast's wizard thing, losing at home to UF and both Mizzou games gives us an RPI of 46. That's not a guaranteed miss of the tournament by any means.
 
#552
#552
bleedingTNorange said:
Actually that myth has been debunked the last two years, they don't look at your final 10 games any differently.




Pop quiz....best RPI high major to get left out of the dance since the field expanded to 68?




Anyone that thinks that is a fool. However, RPI inside of 50 as a high major and you're pretty much guaranteed a spot, especially when you have the SOS we have.
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I still think we back in, but Martin needed to go in seeded 7 or better.
5-3 won't do that.
 
#554
#554
The mere fact that we are staring at the bubble with this roster is proof of just how inept CCM and staff are at coaching basketball.
 
#557
#557
bowlinggreenvol said:
He said if we lose to Mizzou and UF we're still in. That puts us at 5-3 over our last 8 instead of 9-1 (or 7-1). If we go 7-1 with the only loss being to Vandy then I don't doubt we're in. That would give us a top 3 win over UF and probably a top 50 win over Mizzou (not sure their RPI at this time).
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That's actually not what I said, so you may wanna reread my post :hi:
 
#559
#559
CAVol said:
No one here is arguing that they're doing a good job.
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Some people can't distinguish between defending, and having a discussion. Just because someone is presenting facts about where we stand in our tourney chances is not automatically defending the coach.
 
#560
#560
bleedingTNorange said:
There's so much wrong in this post I'm not sure it's really even worth my time because I doubt you'll read this, but what the heck, I'll give it a crack.



Rule #1. Don't guarantee anything that you can not control. I'm guessing you are not on the selection committee, therefore regardless of your opinion that the committee is gonna try some new selection process this year, you don't know.



Do you understand what being a bubble team means? It means you have some flaws, such as bad losses, lousy SOS, no good wins etc that make your resume less impressive. If you had no losses to any teams that weren't tournament teams, then you wouldn't be on the bubble. Look at high major bubble teams from years past, they have multiple bad losses typically and a handful of losses to non tourney teams.



There's is where understanding that last year is last year and this year is this year comes into play. Do you know what our record was last year on February 10? How about our RPI? Last year we were 12-10(4-6) with a RPI of 105 on this date. Today we are 15-8(6-4) with a RPI of 47. If you don't understand that that's a monumental difference, then I'm not sure what to tell you.



Well 10-6 would be an interesting finish, what happened to the other 2 games? Mass blizzard hit the southeast and Slive decided to cut the SEC schedule 2 games short?
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I'm sorry smartass, 12-6. Is my guaranteeing we're not in with those losses, any different than you saying we are in even if we lose the two games you mentioned? Sounds like your pretty sure of yourself as well.

I realize we're starting from a better vantage point this yr than last, doesn't mean RPI can't erode enough with losses to keep us out. UVA has a crap schedule remaining outside of Cuse and their RPI could very well regress, which I'd be surprised if it didn't.

By the way, have you picked up BigPapaVols jock strap and run with it as the resident bball expert, who's mission is to set everyone with a dissenting opinion straight?
 
#562
#562
bowlinggreenvol said:
I'm sorry smartass, 12-6. Is my guaranteeing we're not in with those losses, any different than you saying we are in even if we lose the two games you mentioned? Sounds like your pretty sure of yourself as well.

I realize we're starting from a better vantage point this yr than last, doesn't mean RPI can't erode enough with losses to keep us out. UVA has a crap schedule remaining outside of Cuse and their RPI could very well regress, which I'd be surprised if it didn't.
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What's your point about UVA? That they won't be a good win? For that to happen they'd have to lose just about every game they have left, I don't see that as being likely.
 
#564
#564
bleedingTNorange said:
What's your point about UVA? That they won't be a good win? For that to happen they'd have to lose just about every game they have left, I don't see that as being likely.
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My point is a top 25 RPI win can easily become nothing more than a top 50 RPI win. Still impressive, but not as much. If we end up with nothing more than one top 50 win that leaves a glaring hole on our resume IMO. If we win tomorrow I think all arguments can be put to rest and we cement our ticket, assuming we win the remaining games that we should (which is all with Mizzou being a toss-up).
 
#565
#565
bowlinggreenvol said:
My point is a top 25 RPI win can easily become nothing more than a top 50 RPI win. Still impressive, but not as much. If we end up with nothing more than one top 50 win that leaves a glaring hole on our resume IMO. If we win tomorrow I think all arguments can be put to rest and we cement our ticket, assuming we win the remaining games that we should (which is all with Mizzou being a toss-up).
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We currently have 2 top 50 wins, not just 1. And assuming we split with Missouri like my scenario you dislike states, that likely gives us a 3rd top 50 win. Add in that ole miss and LSU are both close to top 50 and you're talking now 4 or 5 top 50 wins, that's more than enough.
 
#566
#566
bleedingTNorange said:
That's actually not what I said, so you may wanna reread my post :hi:
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You didn't say we can lose to both UF and Mizzou and get in relatively easily? Maybe re-read the post I quoted you on. Maybe I'm to "dense" to understand someone's opinion that's written as straight forward as yours was.
 
#567
#567
bleedingTNorange said:
We currently have 2 top 50 wins, not just 1. And assuming we split with Missouri like my scenario you dislike states, that likely gives us a 3rd top 50 win. Add in that ole miss and LSU are both close to top 50 and you're talking now 4 or 5 top 50 wins, that's more than enough.
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Ok so now we're talking about everyone taking care of business and moving up accordingly? You act as though my point of teams slipping and negatively affecting our RPI is impossible, while promoting the idea that we'll be in because everyone will take care of business thereby boosting our resume. Your initial arguments appear to exclude or diminish the role that our opponents (past and future) success or failures play in our chances. Now you're using that as a proving point, assuming OM and LSU maintain/improve their respective standings.
 
#568
#568
bowlinggreenvol said:
You didn't say we can lose to both UF and Mizzou and get in relatively easily? Maybe re-read the post I quoted you on. Maybe I'm to "dense" to understand someone's opinion that's written as straight forward as yours was.
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I said AT Mizzou, meaning we beat them at our place and go 6-2, not 5-3.
 
#569
#569
bowlinggreenvol said:
Ok so now we're talking about everyone taking care of business and moving up accordingly? You act as though my point of teams slipping and negatively affecting our RPI is impossible, while promoting the idea that we'll be in because everyone will take care of business thereby boosting our resume. Your initial arguments appear to exclude or diminish the role that our opponents (past and future) success or failures play in our chances. Now you're using that as a proving point, assuming OM and LSU maintain/improve their respective standings.
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No. You wanted to bring in that others may fall off, I'm adding others could play better. Take it for what it is now, we currently have 2 top 50 wins which is more than enough to get into the dance. Add in that we still have 3 more chances to beat a top 50 team and we're in a decent spot.

6-2 and this team is in
 
#571
#571
bleedingTNorange said:
I said AT Mizzou, meaning we beat them at our place and go 6-2, not 5-3.
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My 3rd loss was going back to the Vandy game last week. Vandy, UF and Mizzou 1x over the last 10. I'm done with this scenario BS anyway. Considering neither one of us are on the committee there's not point arguing it. I believe this team has work to do and you think they're squarely in. They can easily win out and just as easily lose 3-4. No one should feel secure till it's all played out and our name is called. If you don't agree with that then we've both wasted a lot of finger energy.
 
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#572
#572
bowlinggreenvol said:
My 3rd loss was going back to the Vandy game last week. Vandy, UF and Mizzou 1x over the last 10. I'm done with this scenario BS anyway. Considering neither one of us are on the committee there's not point arguing it. I believe this team has work to do and you think they're squarely in. They can easily win out and just as easily lose 3-4. No one should feel secure till it's all played out and our name is called. If you don't agree with that then we've both wasted a lot of finger energy.
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I hardly think we are a lock by any means, however we are in a decent spot, a much better spot than either of the previous 2 years.
 
#573
#573
bowlinggreenvol said:
My 3rd loss was going back to the Vandy game last week. Vandy, UF and Mizzou 1x over the last 10. I'm done with this scenario BS anyway. Considering neither one of us are on the committee there's not point arguing it. I believe this team has work to do and you think they're squarely in. They can easily win out and just as easily lose 3-4. No one should feel secure till it's all played out and our name is called. If you don't agree with that then we've both wasted a lot of finger energy.
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No one believes that we are squarely in, and if that is what you are really suggesting, then it's not true. As of today, we are probably in, but we are in a better spot than previous years. Of course, there is work to do- we only have 15 wins. 95% of the teams still have work to do. IMO, it is all about wins at this point, not necessarily who we beat. If we get to 22 wins (no matter who), we are in. If we get to 21, then we are probably on the bubble. If we get to 20, then we probably need to win a couple in the SECT. At this point, the RPI doesn't change too much unless you just tank.
 
#574
#574
VolGee4 said:
No one believes that we are squarely in, and if that is what you are really suggesting, then it's not true. As of today, we are probably in, but we are in a better spot than previous years. Of course, there is work to do- we only have 15 wins. 95% of the teams still have work to do. IMO, it is all about wins at this point, not necessarily who we beat. If we get to 22 wins (no matter who), we are in. If we get to 21, then we are probably on the bubble. If we get to 20, then we probably need to win a couple in the SECT. At this point, the RPI doesn't change too much unless you just tank.
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Ok I guess I somehow misinterpreted BTO's post where he explicitly said even if we lose to UF and Mizzou (1x) we're still in. That sounds like someone who is sure of their stance. That's the quote I went off of. Now if you want to pick me apart for questioning his confidence in that statement then go for it. I guess I'm taking the stance that I would not be surprised if we were left out assuming we don't beat UF and Mizzou at least once. I want us in as much as anyone on here but if I'm on the committee I would critique our resume as much as any and question if they really belong.
 
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#575
#575
bowlinggreenvol said:
Ok I guess I somehow misinterpreted BTO's post where he explicitly said even if we lose to UF and Mizzou (1x) we're still in. That sounds like someone who is sure of their stance. That's the quote I went off of. Now if you want to pick me apart for questioning his confidence in that statement then go for it. I guess I'm taking the stance that I would not be surprised if we were left out assuming we don't beat UF and Mizzou at least once. I want us in as much as anyone on here but if I'm on the committee I would critique our resume as much as any and question if they really belong.
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We need to beat Missouri at home, which we can do. But this team is in far better shape than the last two years, and our strength of schedule will help. We just can't slip up against the inferior opponents.
 
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