RPI Discussion.

#451
#451
bleedingTNorange said:
As I thought lol

Odds are currently just about even, and you're scared, lot of fun you are at a casino I bet.
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Yes, you're wanting to wager with me on something that I already agree with. Are you that f'n stupid kid? It appears so. Put a seed line on there. Show some real balls. You're doing nothing that what the vast majority people already expected. You're a real risk taker! You've already shown your stupidity that the SEC would get 7 teams in the NCAA tourney. Go for more.
 
#453
#453
OrangeBalls said:
I'd like to see who honestly here thought UT was not going to make it into the tourney pre-season. bTNo thinks he has come up with this grand wager that it somehow is an accomplishment for UT to get into the tourney. I never said they wouldn't make the tourney. I've said we're sitting here in year 3 square on the bubble yet again like we have been for the last 3 years. We are in better shape this year than the other 2 years, but damnation, this team should be solidly in the damn tourney with this talent in this garbage conference. Hell, you along with others would bash Memphis for beating up on a bunch of garbage teams in Conf USA. Hell, the SEC is no better than Conf USA right now, yet we still can't beat the bad teams. That's pathetic.
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You don't understand how odds work and change do you?
 
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#454
#454
OrangeBalls said:
Yes, you're wanting to wager with me on something that I already agree with. Are you that f'n stupid kid? It appears so. Put a seed line on there. Show some real balls. You're doing nothing that what the vast majority people already expected. You're a real risk taker! You've already shown your stupidity that the SEC would get 7 teams in the NCAA tourney. Go for more.
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Like I said, odds are almost even, it's not like it's a 90% chance Tennessee makes it. The season predictions now have us finishing 19-11 regular season, that would put us squarely on the bubble with work to do in the SECT.

The odds are right around 50/50....how much in your odds do the favor need to be before you're comfortable making a bet?
 
#457
#457
bleedingTNorange said:
Like I said, odds are almost even, it's not like it's a 90% chance Tennessee makes it. The season predictions now have us finishing 19-11 regular season, that would put us squarely on the bubble with work to do in the SECT.

The odds are right around 50/50....how much in your odds do the favor need to be before you're comfortable making a bet?
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What are you betting? What are you trying to prove? That you are showing your love for Martin? That UT can make the dance? F'n A kid, I expected them not only to make the dance but to be no worse than a 8 or 9 seed. It's comical that they're in this position.
 
#461
#461
bleedingTNorange said:
2 different sites have us predicted at 6-3 down the stertch, so right they're you're wrong.
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Look at the betting lines. Realtimerpi.com had UT losing by 3, yet the line was UT favored by 6 by game time. It went up almost a full point. Check RPIforecast.com. We're favored to win every game but 2 down the stretch like I said. Those are the Mizzou and Fla games. We should be favored to beat every garbage team left on the schedule except Fla at home and Mizzou on the road.

Five of our last nine games are against teams with triple digit RPI's, one is against Vandy who we'll be favored by 10, and the other three against Mizzou (x 2) and Fla.
 
#462
#462
OrangeBalls said:
Look at the betting lines. Realtimerpi.com had UT losing by 3, yet the line was UT favored by 6 by game time. It went up almost a full point. Check RPIforecast.com. We're favored to win every game but 2 down the stretch like I said. Those are the Mizzou and Fla games. We should be favored to beat every garbage team left on the schedule except Fla at home and Mizzou on the road.

Five of our last nine games are against teams with triple digit RPI's, one is against Vandy who we'll be favored by 10, and the other three against Mizzou (x 2) and Fla.
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It's called a cumulative effect. There's smaller percentages of winning certain games, so they're basically calculating that given 2 or 3 low % chance of winning games, we will drop at least 1.

Like I said, their percentages have us a 6-3 down the stretch which puts us squarely on the bubble and needing to do something in the SECT.

Right now NCAA chances are right around 50%
 
#463
#463
bleedingTNorange said:
It's called a cumulative effect. There's smaller percentages of winning certain games, so they're basically calculating that given 2 or 3 low % chance of winning games, we will drop at least 1.

Like I said, their percentages have us a 6-3 down the stretch which puts us squarely on the bubble and needing to do something in the SECT.

Right now NCAA chances are right around 50%
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So, you don't think UT will be favored in 7 of the 9 games that are left on the schedule? Check that schedule out. We play 2 teams worth a damn. We should beat everyone but those two and should beat Mizzou at home.

That we're even having to discuss bubble possibilities just shows the pathetic job Martin has done so far.
 
#464
#464
OrangeBalls said:
So, you don't think UT will be favored in 7 of the 9 games that are left on the schedule? Check that schedule out. We play 2 teams worth a damn. We should beat everyone but those two and should beat Mizzou at home.

That we're even having to discuss bubble possibilities just shows the pathetic job Martin has done so far.
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Guessing you failed math?
 
#465
#465
I'm no statistician, but I think you have to add up the probabilities of losing each game if you want to predict the outcome of a stretch of games.
 
#466
#466
Velo Vol said:
I'm no statistician, but I think you have to add up the probabilities of losing each game if you want to predict the outcome of a stretch of games.
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Correct sir

While we may be favored in x amount of games, that doesn't mean there's an equal chance you win that amount of games.

For example preseason we were favored in around 23 games iirc, yet predictions by those same computers had us going 19-11 iirc.

CAVOL or golfballs could probably provide a better summary than mine.
 
#467
#467
bleedingTNorange said:
Correct sir

While we may be favored in x amount of games, that doesn't mean there's an equal chance you win that amount of games.

For example preseason we were favored in around 23 games iirc, yet predictions by those same computers had us going 19-11 iirc.

CAVOL or golfballs could probably provide a better summary than mine.
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I can make the summary simple....even the cpu's thinks Zo sucks.
 
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#468
#468
volbeast33 said:
I can make the summary simple....even the cpu's thinks Zo sucks.
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It's actually something like that. Basically the computers say we will likely lose a couple we shouldn't, they've been pretty damn accurate.

Now explain that to orangeballs for me, thanks.
 
#469
#469
bleedingTNorange said:
Guessing you failed math?
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No, I passed with flying colors. That's why I'm not stuck at a mundane gov't job making hundreds of posts on here every day of my life.

You continuing to defend Martin and the sh*t show last night is quite the spectacle though.
 
#470
#470
OrangeBalls said:
No, I passed with flying colors. That's why I'm not stuck at a mundane gov't job making hundreds of posts on here every day of my life.

You continuing to defend Martin and the sh*t show last night is quite the spectacle though.
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So you still don't understand what I'm saying guessing by the personal shots? Gotcha.
 
#471
#471
bleedingTNorange said:
So you still don't understand what I'm saying guessing by the personal shots? Gotcha.
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No, I completely understand. I don't expect UT to win out. I do expect them to beat the teams they should beat. We've already lost to UTEP, NC State, A & M and Vandy who we were supposed to beat. We have only beaten LSU in SEC play who we weren't supposed to beat. We have narrowed our margin of error down to almost nothing. It's put up or shut up time and right now we're not getting it done. We can't afford a loss to A & M, Miss St, Auburn or the like down the stretch, but I'm sure we'll drop another turd in the punch bowl. That's what a Martin team does best.
 
#472
#472
We really, really need Xavier to beat Providence this weekend. That win has to stay on the positive side of 50.
 
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