RPI and Bracketology

#126
#126

RPI (Live) 2026 College Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2026 College Baseball RPI (Rating Percentage Index) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

did Warren Nolan have a stroke sometime on Saturday. He put int the game three results but not the second game. And it's not changed yet. It's even a topic on X

Other sites have their own take on RPI (even Nolan's is a estimate of the official RPI the committee uses.

Boyd's World as Tennessee at 29 NCAA Division I Baseball -- Pseudo-RPI's
D1 has Tennessee at 28 D1Baseball's RPI Nitty Gritty (up 4 spots on the week)
NCAA.com has Tennessee at 28 DI Baseball Rankings - RPI | NCAA.com
 
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#127
#127
Can Tennessee be ranked today?

Polls came out later today.

We may see one of the major polls/rankings sneak Tennessee in around 25 but I would not hold your breath.

If you look at the D1's rankings last week and thee teams records

20 Coastal Carolina 2-2
21 Oklahoma State 3-1
22 Arizona State 2-1
23 Boston College 0-3
24 Nebraska 4-0
25 Cincinnati 2-1

Coastal Carolina and Boston College will drop out but that's it. There's an awful lot of teams for Tennessee to jump over. Polls mean nothing anyway.


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Boston College:

BTW, Boston College got EXPOSED over the weekend. Sure they were playing the #2 team in the nation but they were playing them in Chestnut HIll and got shelled 0-9, 1-14, and 2-15. Only the last game was run rulled because Tech scored 5 runs in the 9th in game 2. In game 2. Tech scored 11 runs in the last three innings (3-3-5)

Boston College avoided a lot of the ACC power teams. Against the quality teams they did play.


Ga Tech. 2-15, 1-14,0-9
@ UNC 6-1,2-5, 7-8
UVA 1-3, 17-0,5.3

that's 3-6 with six games at home.

Against the second tier
@ Miami 3-5, 9-5,8-7
@ NC St 1-5, 12-5, 2-4
@Clemson 4-14, 3-4, 8-4

That's 4-5

This team had no business being ranked!

Their RPI is still 33. Their overall SOS is only 53 and the OOC SOS is 261
They are 17-13 in the ACC (They feasted on VaTech, Notre Dame, Cal, and Duke)

I don't think the Eagles have any business in the NCAA tournament but they''ll likely make it.

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Virginia Tech:

Virginia Tech is in trouble.
They currently set at rpi 47. (44 in Boyds, 47 d1, 47 NCAA)
29-23 and 15-15 with a mediocre 14-8 non conf record.

They were has high was 22 in RPI in early season (after losing to Tenn. Miss State and Texas A&M and losing all three games) and again got to 23 in week 7 after conference play began and beating Duke.

The did take the home series against Clemson last week
In fact, they have not done all that bad.
Since losing at BC in mid April, the Hokes won series against Pitt, NC State, @ Cal, and Clemson. However, those wins are not resulting in RPI boosts.

the conveniently cancelled the Marshall game last week. They went 1-2 against UNCG.

They were ranked last week at 26 by NCBWA

They finished 7th in the ACC which is normally enough, but that RPI is high.

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Vanderbilt RPI

For those who may be curious

Boyds 75
NCAA 73
D1 75
Warren Nolan 73

The second loss last weekend to Missouri was the nail in the coffin. They will need to win five games this week in the NCAA and win the automatic bid to get in. I surmise, if they win all five games their RPI would still be about 60

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SEC RPIs (by standings)

Nolan | D1 | Boyds | NCAA

UGA 14 | 14 | 13 | 14
Texas 2 | 4 | 4 | 4
Texas A&M 11 | 12 | 11
Alabama 6 | 6 | 7 | 6
Florida 9 | 10 | 10 | 10
Auburn 3 | 3 | 3 | 3
Arkansas 25 | 27 | 26 | 25
Miss State 12 | 13 | 14 | 12
Ole Miss 15 | 15 | 15 | 15
Tennessee 31 | 28 | 29 | 28
Oklahoma 20 | 21 | 22 | 21
Vanderbilt 73 | 75 | 75 | 73
Kentucky 34 | 34 | 33 | 34
LSU 69 | 69 | 69 | 69
South Carolina 132 | 134 | 128 | 133
Missouri 116 | 116 | 130 | 115

RED : Likely national seeds
GREEN: Likely host
BLUE: Clinched tourney spot
Violet: Bubble Team

A&M losing series at Ole Miss has cost them any shot at national seed.
Florida may eventually get A&M spot in the top-8 but they have a lot of teams to jump
Miss State losing at home to Auburn puts their host bid in danger. Their 2nd round game in Hoover may be needed.
Kentucky better beat Vanderbilt Tuesday afternoon. Vanderbilt has already beat them twice this season in Lexington. The Wildcats can't count on just having 13 wins.
The bottom four teams will need to win Hoover tourney to get into NCAA
No underclassmen on the LSU roster should feel safe with all the money that was spent before 2026.
How long with Tim Corbin stick around with all his advantages melting away?
Alabama may be the worst national seed of all time. Pitching and defense does not support their numbers
A few of the SEC teams hosting regions are capable of losing at home. Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M are the three that pops to mind.
For teams not hosting; Arkansas, Miss State, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are more than capable of winning on road with the right matchups.
I looked at Texas's resume. They have bad losses. 2 convincing losses to Tennessee, shutout loss to Vanderbilt, 2 game sweep by A&M, Closer than necessary series at SC. (1 loss), midweek losses to Houston and Tarleton. Maybe they need to be on upset watch in 2 weeks?

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Struggles with the bottom dwellers:

Against the top 8 teams in the SEC standings Tennessee finished 8-4 (.667). Against the bottom eight. Tennessee finished 7-11 (.389)
This is the primary reason the Vols will be on the road for the NCAA tourney. The Tennessee schedule was measurably softer than expected, but the Vols suffered against softer teams.
Or course, at the start of the conference season, no one expected Vanderbilt, LSU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee to all finish in the bottom half of the conference

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SEC Down?:

This is a down year in the SEC. They're still the best conference but the gap is smaller. I also think the ACC is clearly down as well.
 
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#128
#128
How many crazy walk-offs did we have this year? I remember the Vandy series that was just abnormally weird, and Georgia as well. Got to think some strange events have affected the “30,000” foot view of the program?
 
#129
#129
I watched the latest D1 Nerdcast:



They have Tennessee at #24 in a "pod" with # 1 USC. #22 Cincinnati, and #23 Oklahoma State

That pod would be paired off with the 9-12 pod of

Southern Miss
Florida
Florida State
West Virginia

Tennessee would not go to Florida
Cincinnati and Oklahoma State would not go to West Virginia

Playing the averages, that would infer Tennessee goes to Morgantown per D1's logic.
For some reason, sending USC to Hattiesburg sounds like a hoot and a holler.
Then a coin toss with Cincinnati/Oklahoma State on who goes to Gainesville and who goes to Tallahassee.

In the unlikely event that D1 was 100% correct, #13 WVU would be paired with #6 Texas who looks like they would be hosting UCSB, Wake Forest, Boston College, or Jacksonville State. (I would guess UCSB) Texas couldn't ask for a better #2 seed than the Gauchos. or even the Deacons, BC Eagles, or Gamecocks)
 
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#131
#131
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#133
#133
For those who are more knowledgeable than me about RPI, rankings, etc. How can UNC be ranked #2 or #3 across multiple polls and still have us (ranked #23 or #24) paired in a regional? Shouldn’t they have earned the right to play a 2 seed outside the top 25 rankings? Is this simply because of geography? I’d be very upset if I was UNC and saw UT as the 2 seed.
 
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#134
#134
hooperj75 said:
For those who are more knowledgeable than me about RPI, rankings, etc. How can UNC be ranked #2 or #3 across multiple polls and still have us (ranked #23 or #24) paired in a regional? Shouldn’t they have earned the right to play a 2 seed outside the top 25 rankings? Is this simply because of geography? I’d be very upset if I was UNC and saw UT as the 2 seed.
Click to expand...

There is a new model this year that no one knows how it will work.

Instead of just seeding teams 1-16 like they have done in the last 26 years, they are actually seeing 1-32. In past years they would try to have teams from the next 16 teams play near themselves in region play unless they were in the same conference.

HOWEVER, it appears there is a caveat. Instead of seeding straight 1-32 and letting 32 play 1 and so on. They are still trying to prevent teams from the same conference from meeting in regional. They are doing this by letting teams 17-20 pair off with teams 13-16 and making the pairings through the pods. So instead of 16 automatically playing 17, they may play 18,19, or 20.
 
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#136
#136
D1 projections:
d1baseball.com

2026 NCAA Field Of 64 Projections: May 18 • D1Baseball

The very latest D1Baseball NCAA tournament projections are out with just one change in terms of the Top 16 seeds.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

Tennessee is second seed at #9 Southern Miss. with TCU at #3 and perennial giant killer Illinois-Chicago at #4
That region is paired against #8 Texas A&M with UCS, UTSA, and Lamar.

Last 4
NC State
East Carolina
Kentucky
Michigan

First 4 Out
Troy
Texas State
Kent State (they've fallen on hard times late in season.
South Alabama

4 To watch:
SEMO
Purdue
UAB
Vanderbilt


the comments bring up good points.

* Mississippi State only has four SEC series wins but are listed as host. Several seasons ago, Ole Miss was told they could not host because they only won 4 series.
* Miss State did win a single series against an SEC teams with a winning records and 9 of thei 16 SEC wins were against the lowest four teams.
* Oregon State is not listed as a host (worse? they are going to Eugene) Beavers are being punished for being abandoned in the conference musical chairs
* Georgia clearly had the easiest SEC schedule as they play all the bottom feeders (LSU, SC, Mizzou) and only played a combined 25 Q1/Q2 games
* Arkansas at Nebraska would be the highest profile regional with Van Horn returning to Nebraska (see if you can spot a certain Smart A$$ comment by myself.
* Alabama has no business being seeded above Southern Miss

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IMHO, Nebraska has ZERO business hosting a region. They won 1 game against Auburn and got blitzed in the other two. They lost two games to pedestrian Michigan team. They were swept be a terrible Ohio State team. They are a product of a mediocre big10 east and still lost too many games against midwest teams who simply don't give a damn about the sport. Their best series win was at home against USC who also has no business being ranked. I've never had respect for Nebraska. Only Notre Dame has been propped up more by the NCAA.
 
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#137
#137
fryeguy93 said:
There is a new model this year that no one knows how it will work.

Instead of just seeding teams 1-16 like they have done in the last 26 years, they are actually seeing 1-32. In past years they would try to have teams from the next 16 teams play near themselves in region play unless they were in the same conference.

HOWEVER, it appears there is a caveat. Instead of seeding straight 1-32 and letting 32 play 1 and so on. They are still trying to prevent teams from the same conference from meeting in regional. They are doing this by letting teams 17-20 pair off with teams 13-16 and making the pairings through the pods. So instead of 16 automatically playing 17, they may play 18,19, or 20.
Click to expand...
If that's so, does that mean if we are say seeded 23, we would play as the no. 2 in the No. 10 region? We should fall somewhere in the orange range.

1 32
2 31
3 30
4 29
5 28
6 27
7 26
8 25
9 24
10 23
11 22
12 21
13 20
14 19
15 18
16 17
 
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#139
#139
Ghost of Archvol said:
If that's so, does that mean if we are say seeded 23, we would play as the no. 2 in the No. 10 region? We should fall somewhere in the orange range.

1 32
2 31
3 30
4 29
5 28
6 27
7 26
8 25
9 24
10 23
11 22
12 21
13 20
14 19
15 18
16 17
Click to expand...
Think in groups of four ( I think)

13-14-15-16
20-19-18-17

9-10-11-12
24-23-22-21

5-6-7-8
28-27-26-25

1-2-3-4
32-31-30-29

So D1 has us as a 24 seed playing the nine. However, we may artificially be 24. If we 22 we would be paired with Florida.

It gives flexibility to avoid conference matchups in the first round.
 
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#141
#141
BTW, D1 agrees with me seemingly that WVU would not see an SEC team in their region. As VaTEch and Bucknell play as the closest 3/4 and they ship in USC as #2. The NCAA protects the northern most teams

There's also no SEC teams in the 1 or 16 regions. Even though Virginia, Campbell and Tarleton all must travel thousands of miles. No chance an SEC team wins that pod.

At 2/15 the 1 seeds are both not SEC but the 2 seeds are. And the 2 seeds are teams struggling down the stretch in OU and OM. That also looks suspicious. Little chance the SEC team wins that pod

SEC teams are paired against each other in the 3/14 in UGA and Miss State. Once again, UGA is protected from facing top tier SEC teams. Great chance SEC wins that pod. But watch Mercer as the 3 seed in Athens.

#4 UNC does not have an SEV team and are paired against 13 Nebraska with Arkansas. Very little chance the SEC makes it to CWS in that pod.

#5/#12 Texas and West Virginia. Texas is the only SEC team in that pod. 50/50 chance Texas wins. I'm not sold on the Longhorns as they are a year away.

#6/#11 Alabama is the most overrated national seed in NCAA history vs. Florida State. I don't think either top seed wins their regions. Place chips on Jacksonville State at Alabama

#7/#10 Auburn and Florida paired. Great chance of seeing an SEC team win the pod . #3 seed ULL in Auburn as a dark horse

#8/#9 A&M and Southern Miss (Tennessee is 2 seed in Hattiesburg.) UCSB and UTSA are tough foes in College Station. Not sure if Tennessee could win if they only have 2 starters even if they won game 2. TCU is too good to throw midweek starter.
 
#148
#148
fryeguy93 said:
D1 projections:
d1baseball.com

2026 NCAA Field Of 64 Projections: May 18 • D1Baseball

The very latest D1Baseball NCAA tournament projections are out with just one change in terms of the Top 16 seeds.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

Tennessee is second seed at #9 Southern Miss. with TCU at #3 and perennial giant killer Illinois-Chicago at #4
That region is paired against #8 Texas A&M with UCS, UTSA, and Lamar.

Last 4
NC State
East Carolina
Kentucky
Michigan

First 4 Out
Troy
Texas State
Kent State (they've fallen on hard times late in season.
South Alabama

4 To watch:
SEMO
Purdue
UAB
Vanderbilt


the comments bring up good points.

* Mississippi State only has four SEC series wins but are listed as host. Several seasons ago, Ole Miss was told they could not host because they only won 4 series.
* Miss State did win a single series against an SEC teams with a winning records and 9 of thei 16 SEC wins were against the lowest four teams.
* Oregon State is not listed as a host (worse? they are going to Eugene) Beavers are being punished for being abandoned in the conference musical chairs
* Georgia clearly had the easiest SEC schedule as they play all the bottom feeders (LSU, SC, Mizzou) and only played a combined 25 Q1/Q2 games
* Arkansas at Nebraska would be the highest profile regional with Van Horn returning to Nebraska (see if you can spot a certain Smart A$$ comment by myself.
* Alabama has no business being seeded above Southern Miss

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IMHO, Nebraska has ZERO business hosting a region. They won 1 game against Auburn and got blitzed in the other two. They lost two games to pedestrian Michigan team. They were swept be a terrible Ohio State team. They are a product of a mediocre big10 east and still lost too many games against midwest teams who simply don't give a damn about the sport. Their best series win was at home against USC who also has no business being ranked. I've never had respect for Nebraska. Only Notre Dame has been propped up more by the NCAA.
Click to expand...
I wonder if D1 remembered that TCU is Josh Elander's alma mater when they made these projections
 
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