RPI and Bracketology

[VolGee4]

I understand that the RPI isn’t the sole determination, but I’ve looked at it over the years in baseball and basketball. Obviously, basketball has moved on to the NET and other analytics.

1. RPI is flawed. It’s the opponents’ records. Kentucky shouldn’t be that close to us in the rankings. Coastal Carolina has the exact same record, slightly easier schedule, and is at least 5 spots ahead of us (probably when Warren Nolan gets corrected).

2. That said, I don’t know why we don’t try to schedule a few more quality midweek games. We did a year or two ago with Kansas State and BC. I know geography is an issue, but the Bellarmine’s, West Georgia’s, Oakland’s, Presbyterian’s are RPI killers. Vandy played MTSU, Indiana State, and Troy, which are much better programs. Their schedule is worse though because they had a 3 game series with North Dakota State and Marist and got USCe and Mizzou in conference.

Just food for thought.

 

[vol66]

I understand that the RPI isn’t the sole determination, but I’ve looked at it over the years in baseball and basketball. Obviously, basketball has moved on to the NET and other analytics.

1. RPI is flawed. It’s the opponents’ records. Kentucky shouldn’t be that close to us in the rankings. Coastal Carolina has the exact same record, slightly easier schedule, and is at least 5 spots ahead of us (probably when Warren Nolan gets corrected).

2. That said, I don’t know why we don’t try to schedule a few more quality midweek games. We did a year or two ago with Kansas State and BC. I know geography is an issue, but the Bellarmine’s, West Georgia’s, Oakland’s, Presbyterian’s are RPI killers. Vandy played MTSU, Indiana State, and Troy, which are much better programs. Their schedule is worse though because they had a 3 game series with North Dakota State and Marist and got USCe and Mizzou in conference.

Just food for thought.

2. This year we had a new staff and largely new players. I don’t think it’s uncalled for to have a kinda OOC schedule while they try to figure out who has promise. Of course, trying to figure out who ya have going forward and where recruiting goes is very important for a first year staff. My own take is the staff has made marked improvements from day one up until now.

We’re alright.

 

[TheDirector]

I understand that the RPI isn’t the sole determination, but I’ve looked at it over the years in baseball and basketball. Obviously, basketball has moved on to the NET and other analytics.

1. RPI is flawed. It’s the opponents’ records. Kentucky shouldn’t be that close to us in the rankings. Coastal Carolina has the exact same record, slightly easier schedule, and is at least 5 spots ahead of us (probably when Warren Nolan gets corrected).

2. That said, I don’t know why we don’t try to schedule a few more quality midweek games. We did a year or two ago with Kansas State and BC. I know geography is an issue, but the Bellarmine’s, West Georgia’s, Oakland’s, Presbyterian’s are RPI killers. Vandy played MTSU, Indiana State, and Troy, which are much better programs. Their schedule is worse though because they had a 3 game series with North Dakota State and Marist and got USCe and Mizzou in conference.

Just food for thought.

I was expecting a bigger jump when we took 2 of 3 from the 3rd ranked team last weekend and then 2 of 3 from Oklahoma on the road. It's frustrating. I don't know how to make the math work for Mercer? Their SOS is a joke and their Quad 1 record exposes who they really are yet they somehow remain highly ranked.

 

[vol66]

I was expecting a bigger jump when we took 2 of 3 from the 3rd ranked team last weekend and then 2 of 3 from Oklahoma on the road. It's frustrating. I don't know how to make the math work for Mercer? Their SOS is a joke and their Quad 1 record exposes who they really are yet they somehow remain highly ranked.

As of today, Mercer is an automatic qualifier, gotta see how it shakes out.

 

[hUTch2002]

I was expecting a bigger jump when we took 2 of 3 from the 3rd ranked team last weekend and then 2 of 3 from Oklahoma on the road. It's frustrating. I don't know how to make the math work for Mercer? Their SOS is a joke and their Quad 1 record exposes who they really are yet they somehow remain highly ranked.

It appears the formula has no true SOS weighting. It tries to account for that with opponents’ opponents winning percentage but that’s flawed because beating 34-19 Tarleton State is basically the same for our opponents as beating 36-20 Ole Miss.

 

[WillisWG]

RPI 28

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/51612/teams/614782/team_sheet

 

[fryeguy93]

Just remember
RPI is not the only metric for the committee I’m

Polls
Conference records and finish
KPI
NET rankings
Common opponents
Eye test
Head to head

RPI gets a lot press but it’s only one leg


Tennessee is #24 in kpi

 

[VolGee4]

2. This year we had a new staff and largely new players. I don’t think it’s uncalled for to have a kinda OOC schedule while they try to figure out who has promise. Of course, trying to figure out who ya have going forward and where recruiting goes is very important for a first year staff. My own take is the staff has made marked improvements from day one up until now.

We’re alright.

Oh, I agree. But TV had some years with poor midweek seasons. Bruce Pearl was great at projecting what low majors and mid majors were going to be good and scheduling them. Barnes similarly does that as he’s said they look at who might contend for their conference. But, playing teams that barely win 10 games is a killer to your RPI.

 

[fryeguy93]

 

[VolGee4]

I was expecting a bigger jump when we took 2 of 3 from the 3rd ranked team last weekend and then 2 of 3 from Oklahoma on the road. It's frustrating. I don't know how to make the math work for Mercer? Their SOS is a joke and their Quad 1 record exposes who they really are yet they somehow remain highly ranked.

It goes back to the RPI formula. We’ve played 21 Q4 teams, which means 21 poor teams. Mercer has played 28. But their extra wins and especially record at home (29-2) give them a bump. Losing at home dings you in the RPI. We are 28-10. Even winning neutral games is better. The quad records don’t factor into the formula- they are the result of the rankings themselves.

 

[fryeguy93]

Oh, I agree. But TV had some years with poor midweek seasons. Bruce Pearl was great at projecting what low majors and mid majors were going to be good and scheduling them. Barnes similarly dies that as he’s said they look at who might contend for their conference. But, playing teams that barely win 10 games is a killer to your RPI.

Is still a crap shoot.

Northern Kentucky and Wright State were scheduled and projected to do well. Neither did.

Kent was scheduled and they were projected to win or finish second in their conference
SC Upstate was worse than recent seasons.
LSU and Vanderbilt taken the same season

Worse than this…. Tennessee lost a helluva lot of games against these teams anyway.

Overall, this schedule was not as soft as you think it was and Tennessee seemingly played up or down to their opponent’s level every series. The team that finished 4-2 against Texas and Oklahoma had no business going 1-5 against LSU and Vanderbilt. The team that should have taken 2 in Athens, crushed Mississippi State.

Still, 2025 Texas A&M (team with first year coach and far more experience and talent) would have killed to finish with 36 wins and top 30 RPI

 

[NighthawkVol]

Is still a crap shoot.

Northern Kentucky and Wright State were scheduled and projected to do well. Neither did.

Kent was scheduled and they were projected to win or finish second in their conference
SC Upstate was worse than recent seasons.
LSU and Vanderbilt taken the same season

Worse than this…. Tennessee lost a helluva lot of games against these teams anyway.

Overall, this schedule was not as soft as you think it was and Tennessee seemingly played up or down to their opponent’s level every series. The team that finished 4-2 against Texas and Oklahoma had no business going 1-5 against LSU and Vanderbilt. The team that should have taken 2 in Athens, crushed Mississippi State.

Still, 2025 Texas A&M (team with first year coach and far more experience and talent) would have killed to finish with 36 wins and top 30 RPI

That last sentence is what has me excited for next year and the future. What Elander has done in his first year is very promising. Not because he had a great record, but because of the way he got this team going at the end of the season. He’s growing into the job before our eyes. He’ll be much better next year.

 

[NighthawkVol]

This one has us in Morgantown WV, with West Virginia as the 1 and VT as the 2. If we got out of that one, going to Starkville for the Super. Give me this all day.

https://pearatings.com/cbase/d1/tournament/bracket/current

 

[VolGee4]

Is still a crap shoot.

Northern Kentucky and Wright State were scheduled and projected to do well. Neither did.

Kent was scheduled and they were projected to win or finish second in their conference
SC Upstate was worse than recent seasons.
LSU and Vanderbilt taken the same season

Worse than this…. Tennessee lost a helluva lot of games against these teams anyway.

Overall, this schedule was not as soft as you think it was and Tennessee seemingly played up or down to their opponent’s level every series. The team that finished 4-2 against Texas and Oklahoma had no business going 1-5 against LSU and Vanderbilt. The team that should have taken 2 in Athens, crushed Mississippi State.

Still, 2025 Texas A&M (team with first year coach and far more experience and talent) would have killed to finish with 36 wins and top 30 RPI

I agree. I never said the entire schedule was soft, but we played 21 Q4 games, the most by any SEC school. The SEC teams in the top 20 all played significantly less Q4 games. The tone of that response is that I’m highly critical of this season, and I’m not. I’m a very positive fan and am happy with what Elander has done. Being that this was an RPI thread, I was just explaining how the flaws of the RPI don’t help when you play 10 win teams. I just think “some” of the midweek schedule can be improved. Our program can generally beat a 20 win midmajor too. Northern Kentucky is not bringing it down that much. USC Upstate won 29 games, which is great. Oakland, West GA, and Presbyterian all won 13 games or less. Bellarmine won 19. Vandy and LSU are bringing it down. Just an area to improve on.

 

[vol66]

Oh, I agree. But TV had some years with poor midweek seasons. Bruce Pearl was great at projecting what low majors and mid majors were going to be good and scheduling them. Barnes similarly does that as he’s said they look at who might contend for their conference. But, playing teams that barely win 10 games is a killer to your RPI.

Baseball isn’t basketball, let’s start there. On talent alone, this year MIGHT be similar to CTV’s first year, based on pitching alone. But, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Besides, CTV had a shoulder to cry on and learn from, CJE doesn’t. In both cases, ya gotta start with the hand you didn’t create and in that regard, CTV didn’t have the same mountain to climb, Elander is filling big shoes.

 

[VolGee4]

Baseball isn’t basketball, let’s start there. On talent alone, this year MIGHT be similar to CTV’s first year, based on pitching alone. But, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Besides, CTV had a shoulder to cry on and learn from, CJE doesn’t. In both cases, ya gotta start with the hand you didn’t create and in that regard, CTV didn’t have the same mountain to climb, Elander is filling big shoes.

You guys are taking an RPI discussion somewhere else. The RPI formula was the same in both sports. It’s one reason why basketball went with something different. I’m not talking about a coaching job someone does. Strictly scheduling to gain more advantage.

 

[vol66]

You guys are taking an RPI discussion somewhere else. The RPI formula was the same in both sports. It’s one reason why basketball went with something different. I’m not talking about a coaching job someone does. Strictly scheduling to gain more advantage.

If you’re Rick Barnes, knowing team A and team B might be wildly different in talent, do you schedule accordingly, ya know, knowing at least part of the equation was settled before you even got here. If Warren Nolan is an indication, we don’t know where the baseball team (RPI) is after our 30 game SEC schedule is a day old.

 

[volman85]

It goes back to the RPI formula. We’ve played 21 Q4 teams, which means 21 poor teams. Mercer has played 28. But their extra wins and especially record at home (29-2) give them a bump. Losing at home dings you in the RPI. We are 28-10. Even winning neutral games is better. The quad records don’t factor into the formula- they are the result of the rankings themselves.

I see your explanation but I'm still confused at some of the rankings versus others. This is #8 USC resume, check out quad 1 record (1-10). It's like them not playing a team with rpi in 200s is weighted more than record against best competition.

 

[VolGee4]

If you’re Rick Barnes, knowing team A and team B might be wildly different in talent, do you schedule accordingly, ya know, knowing at least part of the equation was settled before you even got here. If Warren Nolan is an indication, we don’t know where the baseball team (RPI) is after our 30 game SEC schedule is a day old.

It’s not as much as talent as it is conference strength in baseball. The Sun Belt, American, MAC, C-USA are all solid mid majors that you can pull from. West Georgia and Bellarmine are very young D1 programs.

You don’t have to do it for it for all- just a couple. ETSU is annually good. Tennessee Tech and West Carolina and UNC-Asheville are usually below average.

Warren Nolan either has a glitch or hasn’t put in all the data. We will be about 29 or 30.

 

[VolGee4]

I see your explanation but I'm still confused at some of the rankings versus others. This is #8 USC resume, check out quad 1 record (1-10). It's like them not playing a team with rpi in 200s is weighted more than record against best competition.

The quad records are the RESULT of the rankings itself. The RPI is an index that ranks teams, and the quad records use those rankings to spit out records. The key number for USC (for the RPI, not tournament seeding) is they played 11 Q1 teams.

Teams on your schedule that go 12-38 or 13-35 are RPI killers because it’s based on your opponents’ records regardless of their schedule.

It’s why I believe KenPom is a better metric in basketball.

 

[vol66]

It’s not as much as talent as it is conference strength in baseball. The Sun Belt, American, MAC, C-USA are all solid mid majors that you can pull from. West Georgia and Bellarmine are very young D1 programs.

You don’t have to do it for it for all- just a couple. ETSU is annually good. Tennessee Tech and West Carolina and UNC-Asheville are usually below average.

Warren Nolan either has a glitch or hasn’t put in all the data. We will be about 29 or 30.

I think we end up around 26 or so, as it relates to scheduling Q2, hurt us, sure, but we held our own in Q1, and most certainly, a rookie HC is not stupid to consider the state of the roster and let’s be clear here, Barnes can play any schedule he wants, he has relationships, Elander has to build them, patience is a virtue.

 

[fryeguy93]

This one has us in Morgantown WV, with West Virginia as the 1 and VT as the 2. If we got out of that one, going to Starkville for the Super. Give me this all day.

https://pearatings.com/cbase/d1/tournament/bracket/current

That is dumbest bracket I’ve ever read.

Kentucky and Oklahoma are not going to be both be 2 seeds. Not that it matters I guess. And Virginia Tech is not a 3 seed

Finally, southern Miss as a top 10 team is not going to be a 2 seed anywhere

 

[fryeguy93]

Interesting RPI/KPI



RPI is 74 and KPI is 55

This explains why an SEC team with more than 13 wins will not get into tourney.

I thought vandy would need to make the finals but with these numbers they likely have to win the automatic spot.

Eye test plays a part but you at least need to be in range to even be looked at.

Their OOC schedule was terrible and the Doreknobs lost to many games in that schedule.

 

[fryeguy93]

Interesting RPI/KPI

View attachment 832593

RPI is 74 and KPI is 55

This explains why an SEC team with more than 13 wins will not get into tourney.

I thought vandy would need to make the finals but with these numbers they likely have to win the automatic spot.

Eye test plays a part but you at least need to be in range to even be looked at.

Their OOC schedule was terrible and the Doreknobs lost to many games in that schedule.

Here is further break down on DoreKnobs

 

[NighthawkVol]

Interesting RPI/KPI

View attachment 832593

RPI is 74 and KPI is 55

This explains why an SEC team with more than 13 wins will not get into tourney.

I thought vandy would need to make the finals but with these numbers they likely have to win the automatic spot.

Eye test plays a part but you at least need to be in range to even be looked at.

Their OOC schedule was terrible and the Doreknobs lost to many games in that schedule.

Good.