OGbabyaviVol
Performing horse rectal exams for a living
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Here @nicksjuzunk...let me help you out a little, and start the thread. Just need you to do your magic on the rest of it.
AND.....GO!!!
From @nicksjuzunk...better late than never!!
Date: Saturday, November 17th
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Network: SEC
The Vols, winners of 4 straight games travel to Columbia this week looking to become bowl eligible for the first time since Josh Dobbs was dropping bombs and jaw dropping runs all over the field. As impossible as that seems, that has been Tennessee's reality in recent years but fortunately, the bottom appears to have been hit during the first four games of the season and the Vols are firmly on the rebound as a program. Bowl eligibility seems almost an inevitability with Vanderbilt up next, but there is work to be done against Mizzou before taking on Vandy.
As for Missouri, what are they really playing for at this point? They sit at 5-5 but have a bowl ban for doing naughty things, and Santa frowns on that sort of thing. They have reached the point of the season where teams give up if they don't have a winning mentality, and let's be honest... Derek Dooley is on the staff, so... Anyways, after opening the season with a shocking loss to Wyoming, which I can only assume has young cowboys masquerading as football players, Mizzou rolled off 5 straight victories and there was talk of being "in the hunt for the SEC East -- and perhaps more -- after a hot start to 2019"... I kid you not. Peoples were talking New Year 6 Bowl. Well, the same media also thought the Vols would play to their Georgia State level all year and now both teams sit at 5-5 as Missouri has dropped 4 straight to SEC opponents.
Keys to Victory:
1. Bryant's health: A glance at Missouri's overall offensive production can be misleading. They actually average more yards than Tennessee, but the difference is on how things are playing out right now. Tennessee is on a roll, and Missouri appears to be rolling over. All of Missouri's production was coming with Kelly Bryant at QB. However, he has been dealing with a hamstring injury and they have lost 4 straight, with him losing against Vandy... ouch. He returned vs. Florida but was ineffective, passing for 204 and rushing 15 times for a whopping 19 yards. Essentially, if he's not playing well, Missouri will struggle to move the ball. During the last 4 games, Missouri has scored 27 points in total, which LSU thinks is a fairly nice quarter of football. Yep... Missouri is averaging 6.75 points per game over their last 4 games.
I'm a bit concerned that Kelly Bryant is going to be better this week and that Tennessee's recent success against the pass is more a result of playing poor passing teams than it is fantastic defense. As a result, I think Mizzou has some success through the air, though it's not going to blow our doors off. Mizzou WR's only have 1 SEC TD on the year.
2. Consistent Offense: Missouri, as usual, is pretty good on defense. In spite of giving up an eye popping 297 rushing yards to Kentucky, they actually rank 34th nationally in rush defense, yielding 131.7 YPG. Their pass defense is even better, 6th nationally, with only 165.9 yards per game. This is reminiscent of one of the late Fulmer years when Tennessee had a top 10 defense but absolutely anemic offense. Regarding the pass defense, part of this is the weakness of opponents, part of it is the offensive scheme of opponents and part of it is legit, but here is another facet of the story.
Pass attempts:
16 - Wyoming
11 - Vandy
16 - Ole Miss
7 - Kentucky
Still, opponents are only completing 51% of their passes so that's not all statistical wizardry. Most recently, Florida QB Kyle Trask had success against Mizzou last week with a QBR of 152.2 which is almost exactly what he has averaged for the previous 4 games vs Vandy, UGA, SC, LSU so on one hand you say that looks about average, but then you see LSU and UGA in that list and it gives you pause to think, maybe they are pretty good.
So what does Tennessee need to do here? The Vols have struggled to run the ball effectively this year, with 133 bland yards per game. That is going to be a tough match-up against Missouri which means Chaney will likely lean heavier on the passing game. Dan Mullen does an excellent job exploiting match-ups in the passing game and did so against Mizzou so you can bet Jim has been downing diet cherry cokes while reviewing that game film the last two weeks and has match-ups he looks forward to using. The physicality of Jennings and Calloway will be a huge factor here as you can expect them to challenge the defense not neccesarily with their speed, but with grown man strength. Expect Chaney to patiently setup a big play opportunity by showing a certain look and then flipping it on it's head with the same look, different play that can go for big yards. Expect Jarret to get the start but if he is ineffective, Maurer will be itching to get in. Missouri has struggled with mobile quarterbacks and the wildcat so expect Jauan Jennings to get a few touches... maybe more if he is effective from the QB position. Chaney may set up a Jennings pass too. If Maurer plays, which I expect he will unless JG is spotless in his performance, his mobility will be a needed boost.
3. Bring the Pressure: Missouri's OL has not been outstanding, and by not outstanding, I mean bad. Look for Pruitt and Ansley to dial up pressure from every corner of Columbia to keep Bryant nervous and to keep the running game locked down. Whether Bryant can run or not is a good question, but Missouri is tired and as I said before, maybe not playing for much besides the seniors, who are having their last game. This is the type of game that should end up looking really good for the Tennessee front 7's stat sheet and you can expect the bye-week to pay off dividends on how fresh the team looks up front.
Prediction:
This game comes down to coaching, health and match-ups. Tennessee gets the edge on health, benefiting from a bye-week which should have almost everyone ready to go full-speed. Although RB Larry Rountree has torched the Vols in the past, he's not the same player at this point in the season, averaging 35 YPG over the last 4. If Mizzou can't pass, Mizzou can't win. As for the Vols, it's pretty much the same deal... they need to pass to win and find enough grind on the ground to keep the defense honest. I think our coaches can find a way to out scheme Mizzou and we have enough talent at the right positions to exploit match-ups whereas Mizzou just doesn't. Special teams may be a factor if one team has a breakdown or a breakthrough. Turnovers are critical. It won't be as pretty as we'd like, but...
TN 20
Mizzou 7
AND.....GO!!!
From @nicksjuzunk...better late than never!!
Date: Saturday, November 17th
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Network: SEC
The Vols, winners of 4 straight games travel to Columbia this week looking to become bowl eligible for the first time since Josh Dobbs was dropping bombs and jaw dropping runs all over the field. As impossible as that seems, that has been Tennessee's reality in recent years but fortunately, the bottom appears to have been hit during the first four games of the season and the Vols are firmly on the rebound as a program. Bowl eligibility seems almost an inevitability with Vanderbilt up next, but there is work to be done against Mizzou before taking on Vandy.
As for Missouri, what are they really playing for at this point? They sit at 5-5 but have a bowl ban for doing naughty things, and Santa frowns on that sort of thing. They have reached the point of the season where teams give up if they don't have a winning mentality, and let's be honest... Derek Dooley is on the staff, so... Anyways, after opening the season with a shocking loss to Wyoming, which I can only assume has young cowboys masquerading as football players, Mizzou rolled off 5 straight victories and there was talk of being "in the hunt for the SEC East -- and perhaps more -- after a hot start to 2019"... I kid you not. Peoples were talking New Year 6 Bowl. Well, the same media also thought the Vols would play to their Georgia State level all year and now both teams sit at 5-5 as Missouri has dropped 4 straight to SEC opponents.
Keys to Victory:
1. Bryant's health: A glance at Missouri's overall offensive production can be misleading. They actually average more yards than Tennessee, but the difference is on how things are playing out right now. Tennessee is on a roll, and Missouri appears to be rolling over. All of Missouri's production was coming with Kelly Bryant at QB. However, he has been dealing with a hamstring injury and they have lost 4 straight, with him losing against Vandy... ouch. He returned vs. Florida but was ineffective, passing for 204 and rushing 15 times for a whopping 19 yards. Essentially, if he's not playing well, Missouri will struggle to move the ball. During the last 4 games, Missouri has scored 27 points in total, which LSU thinks is a fairly nice quarter of football. Yep... Missouri is averaging 6.75 points per game over their last 4 games.
I'm a bit concerned that Kelly Bryant is going to be better this week and that Tennessee's recent success against the pass is more a result of playing poor passing teams than it is fantastic defense. As a result, I think Mizzou has some success through the air, though it's not going to blow our doors off. Mizzou WR's only have 1 SEC TD on the year.
2. Consistent Offense: Missouri, as usual, is pretty good on defense. In spite of giving up an eye popping 297 rushing yards to Kentucky, they actually rank 34th nationally in rush defense, yielding 131.7 YPG. Their pass defense is even better, 6th nationally, with only 165.9 yards per game. This is reminiscent of one of the late Fulmer years when Tennessee had a top 10 defense but absolutely anemic offense. Regarding the pass defense, part of this is the weakness of opponents, part of it is the offensive scheme of opponents and part of it is legit, but here is another facet of the story.
Pass attempts:
16 - Wyoming
11 - Vandy
16 - Ole Miss
7 - Kentucky
Still, opponents are only completing 51% of their passes so that's not all statistical wizardry. Most recently, Florida QB Kyle Trask had success against Mizzou last week with a QBR of 152.2 which is almost exactly what he has averaged for the previous 4 games vs Vandy, UGA, SC, LSU so on one hand you say that looks about average, but then you see LSU and UGA in that list and it gives you pause to think, maybe they are pretty good.
So what does Tennessee need to do here? The Vols have struggled to run the ball effectively this year, with 133 bland yards per game. That is going to be a tough match-up against Missouri which means Chaney will likely lean heavier on the passing game. Dan Mullen does an excellent job exploiting match-ups in the passing game and did so against Mizzou so you can bet Jim has been downing diet cherry cokes while reviewing that game film the last two weeks and has match-ups he looks forward to using. The physicality of Jennings and Calloway will be a huge factor here as you can expect them to challenge the defense not neccesarily with their speed, but with grown man strength. Expect Chaney to patiently setup a big play opportunity by showing a certain look and then flipping it on it's head with the same look, different play that can go for big yards. Expect Jarret to get the start but if he is ineffective, Maurer will be itching to get in. Missouri has struggled with mobile quarterbacks and the wildcat so expect Jauan Jennings to get a few touches... maybe more if he is effective from the QB position. Chaney may set up a Jennings pass too. If Maurer plays, which I expect he will unless JG is spotless in his performance, his mobility will be a needed boost.
3. Bring the Pressure: Missouri's OL has not been outstanding, and by not outstanding, I mean bad. Look for Pruitt and Ansley to dial up pressure from every corner of Columbia to keep Bryant nervous and to keep the running game locked down. Whether Bryant can run or not is a good question, but Missouri is tired and as I said before, maybe not playing for much besides the seniors, who are having their last game. This is the type of game that should end up looking really good for the Tennessee front 7's stat sheet and you can expect the bye-week to pay off dividends on how fresh the team looks up front.
Prediction:
This game comes down to coaching, health and match-ups. Tennessee gets the edge on health, benefiting from a bye-week which should have almost everyone ready to go full-speed. Although RB Larry Rountree has torched the Vols in the past, he's not the same player at this point in the season, averaging 35 YPG over the last 4. If Mizzou can't pass, Mizzou can't win. As for the Vols, it's pretty much the same deal... they need to pass to win and find enough grind on the ground to keep the defense honest. I think our coaches can find a way to out scheme Mizzou and we have enough talent at the right positions to exploit match-ups whereas Mizzou just doesn't. Special teams may be a factor if one team has a breakdown or a breakthrough. Turnovers are critical. It won't be as pretty as we'd like, but...
TN 20
Mizzou 7
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