I keep hearing/reading 6 in the NFL, which is true. But there was only valuable production from 4 of the 6 last season.
If the O-line is improved, the weakness of the inexperience at QB will be reduced. More time and less dependence on the QB running. TE is the same. RB has Kelly. With Hurd gone and Kamara dinged up, Kelly had to step up. They never really had full bore Hurd/Kamara much of the season. So all we are saying is we need production from the back-ups like Hurd/Kamara got last year from Kelly. There is nothing lost at WR, IMO. Quality talent ready to step in with a year in the system to go with JJ. That tells me the O points per game will be at worst in the 28-30 range after a 34 and a 36 the past two seasons.
Nothing but being better can happen on D. The only real loss, which is big, is DB. There was next to no production from JRM and Cam. Add in the loss of Kirkland, K-Mac, Shy, Phillips, and others at various times. Kelly was dinged up all season, Berry, McDowell, Sapp, etc. That's over half of the starters of a productive D of the previous season. Add in no Rock providing S&C, limited production from Kongbo, and no Wiggins at CB. So let's drop that back down to what they gave up in 2015 - 21 points per game.
Special teams are neutral to better. Thats up to Medley to improve. Quality returners will be ready and Trevor is Trevor.
That keeps them at a positive margin of 7-9 points per game for 2017. It was 7 points last season at 36/29 with two dumb losses. In 2015 it was 34/21 with a couple heartbreak losses. Both were 9 win seasons. So win one of those two dumb/heartbreakers each season and that's 10. That gives Butch one brain fade loss as a cushion.
Now leave out the positive effect of Scott, Canales, Beard, Wells, Hoke, Warren, and a full package from Shoop. It's all in your opinion of Debord and Z versus Scott and Beard. I'm saying neutral to better. There is nothing but upgrade in the others including Shoop and S&C. I will add one final point. If Shoop and staff are for real, they will accomplish what Muschamp has done at each stop. In his second year the D's he assembled improve big time. It's a natural progression of installing the full D, techniques taught, new players working in, and S&C changes.
10+ and SECCG. Maybe a NC. :number1:
I did say "maybe".