Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#113,702
#113,702
ChattaTNVol said:
Preseason forecasting will soon be in full swing. For example, I expect ESPN to release their preseason FPI within the next week or so. There are a number of analytical data points that most of these outfits use to generate their preseason forecasts so it’s not just a gut check. Among the data points are head coaching tenure, returning production, recruiting rankings, etc. Everybody does it a little different. For example ESPN considers a returning QB to be worth 3.3 points added to the total of a team’s preseason FPI score.

Last year when I noted that Florida was attracting a lot of preseason love likely due to the huge amount of returning production they had, folks looked at the absolute value of Florida’s 2017 returning production and scoffed at the idea they could be all that much improved. This year the shoe is on the other foot, or rather it’s on our feet.

According to Bill Connelly at Football Study Hall, Tennessee has the 2nd most returning production of any FBS team. I’m not sure how that’s going to translate exactly to the preseason forecasts but I think ESPN could have us favored in every game at home with the exception of Georgia, and favored at least in our road game at Kentucky. I’m not sure how their forecast of our match-up at Missouri will shake out but it could tilt in our favor. South Carolina should be close but it's a home game for us and that may give us the edge, at least with the preseason forecasts.

Here are Connelly’s returning production numbers for this year. (Note: Connelly says from a purely statistical viewpoint, returning QB, returning receivers, and returning defensive backs have the highest correlation in determining predictive outcomes for forecasting. In that bunch I think our only real loss was Micah Abernathy.)

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I love it when you fire up the old spreadsheet.
 
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#113,706
#113,706
SugarCC said:
I thought dawg nation's version of Catbone...was Catbone.
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1467116289-surprised.gif
 
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#113,707
#113,707
ChattaTNVol said:
Preseason forecasting will soon be in full swing. For example, I expect ESPN to release their preseason FPI within the next week or so. There are a number of analytical data points that most of these outfits use to generate their preseason forecasts so it’s not just a gut check. Among the data points are head coaching tenure, returning production, recruiting rankings, etc. Everybody does it a little different. For example ESPN considers a returning QB to be worth 3.3 points added to the total of a team’s preseason FPI score.

Last year when I noted that Florida was attracting a lot of preseason love likely due to the huge amount of returning production they had, folks looked at the absolute value of Florida’s 2017 returning production and scoffed at the idea they could be all that much improved. This year the shoe is on the other foot, or rather it’s on our feet.

According to Bill Connelly at Football Study Hall, Tennessee has the 2nd most returning production of any FBS team. I’m not sure how that’s going to translate exactly to the preseason forecasts but I think ESPN could have us favored in every game at home with the exception of Georgia, and favored at least in our road game at Kentucky. I’m not sure how their forecast of our match-up at Missouri will shake out but it could tilt in our favor. South Carolina should be close but it's a home game for us and that may give us the edge, at least with the preseason forecasts.

Here are Connelly’s returning production numbers for this year. (Note: Connelly says from a purely statistical viewpoint, returning QB, returning receivers, and returning defensive backs have the highest correlation in determining predictive outcomes for forecasting. In that bunch I think our only real loss was Micah Abernathy.)

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I don't think theres any reason we cant win 8 next year. Chips fall just right we could win 9.
 
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#113,710
#113,710
mrorange211 said:
I really think 10 is gonna happen with a bowl win. 2019 is gonna be the year that we start scaring opponents again at the very least.
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I think 10 would be stretching it, but with as much as we have returning on offense, I think we're gonna see a huge difference on that side of the ball. Another year in the weight room, plus getting guys healthy, plus upgrading the OC position, we are gonna get better on that side of the ball. Biggest question mark for me is gonna be DL. We lose all starters but bring in some JUCO guys. Hopefully, they can contribute early and Solomon gets qualified. I think we'll be fine at LB and secondary will probably be the strength of the defense.

Edit, you may have actually meant 9 regular season wins with a bowl, making it 10.
 
#113,711
#113,711
VOLuptuousBOOMS said:
Tee Martin now talking receivers. Pruitt played coy at the presser but again seems very clear how staff is going to shake out. Martin was very familiar with Ramel Keyton when he was at USC. Said he didn't know Jerrod Means but calls him "a freak of nature" and "someone we're very excited about."
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Who on earth is Jerrod Means? Is he that Early Signee with virtually no offers we signed out of nowhere?
 
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#113,712
#113,712
volfaninpa said:
I don't know what you are talking about. I golf 6 days a week! ;) (I've actually never played a round of golf in my life) Remember Galatians 6:9
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Gawd, that sounds great. It's how I hope to spend my retirement....if I get to retire. Hope my kids can affor it!
 
#113,720
#113,720
mrorange211 said:
I really think 10 is gonna happen with a bowl win. 2019 is gonna be the year that we start scaring opponents again at the very least.
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Every single year people get all hyped and come up with totally unrealistic projections for the enxt season, go ahead set yourself up for disappointment then you'll be calling for Pruitt's head because his team under performed....
 
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#113,723
#113,723
JohnD13 said:
Every single year people get all hyped and come up with totally unrealistic projections for the enxt season, go ahead set yourself up for disappointment then you'll be calling for Pruitt's head because his team under performed....
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Gimme a winning season and bowl game.
 
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#113,725
#113,725
BigOrangeFanatic said:
I don't think theres any reason we cant win 8 next year. Chips fall just right we could win 9.
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There’s really no excuse to lose to Vandy, USCjr, or BYU at home. You could reasonably add Mississippi State to that list given everything they’re losing on defense and Fitzgerald being done. I won’t accept losing to Kentucky either given how bad we beat them this year and they’re losing Snell and Josh Allen. If you lose one of those you need to beat Florida or Mizzou on the road. Hopefully Mizzou’s seniors leave for other programs because of the bowl ban. If we don’t get to 8, I’ll be concerned.
 
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