Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#113,685
#113,685
jackcrevol said:
we've got a ways to go.

need a quick release QB....and stretch the field WR. But the pieces are there moreso than last year. And, we have an OC.
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I think we’ll see a lot of improvement on the offensive line. Imo if they give JG time he can make the throws. Plus if we do struggle on the ol again I believe Chaney will at least try to roll the pocket more.
 
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#113,688
#113,688
Preseason forecasting will soon be in full swing. For example, I expect ESPN to release their preseason FPI within the next week or so. There are a number of analytical data points that most of these outfits use to generate their preseason forecasts so it’s not just a gut check. Among the data points are head coaching tenure, returning production, recruiting rankings, etc. Everybody does it a little different. For example ESPN considers a returning QB to be worth 3.3 points added to the total of a team’s preseason FPI score.

Last year when I noted that Florida was attracting a lot of preseason love likely due to the huge amount of returning production they had, folks looked at the absolute value of Florida’s 2017 returning production and scoffed at the idea they could be all that much improved. This year the shoe is on the other foot, or rather it’s on our feet.

According to Bill Connelly at Football Study Hall, Tennessee has the 2nd most returning production of any FBS team. I’m not sure how that’s going to translate exactly to the preseason forecasts but I think ESPN could have us favored in every game at home with the exception of Georgia, and favored at least in our road game at Kentucky. I’m not sure how their forecast of our match-up at Missouri will shake out but it could tilt in our favor. South Carolina should be close but it's a home game for us and that may give us the edge, at least with the preseason forecasts.

Here are Connelly’s returning production numbers for this year. (Note: Connelly says from a purely statistical viewpoint, returning QB, returning receivers, and returning defensive backs have the highest correlation in determining predictive outcomes for forecasting. In that bunch I think our only real loss was Micah Abernathy.)

ScreenHunter 03.png
 
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#113,692
#113,692
If you haven't read the latest post by Voiceofmtjuliet in the Bryan Aiken thread, do yourself a favor and go read. Claiming super insider knowledge (coach or teammate?) and saying this kid is better than his teammate Reggie Grimes. OD 2.0?
 
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#113,696
#113,696
I’m sure this has been discussed but anyone have an updated numbers situation, with regard to how many more we could take (harris/green?) and how it’ll affect next year?
 
#113,697
#113,697
ChattaTNVol said:
Preseason forecasting will soon be in full swing. For example, I expect ESPN to release their preseason FPI within the next week or so. There are a number of analytical data points that most of these outfits use to generate their preseason forecasts so it’s not just a gut check. Among the data points are head coaching tenure, returning production, recruiting rankings, etc. Everybody does it a little different. For example ESPN considers a returning QB to be worth 3.3 points added to the total of a team’s preseason FPI score.

Last year when I noted that Florida was attracting a lot of preseason love likely due to the huge amount of returning production they had, folks looked at the absolute value of Florida’s 2017 returning production and scoffed at the idea they could be all that much improved. This year the shoe is on the other foot, or rather it’s on our feet.

According to Bill Connelly at Football Study Hall, Tennessee has the 2nd most returning production of any FBS team. I’m not sure how that’s going to translate exactly to the preseason forecasts but I think ESPN could have us favored in every game at home with the exception of Georgia, and favored at least in our road game at Kentucky. I’m not sure how their forecast of our match-up at Missouri will shake out but it could tilt in our favor. South Carolina should be close but it's a home game for us and that may give us the edge, at least with the preseason forecasts.

Here are Connelly’s returning production numbers for this year. (Note: Connelly says from a purely statistical viewpoint, returning QB, returning receivers, and returning defensive backs have the highest correlation in determining predictive outcomes for forecasting. In that bunch I think our only real loss was Micah Abernathy.)

View attachment 193275
Click to expand...
I would not say Abernathy was a loss.
 
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#113,698
#113,698
Here's a snapshot of class rankings by P5 conferences. Louisville is the lowest P5 school coming in at #73. I included the "other" teams which came in ahead of Louisville. There's an average at the bottom of the conference lists based on the number of teams in that grouping. We have 8 teams in our conference that are at or below our average for class ranking (i.e., ranked higher). There's only 11 other such teams in all the rest of college football combined. No wonder the rest of the P5 conferences want us to play a 9 game conference schedule.

ScreenHunter 04.png
 
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