That's what I have been saying. A 3-4 point swing in D the right direction and an O producing even the same average PPG, but more consistently delivered in each game adds 2-3 games to the W column IMO.
The ultimate key to our success –
With Heupel we’re always going to be an offensive focused team. We will live and die by our offense. jmo.
The defense gave the offense 3 extra possessions against Purdue via interceptions and it wasn’t enough. Additionally, one might say the defense provided the margin of victory against Kentucky via Taylor’s pick-six. I don’t expect a lot out of our 3-star defense, especially against elite teams. jmo.
When Heupel was first hired to be our coach I researched all his games at Missouri and UCF, focusing mostly on UCF because there he was the main man. My conclusion which I posted at the time was that if an opponent could stop his run game they would almost always win. More and more I hear commentators and writers pointing out that while a lot of people think Heupel’s offense slings the ball all over the field that is a misconception. It is and always has been a run-first offense. That's not my opinion. That's what Josh says.
In the wall of data I posted a day or so ago I showed where against our unranked opponents last year we mostly relied on our running game but against our ranked opponents we were forced to favor the passing game because we struggled to run the football. This also has an adverse effect on our defense which some people may not appreciate. jmo.
I looked at total offense and total defense and TEMPO for all FBS teams. None of the fastest teams look good from a defensive total yards standpoint. We are not unique. Can we do better on defense? Oh yeah, I think we can but ultimately we’re going to have to do something no one else is doing. Penn State last year had the best defense of the upper ranked tempo teams. Their defense was ranked #39. Their offense was ranked #82 and their tempo was 13th fastest. They were 17.83% slower than we were.
Oklahoma State had the 4th best defense in terms of total yards last year. Their offense was ranked #56 and their tempo was 22nd fastest. They were 21.12% behind us in speed. Georgia had the 2nd best defense last year behind Wisconsin. Georgia’s offense was ranked #25 and their tempo was ranked #112, 44.04% behind us. Wisconsin’s offense was ranked #88 and their tempo was ranked #125, 50.24% behind us.
I don’t think Heupel has been in a position yet where he could solve the big question against elite teams. How do you maintain a high octane offense with prolific scoring against elite defensive fronts? I mean we can pass with the best of them but that’s not the way we win with our offense. We have to run the football. Our passing game by itself doesn’t light up the scoreboard against elite teams, or at least it hasn’t so far. We had tremendous success passing against Georgia last year but we were only able to score 17 points, which was better than anyone else not named Alabama did..
Alabama was 7th in total offense and 7th in total defense last year. They were 53rd in Tempo, 27.93% behind us. They have a 5-star offense and a 5-star defense and much better depth on both sides of the ball than we do. jmo.
Last year we struggled to have healthy running backs available and to some extent healthy offensive linemen available. That didn’t hurt so much against bottom tier defenses but it killed us against elite defenses. One of the earliest things people noticed about Heupel’s offense last year is it schemed open our receivers with almost ease. In the beginning it was finding a QB who could take advantage of that. When Milton got hurt against Pitt we found our QB by default. Enter the backup QB. It was our turn. jmo.
Our defense with its talent and depth deficiencies may still struggle against elite offenses but in order to compete as a team we’re going to have to figure out how to keep elite defenses from shutting down our offense, specifically our run game. jmo.
From everything I’ve heard and I’ve listened to all the coaches and players this spring that have met with the media, we know what we need to do. We have health issues with Small. We aren’t fully set on the offensive line yet and we need more depth both in the RB room and capable depth in the OL room. The other element is getting our QB more involved in the run game. That's what they're saying and I understand where they're coming from and why.
I do think our defense will improve but there may be a lot lower ceiling than I think many people may realize. Nobody who ran a high tempo offense last year fared well on the defensive side of the ball. Can it be done? I think Heupel thinks so. I don’t know. I think as a minimum we need better talent and more depth. jmo.
Enter James Pearce, my top candidate right now for us on the all-SEC freshman team. On3 had him rated as a 5-star prospect.
James Pearce Scouting Summary
Charles Power
Summary
Twitched-up EDGE prospect who has an argument as the most gifted pass rusher in the 2022 cycle. Pairs a long, lean build with top notch first-step quickness. Screams off the edge both as a standing rusher and from a three-point stance. Shows curvilinear movement with his ability to bend around the edge. Has elite closing speed and is a high-level finisher in the backfield. Physical and embraces contact. Has a strong anchor relative to his current size (6-foot-5, 220 pounds) and converts speed to power as a pass rusher. Highly, highly disruptive in multiple ways. Disrupts passing lanes on a regular basis in addition to forcing fumbles, coming down with interceptions and scoring several defensive touchdowns. Plays with an outstanding effort level on a play-to-play basis. Tracks down plays in backside pursuit. Runs like a wide receiver, which should not be a surprise as he began his career as an offensive skill player. Has put together a phenomenal final two seasons at North Carolina's top high school program, totaling over 30 sacks as a junior and senior.
James Pearce dominates in semifinal win
Charles Power
Game
James Pearce had an utterly dominant performance in Chambers' comeback win over Hough High School in the state semifinals. Pearce was constantly disruptive rushing off the edge. We saw Pearce bat down multiple passes in addition to three sacks and several more hurries. Pearce took over the game late in the fourth quarter. With the game tied at 21 with under two minutes remaining, Pearce broke through the line to bat down a pass North Carolina 2023 quarterback commit Tad Hudson on a critical 3rd and 4. Chambers would get the ball and take the lead. A few minutes later, Pearce sealed the win. He screamed off the edge, swatted the ball out of Hudson's hand, scooped it up and ran in for a game-sealing score. The performances was likely the best single-game showing I've seen from a defensive prospect during the 2021 season.