Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

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#30,101
#30,101
SweetasSoda said:
Jacket said he is enjoying himself living the good life...paraphrased.

Some have said he was asked to not continue sharing information on here.
Click to expand...

Asked by who? Certainly not Freak. I mean, AV didn't stir up half the crap that DE1 does. If anyone asked, it had to be from the university side.
 
#30,103
#30,103
ChattaTNVol said:
On Big Orange Hotline Bob, Pat, and Jeff are all excited about our offensive stats. They all agree it would be nice if we could have that Pittsburgh game back. Pat says we don’t need to get carried away because we have a tough 4 game stretch coming up. Jeff says he don’t care; he’s going to get carried away. Pat asks how long has it been since we had an slew of offensive numbers we could talk about.

Jeff points out that the last guy we had said we didn’t have the players. They give props to Heupel for playing with the guys he’s got. Pat said he and Bob meet with staff 2 days before the game and last week they knew that there were a ton of players going to be out for the South Carolina game, good players. Bob said he asked Tim Banks what he was going to do with Theo out and Tim said they were going with Brandon. Bob wanted to know if the kid could handle it. Tim said he would be fine, like no big deal. (14 tackles, SEC defensive player of the week).

Pat said he thought in the beginning that Heupel would figure out how to score some points even under the adverse circumstances he inherited but he didn’t expect this. This is over the top.

They hyped up our secondary because of their aggressive play. They point out we lead the SEC in TFLs and 22 guys on the team have a TFL. Pat says we had this “awesome” defensive guru from Alabama come in here and was supposed to build this top notch defense. It didn’t happen. (Pat and Jeff are dissing Pruitt every chance they get).

Alontae Taylor was on for an interview with Bob. Alontae said Theo was coaching Brandon up in the week’s lead up to the game and was on the sideline coaching him throughout the game.

They have the “voice of the rebels” on to preview the game. They rehash the Ole Miss – Arkansas game and the guy bemoans the setback of their defense against the razorbacks. They have depth issues on that side of the ball, the guys says. The guy gushes over their QB and claims he’s matured a lot this year. (Anyone who saw the game or looked at the film will see that Arkansas missed a lot of tackles and let a number of guys run wide open in the backend over the course of the game. Ole Miss took advantage of that. I think Ole Miss bounced back from their loss to Alabama better than Arkansas did after their loss to Georgia).

They replay Brandon’s locker room interview after the game last week and the guys say Brandon is a great story for the rest of the guys to be ready for your opportunity.

The guys wrap up by saying the obvious, we need to slow down the Ole Miss offense this Saturday. They lead the nation with 24 4th down attempts. They’ve made it 18 times (75%). They’ve only played 5 games. In the conference they are dead last in punts/game at 2.4.

Over the last 3 weeks, since deploying my new simplified model for Freak’s weekly picks contest, it’s performed at a rate of 73.3%.

View attachment 401979
Click to expand...
Does your model have a “% chance to cover/win” feature? Bc if so, I’d love to get your highest % picks and drop some 💰 ! 😁
 
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#30,109
#30,109
Smokeytom said:
Does your model have a “% chance to cover/win” feature? Bc if so, I’d love to get your highest % picks and drop some 💰 ! 😁
Click to expand...

In Freak’s contest all we have to do is pick the winner of the game. We don’t have to be concerned about the score or the spread. I was spending a lot of time studying up on each game and wasn’t having the sort of luck I was looking for so I decided to take a more simplified approach. There’s a lot of factors that go into the outcome of a game and since the games Freak selects for the contest are mostly just 50/50 games (in everybody’s book) there’s no way I don’t think to get a consistent edge.

The model I chose to use requires a lot less time and I had previously discovered that factoring in strength of schedule the net difference between a team’s offensive scoring and defensive scoring aligned pretty well with a team’s record at the end of the year. The bigger the net the better the record in most cases. So I decided to go with that and then I didn’t have to worry about being right or wrong. I could give the credit and blame to my model.

I still do a lot of research on every game because, well, that’s what I do. I’m retired. For example one metric I like is net yards per play and Brian Fremeau provides that data by filtering out FCS games and garbage time plays. We are generating (offense – defense) 1.33 net yards per play and Ole Miss is generating 1.31 yards per play. Football Outsiders says after week 6 we have the 7th best offensive line in the country; Ole Miss has the 14th best. They say our DL ranks 47th overall and Ole Miss ranks 111. We have the best QB passer rating in the conference with Hendo Heisman and Ole Miss is close on his heels. Our pass defense is rated at 121.25 and Ole Miss is at 140.31. We’ve played 2 strong passing teams and they’ve played one, yet our pass defense is performing better.

Someone asked a day or 2 ago if this was Banks first job as a standalone DC. It’s not. I wrote an article on this back on April 5th. He was the DC at CMU, Cincinnati, and Illinois before he went to Penn State. His bio on UTsports and his wiki page has a lot of additional information. He was the DC when Butch brought the Bearcats to Neyland in 2011 to face Bray, Hunter, and Rogers. His title at the time was co-DC but he said in answer to a reporter’s question that he was the play caller. In any event, he has a lot of experience for his current role.

Lastly, since I’m sharing information. Last week I pointed out that the purported strength of the vaunted South Carolina defense was its pass defense, which at the time was ranked 12th best in the nation. Its run defense was ranked 68th best. That’s based on yards per game for both which doesn’t always tell the whole story. We ran for 247 yards on them so now their run defense in down to 81st best in the country. Their pass defense is still 12th best but Hendo’s passer rating for the game was 199.13. If we hadn’t taken a break for much of the second half we could have probably continued to score at will. jmo.

Ole Miss has a run defense ranked #108 based on rushing yards surrendered per game, 86th based on yards surrendered per attempt. We are at #30 in yards given up per game and #27 in yards given up per attempt. South Carolina had faced Kentucky and Georgia before us so they had a lot of faith in their defense. That bubble went burst in the first quarter. You hate to see it. I think on paper it's fair to conclude we should be better able to slow their run game than they against us. jmo.

Massey says his power ratings are the most significant output of his celebrated model (originated in 1995) and he has us as 15th best team in the country and Ole Miss as 18th best. We’re at home and I think we come into the game with a number of advantages as identified above. The only question I have is whether or not we’ll again score 28 points in the first quarter. I wouldn’t bet against it. jmo.
 
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#30,110
#30,110
ChattaTNVol said:
In Freak’s contest all we have to do is pick the winner of the game. We don’t have to be concerned about the score or the spread. I was spending a lot of time studying up on each game and wasn’t having the sort of luck I was looking for so I decided to take a more simplified approach. There’s a lot of factors that go into the outcome of a game and since the games Freak selects for the contest are mostly just 50/50 games (in everybody’s book) there’s no way I don’t think to get a consistent edge.

The model I chose to use requires a lot less time and I had previously discovered that factoring in strength of schedule the net difference between a team’s offensive scoring and defensive scoring aligned pretty well with a team’s record at the end of the year. The bigger the net the better the record in most cases. So I decided to go with that and then I didn’t have to worry about being right or wrong. I could give the credit and blame to my model.

I still do a lot of research on every game because, well, that’s what I do. I’m retired. For example one metric I like is net yards per play and Brian Fremeau provides that data by filtering out FCS games and garbage time plays. We are generating (offense – defense) 1.33 net yards per play and Ole Miss is generating 1.31 yards per play. Football Outsiders says after week 6 we have the 7th best offensive line in the country; Ole Miss has the 14th best. They say our DL ranks 47th overall and Ole Miss ranks 111. We have the best QB passer rating in the conference with Hendo Heisman and Ole Miss is close on his heels. Our pass defense is rated at 121.25 and Ole Miss is at 140.31. We’ve played 2 strong passing teams and they’ve played one, yet our pass defense is performing better.

Someone asked a day or 2 ago if this was Banks first job as a standalone DC. It’s not. I wrote an article on this back on April 5th. He was the DC at CMU, Cincinnati, and Illinois before he went to Penn State. His bio on UTsports and his wiki page has a lot of additional information. He was the DC when Butch brought the Bearcats to Neyland in 2011 to face Bray, Hunter, and Rogers. His title at the time was co-DC but he said in answer to a reporter’s question that he was the play caller. In any event, he has a lot of experience for his current role.

Lastly, since I’m sharing information. Last week I pointed out that the purported strength of the vaunted South Carolina defense was its pass defense, which at the time was ranked 12th best in the nation. Its run defense was ranked 68th best. That’s based on yards per game for both which doesn’t always tell the whole story. We ran for 247 yards on them so now their run defense in down to 81st best in the country. Their pass defense is still 12th best but Hendo’s passer rating for the game was 199.13. If we hadn’t taken a break for much of the second half we could have probably continued to score at will. jmo.

Ole Miss has a run defense ranked #108 based on rushing yards surrendered per game, 86th based on yards surrendered per attempt. We are at #30 in yards given up per game and #27 in yards given up per attempt. South Carolina had faced Kentucky and Georgia before us so they had a lot of faith in their defense. That bubble went burst in the first quarter. You hate to see it. I think on paper it's fair to conclude we should be better able to slow their run game than they against us. jmo.

Massey says his power ratings are the most significant output of his celebrated model (originated in 1995) and he has us as 15th best team in the country and Ole Miss as 18th best. We’re at home and I think we come into the game with a number of advantages as identified above. The only question I have is whether or not we’ll again score 28 points in the first quarter. I wouldn’t bet against it. jmo.
Click to expand...

okay guys I’m gonna try and read all this so don’t panic if I don’t post during the next 8 hours or so.
 
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#30,114
#30,114
I was looking at the weather rain in the morning is going to make for a wet and sloppy field. Only 8% chance at night but 70% humidity. Could play into the Vols advantage if they can keep Ole Miss off the field.
 
#30,115
#30,115
ChattaTNVol said:
In Freak’s contest all we have to do is pick the winner of the game. We don’t have to be concerned about the score or the spread. I was spending a lot of time studying up on each game and wasn’t having the sort of luck I was looking for so I decided to take a more simplified approach. There’s a lot of factors that go into the outcome of a game and since the games Freak selects for the contest are mostly just 50/50 games (in everybody’s book) there’s no way I don’t think to get a consistent edge.

The model I chose to use requires a lot less time and I had previously discovered that factoring in strength of schedule the net difference between a team’s offensive scoring and defensive scoring aligned pretty well with a team’s record at the end of the year. The bigger the net the better the record in most cases. So I decided to go with that and then I didn’t have to worry about being right or wrong. I could give the credit and blame to my model.

I still do a lot of research on every game because, well, that’s what I do. I’m retired. For example one metric I like is net yards per play and Brian Fremeau provides that data by filtering out FCS games and garbage time plays. We are generating (offense – defense) 1.33 net yards per play and Ole Miss is generating 1.31 yards per play. Football Outsiders says after week 6 we have the 7th best offensive line in the country; Ole Miss has the 14th best. They say our DL ranks 47th overall and Ole Miss ranks 111. We have the best QB passer rating in the conference with Hendo Heisman and Ole Miss is close on his heels. Our pass defense is rated at 121.25 and Ole Miss is at 140.31. We’ve played 2 strong passing teams and they’ve played one, yet our pass defense is performing better.

Someone asked a day or 2 ago if this was Banks first job as a standalone DC. It’s not. I wrote an article on this back on April 5th. He was the DC at CMU, Cincinnati, and Illinois before he went to Penn State. His bio on UTsports and his wiki page has a lot of additional information. He was the DC when Butch brought the Bearcats to Neyland in 2011 to face Bray, Hunter, and Rogers. His title at the time was co-DC but he said in answer to a reporter’s question that he was the play caller. In any event, he has a lot of experience for his current role.

Lastly, since I’m sharing information. Last week I pointed out that the purported strength of the vaunted South Carolina defense was its pass defense, which at the time was ranked 12th best in the nation. Its run defense was ranked 68th best. That’s based on yards per game for both which doesn’t always tell the whole story. We ran for 247 yards on them so now their run defense in down to 81st best in the country. Their pass defense is still 12th best but Hendo’s passer rating for the game was 199.13. If we hadn’t taken a break for much of the second half we could have probably continued to score at will. jmo.

Ole Miss has a run defense ranked #108 based on rushing yards surrendered per game, 86th based on yards surrendered per attempt. We are at #30 in yards given up per game and #27 in yards given up per attempt. South Carolina had faced Kentucky and Georgia before us so they had a lot of faith in their defense. That bubble went burst in the first quarter. You hate to see it. I think on paper it's fair to conclude we should be better able to slow their run game than they against us. jmo.

Massey says his power ratings are the most significant output of his celebrated model (originated in 1995) and he has us as 15th best team in the country and Ole Miss as 18th best. We’re at home and I think we come into the game with a number of advantages as identified above. The only question I have is whether or not we’ll again score 28 points in the first quarter. I wouldn’t bet against it. jmo.
Click to expand...
Awesome post sir. Love this type of stuff and curious how your model does throughout the year. The first few weeks I took it upon myself to research games I bet and tried to come up with the most simple statistics to get a good look. Safe to say I certainly haven’t perfected it but I love this type of stuff. Nice post!
 
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#30,117
#30,117
nicksjuzunk said:
Listen, horse boy… I’m putting in 13 hour days. I’ll get to it when I get to it and you’ll like it

View attachment 401991
Click to expand...
Lol!! Nick getting rank up in here!

Listen muscle boy, our performance Saturday night depends on when you get the game thread posted! Our best performances have come when you get it up on Tuesday. Florida game you posted it on Thursday I think. Last week, you posted it on Wednesday and look how horrible we looked in the 2nd half. That was your fault. You almost caused the fighting Beamers to comeback and win! They were 1 play away!

Therefore, you WILL get that thread posted TODAY no matter what, and you will like it! GIVE YOUR ALL FOR TENNESSEE TODAY!
 
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#30,120
#30,120
ChattaTNVol said:
In Freak’s contest all we have to do is pick the winner of the game. We don’t have to be concerned about the score or the spread. I was spending a lot of time studying up on each game and wasn’t having the sort of luck I was looking for so I decided to take a more simplified approach. There’s a lot of factors that go into the outcome of a game and since the games Freak selects for the contest are mostly just 50/50 games (in everybody’s book) there’s no way I don’t think to get a consistent edge.

The model I chose to use requires a lot less time and I had previously discovered that factoring in strength of schedule the net difference between a team’s offensive scoring and defensive scoring aligned pretty well with a team’s record at the end of the year. The bigger the net the better the record in most cases. So I decided to go with that and then I didn’t have to worry about being right or wrong. I could give the credit and blame to my model.

I still do a lot of research on every game because, well, that’s what I do. I’m retired. For example one metric I like is net yards per play and Brian Fremeau provides that data by filtering out FCS games and garbage time plays. We are generating (offense – defense) 1.33 net yards per play and Ole Miss is generating 1.31 yards per play. Football Outsiders says after week 6 we have the 7th best offensive line in the country; Ole Miss has the 14th best. They say our DL ranks 47th overall and Ole Miss ranks 111. We have the best QB passer rating in the conference with Hendo Heisman and Ole Miss is close on his heels. Our pass defense is rated at 121.25 and Ole Miss is at 140.31. We’ve played 2 strong passing teams and they’ve played one, yet our pass defense is performing better.

Someone asked a day or 2 ago if this was Banks first job as a standalone DC. It’s not. I wrote an article on this back on April 5th. He was the DC at CMU, Cincinnati, and Illinois before he went to Penn State. His bio on UTsports and his wiki page has a lot of additional information. He was the DC when Butch brought the Bearcats to Neyland in 2011 to face Bray, Hunter, and Rogers. His title at the time was co-DC but he said in answer to a reporter’s question that he was the play caller. In any event, he has a lot of experience for his current role.

Lastly, since I’m sharing information. Last week I pointed out that the purported strength of the vaunted South Carolina defense was its pass defense, which at the time was ranked 12th best in the nation. Its run defense was ranked 68th best. That’s based on yards per game for both which doesn’t always tell the whole story. We ran for 247 yards on them so now their run defense in down to 81st best in the country. Their pass defense is still 12th best but Hendo’s passer rating for the game was 199.13. If we hadn’t taken a break for much of the second half we could have probably continued to score at will. jmo.

Ole Miss has a run defense ranked #108 based on rushing yards surrendered per game, 86th based on yards surrendered per attempt. We are at #30 in yards given up per game and #27 in yards given up per attempt. South Carolina had faced Kentucky and Georgia before us so they had a lot of faith in their defense. That bubble went burst in the first quarter. You hate to see it. I think on paper it's fair to conclude we should be better able to slow their run game than they against us. jmo.

Massey says his power ratings are the most significant output of his celebrated model (originated in 1995) and he has us as 15th best team in the country and Ole Miss as 18th best. We’re at home and I think we come into the game with a number of advantages as identified above. The only question I have is whether or not we’ll again score 28 points in the first quarter. I wouldn’t bet against it. jmo.
Click to expand...
Where are you seeing Massey having us at #15? If I am reading this right (and I may not be) he has us at #32.
College Football Ranking Composite
 
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#30,122
#30,122
Christian Lowe said:
89k announced, 80k actual

It was quiet for the most part. It was loud in the first quarter, but people started leaving after we went up 28-0 and the 60k that were left kinda just watched us milk the clock
Click to expand...
You’re seeing what you want to see. It didn’t drop by 25% as you say after we went up 28-0. It was 4th quarter before large number of fans had left.

And it was loud most of 1st half. Not as loud as it has been at times, but plenty loud.
 
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#30,123
#30,123
csprig9 said:
Dumbest ****ing thing ever
Happened 10 years ago lol
The world is going crazy
How is what Gruden did/said worst then what rap singers do/say
Literally bc he’s white lol
Click to expand...

I’m sorry if this post hurt people but damn man
We gotta quit looking in the past and bringing it up
Moving forward is much better then dwelling on the past
And if goodell and the other guys feelings are hurt then maybe they need to think about stepping down if they can’t say hey, he was wrong and admitted to being wrong we’re just gonna move forward
People like goodell keep this kinda stuff brewing instead of trying to bring us together
 
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#30,125
#30,125
OrangenSC said:
You’re seeing what you want to see. It didn’t drop by 25% as you say after we went up 28-0. It was 4th quarter before large number of fans had left.

And it was loud most of 1st half. Not as loud as it has been at times, but plenty loud.
Click to expand...
I will never understand people that leave before a game is over...so dumb.
 
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