I don’t see either Kiffin or UT making this move. But, here are some possible reasons why it would make sense to him:
1. Kiffin knows that there will be low expectations for the next few years. If he turns it around quickly, he’s a hero among fans and his star will shine brighter than ever with the national media. He can demand anything. If he doesn’t, he will still take home a massive check and avoid the grumbling due to poor performance.
2. He has navigated these waters before. He knows he can produce in this situation.
3. He is aware of the 2022 TN state class, and I suspect he is confident he can sell them on a return to prominence, early playing time and his NFL connections.
4. He knows UT administration and boosters will give him everything possible to right this ship. A hefty budget for coaches and staff. All the consultants he wants.
5. UT‘s facilities and support are superior.
6. UT plays in an easier division.
7. He could make more money. Not just a bump over his existing pay. Think of the potential for unique performance incentives (winning season in Yr. 1 = $300,000 bonus. Then another $100,000+ for every win above 7 - 5).
8. He has many of the VFLs on his side already. Always good to have them calling for you.
9. He gets to break in a new AD and staff who will be pressured to help him facilitate a return to success.
10. He knows that, despite the past, he still has strong support from many of the UT fans. They will turn out for games in response to the excitement he can generate (another opportunity to leverage a contractual bonus).
11. He has maintained ties to the biggest boosters at UT. They will be in his corner.
Just a few off the top off my head.