Reasons to think Coach Josh Heupel will move us forward

#76
#76
For those saying he did poorly against "better competition" is not true. Against power 5 teams he averaged 38 ppg with g5 talent. He scored 49 points once, 45 points twice, 34, 32, and then 23 in his last outing, which we all know last year was a cluster f*** anyway.

Against ranked teams, which he only faced a total of 4 times, he averaged 31.5 ppg. Again, 2 of those ranked teams came last year against #7 Cincinnati and #16 BYU.

He only won 1 against the 4 ranked teams, but he only lost by 3 to #7 Cincinnati, by 8 to LSU and of course the blowout to BYU by 26 which makes everything look worse.

So for those saying he got worse over time you have to factor in last year as a major cause for that drastic drop off and also playing more ranked teams each year. Keep in mind, he did this with g5 talent.

Id say overall, he gets more out of less and fairs pretty damn well against the better opponents when you factor in the circumstances and the brunt of his bad coming from a year where we had a pandemic and players opting out.
 
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#77
#77
vols 30 said:
It seems like some are salivating at CJH failing. Let's see some games first.

I personally think he will succeed, but I've lowered my expectations some. If you're expecting 90's results, then you are being unrealistic.
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That's where I'm at. I'm just not of the mindset that because he initially found success at UCF, that he's to replicate it at UT. He walked into a much better situation at UCF than he is here, and the AAC is nothing compared to the SEC.
 
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#78
#78
Bottom line is that it is impossible to predict how Heupel will do here. We just have to wait and see. I know people need talk fodder for the summer but we are really entering pure speculation country now. UCF was such a different environment that you can really draw no reliable inferences from his time there.
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#79
#79
sjt18 said:
I like what they've appeared to do in the portal in response to some losses he had no control over. I'm still waiting to see better results with new recruits but will wait until he's had more of a fair chance. The extended dead period coupled to the timing of his hiring really hurt. He does have some really good recruiters on staff.
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I am concerned about recruiting. That is a wait-and-see situation.
Like you I think his handling of the portal has been strong. I don't know who they were targeting or why they elected to not bring in others, but he brought in solid depth (at worst) and even likely starters or key contributors (at best). Portal might be his best indicator so far he has a great opportunity to do well at UT.
 
#80
#80
sjt18 said:
If you want to hang onto 2020 so you can be negative then I can't stop you. I don't think it is reasonable though. UCF is unlikely to ever be a program that can fill gaps with Freshmen. It is my understanding that UCF lost 10-12 guys from their 2 deep through opt outs. When a team like that loses 20-25% of the guys they depend on most... it has a big impact.

You have pointed to a coincidence, not necessarily a cause. If he'd been there for 5 years and offensive production had gone from 43 ppg to 35 ppg with a steeper drop off vs the better teams then you'd have a more solid proof. He wasn't. He had two extraordinarily consistent years at 40+ scoring and then the Covid year when lots of weird stuff happened.
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UT had what 25+ transfer out? It's going to have a big impact.

Those expecting big results this season aren't acknowledging that the portal loss for UT was huge in scale, in numbers, and likely in impact.
 
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#81
#81
sjt18 said:
He was fired. Yes. Did he leave a roster ready to challenge in the East? Did he even leave a roster that one of the top name coaches was ready to take a chance on? Yeah. I believe there's more talent than many here. But no one believes he set Heupel up "great".

There is a WIDE valley between making the playoffs and "losing". I'll be more specific. If he wins 4-7 games each season for the next 4 years then he will neither build the roster or survive. If he wins 6-9 games in each of the next 4 seasons then he won't be fired.

Not in a while.


And "realistically"... how do you KNOW that? The answer is... you do not.

UT needs to score points and look like a credible opponent against top tier teams. Even if it is just clamping down on the bottom half of the schedule... the D has to show something that can be sold to recruits. Recruiting is HUGE right now. Heupel has to be credible.

If his O performs then great players will stand in line to play in it. Defensive recruiting will take more creativity.
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I’m a gambling man baby!!
 
#84
#84
EricberryFAN said:
I have to respectfully disagree with this. I'm not saying he's going to be the guy but he was not hired to build a roster. Our roster isn't even that bad and like another posted said, if that was the case then we would of hired Tee Martin or even some big name like Deion Sanders to get recruits here. Minus our D-Line our roster is there to compete and win games if coached right IMO.
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Unfortunately.. and this where a lot of people miss it. Recruiting is only half of roster building. You have to develop.
 
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#85
#85
BeardedVol said:
That's where I'm at. I'm just not of the mindset that because he initially found success at UCF, that he's to replicate it at UT. He walked into a much better situation at UCF than he is here, and the AAC is nothing compared to the SEC.
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After being an encouraging and enthusiastic supporter of our last 4 coaches as the ones before them needed to go I'm now in the reserve judgement mode. I support Heupel as he is our guy and has done nothing to this point which would cause me to withdraw my support. That said there's not much on his resume that makes me see how he'll put a competitive team on the field in the SEC. If recruting is the lifeblood of an SEC program, he's anemic so far. No booms for discarded 2 and 3 star players from me. I'll await and see the product he puts on the field over time before deciding if it's thumbs up or down.
 
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#86
#86
He's a competent head coach at a minimum and he's not an immature moron. I don't know if JH will build a championship program or not but I would bet the farm that he becomes an 8 win per yr HC and takes the 3rd spot in the east at a minimum in a couple of yrs as long as he doesn't get hit with crippling sanctions. I see his floor being a guy that builds UT up to respectability and gets the program back on firm footing.
 
#87
#87
Pacer92 said:
True, the NCAA punishment will affect the program, but with the transfer portal the way it is, I don’t think it’ll take nearly as long, jmo. Let’s hope not anyway...
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The NCAA will have minimal impact.
 
#91
#91
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
UT had what 25+ transfer out? It's going to have a big impact.

Those expecting big results this season aren't acknowledging that the portal loss for UT was huge in scale, in numbers, and likely in impact.
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Possibly. But they've already replaced some of those guys or attempted to.

Twenty-five seems high. I know there weren't that many guys from the 2 deep... and they have a lot longer to develop someone to step in.

Portal losses are now a reality for everyone. Other than the top teams, there is an impact for everyone. Texas will miss the LB UT took. Auburn will miss the CB UT took. Michigan will likely miss the two guys UT took from them if for nothing more than depth.

On the other side of your point... I think those expecting low results have vastly underestimated how bad Pruitt was and particularly his decisions that impacted the O starting with QB.
 
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#93
#93
Develop yes..... couldn't agree more but without recruiting you're dead in the water. Right now the jury is out on that aspect of his tenure.
 
#94
#94
sjt18 said:
Possibly. But they've already replaced some of those guys or attempted to.

Twenty-five seems high. I know there weren't that many guys from the 2 deep... and they have a lot longer to develop someone to step in.

Portal losses are now a reality for everyone. Other than the top teams, there is an impact for everyone. Texas will miss the LB UT took. Auburn will miss the CB UT took. Michigan will likely miss the two guys UT took from them if for nothing more than depth.

On the other side of your point... I think those expecting low results have vastly underestimated how bad Pruitt was and particularly his decisions that impacted the O starting with QB.
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As the portal losses go, ours were intense. Denying that while insisting the UCF opt outs were bad...... is silly. We got hurt, as did UCF. If you're going to use the COVID opt outs at UCF and ignore the UT portal losses....... you're not making sense.

Tennessee football: Transfer portal ranking shows how much Vols lost
 
#96
#96
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
UT had what 25+ transfer out? It's going to have a big impact.

Those expecting big results this season aren't acknowledging that the portal loss for UT was huge in scale, in numbers, and likely in impact.
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Buncha walk-ons and dead weight. You never really had them if they were so eager to bolt...would’ve been horrible here. Had that feeling about Wanya all season. Only feasible loss was Lawrence and it was acceptable. We’ll be better for them all being gone...and the record shall reflect.
 
#97
#97
BeardedVol said:
Counterpoints:

1. Outside of the QB position, his recruiting was "meh" at best at UC, with his teams decreasing in production the more Scott Frost's recruits exited the program.
2. His offense scores a lot of points, on bad and mediocre teams, and is relatively average against good teams with winning records.
3. He might be Butch, depending on whether or not he is capable of seeing the flaws in his system and adjusting it or not.
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Everyone seems to have the same taking points among his detractors.

The record did diminish last year. He had 10 players opt out, and lost 3 regular games by a total of 7 points. One of those was to a Cincinnati team that should’ve beaten Georgia.

Unlike most of our former coaches he didn’t make excuses. So far, he isn’t doing that here either.
 
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#99
#99
The whole staff seem like likable guys but can they win at this level? We shall soon see.
 
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