Reasons to think Coach Josh Heupel will move us forward

sjt18

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I think CJH will be a consistent 7-9 win coach, barring a 3-4 win season (which I think he's better than that) he's getting 4 and an extension for 7-8 wins by then. Then he'll get another 2-3 years just by winning 7-9 games before he's run.
I get what you are saying. I just don't see how it can work.

If he does not get wins with lesser talent this year then he won't recruit the players to improve. If he does get wins then there is every reason to expect him to win more with better players. So what you are saying is that he will win 7 or 8 right away (the only way he recruits the needed players) but then won't improve once he gets them.
 

hog88

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I get what you are saying. I just don't see how it can work.

If he does not get wins with lesser talent this year then he won't recruit the players to improve. If he does get wins then there is every reason to expect him to win more with better players. So what you are saying is that he will win 7 or 8 right away (the only way he recruits the needed players) but then won't improve once he gets them.
I think almost any decent coach can get 7 wins a season at UT with the occasional 9 win season and I think CJH is probably a decent coach.
 

sjt18

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I think almost any decent coach can get 7 wins a season at UT with the occasional 9 win season and I think CJH is probably a decent coach.
If he had players then yes. He inherits some talent but to leave it as good as he found it... he'll have to win more than you seem to think he can.

This isn't a water treading situation. The last several years indicate that it never was. A coach will either catch some breaks and have the talent to rise out of the quagmire... or they'll get fired for too many losing seasons.

PS- I think Heupel is potentially better than "decent". He's widely reputed as top end in intelligence as applied to football. He seems to be doing the right things leadership wise with this team.

We will see how well he hires and manages a staff.
 

hog88

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If he had players then yes. He inherits some talent but to leave it as good as he found it... he'll have to win more than you seem to think he can.

This isn't a water treading situation. The last several years indicate that it never was. A coach will either catch some breaks and have the talent to rise out of the quagmire... or they'll get fired for too many losing seasons.

PS- I think Heupel is potentially better than "decent". He's widely reputed as top end in intelligence as applied to football. He seems to be doing the right things leadership wise with this team.

We will see how well he hires and manages a staff.
UT has never had a problem getting 7 win talent, isn't hard to do. Decent coaching gets Ws against Vandy, UK, Mizzu and SCjr then schedule 3 OOC wins and there is your 7.
 
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BeardedVol

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I get what you are saying. I just don't see how it can work.

If he does not get wins with lesser talent this year then he won't recruit the players to improve. If he does get wins then there is every reason to expect him to win more with better players. So what you are saying is that he will win 7 or 8 right away (the only way he recruits the needed players) but then won't improve once he gets them.
I'm not saying that is what is going to happen, but why couldn't it work that way?

The reality is that if Pruitt's staff doesn't get busted cheating, he's still here till 2023 regardless of the poor showing in 2020.

Danny White has hired Heupel twice, he's not going to cut him loose any time soon, even if he peaks at 4-4/5-3 in conference record, and that's his best showing in the next 4 years, he'll most likely still get a 3-year extension.

The SEC network money flows regardless of our success or lack thereof.
 

norrislakevol

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I get what you are saying. I just don't see how it can work.

If he does not get wins with lesser talent this year then he won't recruit the players to improve. If he does get wins then there is every reason to expect him to win more with better players. So what you are saying is that he will win 7 or 8 right away (the only way he recruits the needed players) but then won't improve once he gets them.
And there's the thing. I think he can be a solid coach, BUT he has to get the Jimmie's and Joe's. If we do not finish at least in the top 20 this year in recruiting then with the transfers out of last years class that will be 2 bad recruiting years in a row. Sure, the transfer portal helps with this some, but you need talented classes to compete.
 
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sjt18

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I'm not saying that is what is going to happen, but why couldn't it work that way?

The reality is that if Pruitt's staff doesn't get busted cheating, he's still here till 2023 regardless of the poor showing in 2020.

Danny White has hired Heupel twice, he's not going to cut him loose any time soon, even if he peaks at 4-4/5-3 in conference record, and that's his best showing in the next 4 years, he'll most likely still get a 3-year extension.

The SEC network money flows regardless of our success or lack thereof.
The other poster's point was that he would be a good set up man for the next coach. If he's a mediocre coach as he contends then I don't see how he will have the success to lead to the recruiting that will set the next guy up. In fact, I think it could be a worse roster. This roster has some really good talent in spots. The Vols could surprise some people this fall if Heupel is better than some seem to believe.
 

sjt18

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UT has never had a problem getting 7 win talent, isn't hard to do. Decent coaching gets Ws against Vandy, UK, Mizzu and SCjr then schedule 3 OOC wins and there is your 7.
That's assuming a lot of things. One is that programs like UK aren't better than they were or programs like USCe won't get better. Getting a "7 win roster" isn't what it used to be.

The schedule also won't stay this "easy" (relative sense). UT gets OU again in '24. The Vols drop Ole Miss next year and pick up a road game to LSU then TAM in the year after that. Next year Army replaces BGSU. BGSU is one of the worst teams in CFB. Army has had two 10 win seasons over the last four years plus nine last year.

I just do not agree with the idea that Heupel can tread water and leave the next guy a roster even this good. However, if he's good enough to put 7 or 8 wins on the board this year then I believe the only question is whether he can use that to improve the roster. IMO, he will have demonstrated the potential to compete at a higher level.
 

hog88

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That's assuming a lot of things. One is that programs like UK aren't better than they were or programs like USCe won't get better. Getting a "7 win roster" isn't what it used to be.

The schedule also won't stay this "easy" (relative sense). UT gets OU again in '24. The Vols drop Ole Miss next year and pick up a road game to LSU then TAM in the year after that. Next year Army replaces BGSU. BGSU is one of the worst teams in CFB. Army has had two 10 win seasons over the last four years plus nine last year.

I just do not agree with the idea that Heupel can tread water and leave the next guy a roster even this good. However, if he's good enough to put 7 or 8 wins on the board this year then I believe the only question is whether he can use that to improve the roster. IMO, he will have demonstrated the potential to compete at a higher level.
Tread water? I don't think for a second CJH will be treading water, I think he'll be working feverishly to improve the team. I just don't think he has the capability of being better than a 7-9 win coach in the SEC.
 

sjt18

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Tread water? I don't think for a second CJH will be treading water, I think he'll be working feverishly to improve the team. I just don't think he has the capability of being better than a 7-9 win coach in the SEC.
I have no doubts he will work hard. I didn't mean he wouldn't try only that he will either sink or swim.

I guess what I'm picking on is the idea that he can be a good "set up guy".

But you seem to be missing my point. I believe that with the built in OOC wins a 7-9 win coach is "mediocre". A "mediocre" coach isn't likely to win 6-9 games in these first two seasons. If he doesn't win 8 or 9 games in the first 3 years then the talent won't come to make him a good set up guy for the next guy. Through no fault of his own this first class is already going to be difficult. He was hired late and then had the Covid restrictions. Opposing coaches have pushed for and gotten commits from guys who would have been targets and possible UT signees under other circumstances.

However if he DOES win 8 or 9 games and especially if he manages 10 then there is a very, very good chance that he's a much better coach than you think. A coach capable of competing in the top tier of the SEC... and helped by the recruiting credibility those wins give him.

IMHO, if he's no better than you think they he will win 5 to 7 games in the first 3 years. Barring some sort of miracle, he'll be fired after year 4 and will leave the next guy at best a mediocre roster. That guy regardless of who he is will then be on the clock to find a way to win enough games to bring in the talent to survive.

I actually think his potential is much better than you do. In fact, I think he will be successful somewhere. Maybe UT. Maybe somewhere else. The things said about him are that he's a good leader, a good man, likeable, "off the charts" intelligent, and hard working. From just what I've read, he has already evolved with the game from OU to Utah St to Mizzou to UCF. He's adapted and changed which is always a consideration when a guy is associated with a "scheme" or side of the ball. My personal concerns all revolve around the defense. Does his philosophy set D's up for failure? If not, can he consistently find DC's that compliment his offense in the right way?

Another thing we haven't discussed is that Heupel is recruiting to scheme. That doesn't bode well for him as a set up guy.
 

Envolronment

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I have now watched every game that Coach Huepel has ever coached (as a head coach) and I have come to the conclusion that his speed on offense is in large part do to a well-oiled machine. He can make fast in-game decisions because he has studied the game. And what's more, his team is on the same page. His only major in-game decision mistake was not kicking the field goal in the fourth quarter against Pitt which I believe cost him the game. But there is nothing that we have seen from Dooley, Jones or Pruitt that comes close to that kind of system. And now the SEC is being won by high powered offenses. See Alabama vs. Florida last year and LSU vs. Florida the year before that. High scoring shoot out games have been deciding the SEC. That is why I believe that under Heupel we will start to move in the right direction. Also, White has the reputation of being a good man with clear judgment. He trusts Huepel and that says a lot. We need Tennessee to return to having that kind of solid and high road reputation with the goods to back it up. I think Huepel is a man who can restore that.
 

nomads-11

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TN needs to learn how to achieve something, regardless of opponent. In this case CJH has probably the best chance if he's able to establish the belief that they can score on anyone. Such as putting up 30+ on the likes of Bama, Fla and GA. Doing that will likely draw the offensive recruits to sustain it. Beating some of those 3 would only reinforce it.

Like a lot of coaches, who specializes in one side of the ball, he's going to have to figure out the right formula (coaches and players) on defense. Finally, we'll find out how his GameDay coaching is come fall.

Here's hoping he can set up success offensively, build an initial identity. Go from there.
 
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Rooster1

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I think Heup will be successful here...may take a year or two...may not. How successful? I don’t think it’ll take too long to see if he’s capable or not of pushing us back into the same conversation with the big boys of the league. I believe with the departure of Pruitt and his program culture/pulse...we immediately got better. There was cancer growing out of control. Coaches didn’t look invested...players didn’t look invested. Add that to a outdated style of moving the football and a defense that was slow... thin on talent and quality depth....equals we suck!

Anytime an offense puts pressure on the defense to defend as much field and as many times a game as JH’s does....I just think we will be in a lot of games. Some wont go our way...some will. I think this staff will develop talent already there. Closing the recruiting talent gap won’t take long if both of these happen...and I believe it will. We shall see...
Nobody wins big in the SEC until they build up a deep and talented roster, and no coach can build up that kind of roster “ in a year or two”.
 

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