Reasons for Optimism in 2020

[volfannbama]

I think it highlights how much staff performance is predicated on having a competent head coach.

Yeah, me too

 

[Billy Ratliff]

Please elaborate on how Maurer playing would have stopped GSU's offense from scoring on our defense.

It just would’ve.

 

[BeardedVol]

It just would’ve.

 

[American_PitVol]

Brandon Johnson taking a red shirt this year, so that will help the WR depth. WR and LB need to be main areas we're looking at for JUCO's/Transfers. A RB would be nice as well.

I think Beasley grows in to a Linebacker. Dude is a head hunter.

 

[Illinoisvolfan2]

On the bright side, we don’t open with Georgia State.

 

[DCRockyTop]

The logic here is that while good offense wouldn't have stopped their running, it would have kept us in the lead and taken their ability to run/milk the clock away by needing to pass/conserve time. No doubt the coaches failed the team in preparation, but with mediocre QB play, a few drives are extended/finished with points and puts a very ugly game away in the W column.

 

[BeardedVol]

The logic here is that while good offense wouldn't have stopped their running, it would have kept us in the lead and taken their ability to run/milk the clock away by needing to pass/conserve time. No doubt the coaches failed the team in preparation, but with mediocre QB play, a few drives are extended/finished with points and puts a very ugly game away in the W column.

You could argue that better QB play would have caused us to not settle for field goals, or sustained drives, but the time of possession was even, the defense wasn't failing to stop them because they wee asked to play longer than necessary and ended up gassed. Even with better QB play, if we let them score 38 points with our poor defensive play, we might still have lost; scoring 38 points on your opponent is enough to win in most games.

 

[DaddyChad]

I think it highlights how much staff performance is predicated on having a competent head coach.

A lot of factors go in there, that’s definitely one though. Competent is interesting though, sure Saban could go anywhere and be successful, Dabo though probably would’ve been fired if he were in the SEC. Dabo was also familiar with the staff, program, etc when he was appointed interim. Pruitt came in late (his fault on that) and he’s a young head coach at a huge program. There’s going to be a learning curve.

Honestly I feel like a lot of the pessimists on here will be right in the end but I’m not ready to make a judgement yet on Pruitt. By year three if our on field performance isn’t much better it’s time to start looking but not yet.

 

[DCRockyTop]

You could argue that better QB play would have caused us to not settle for field goals, or sustained drives, but the time of possession was even, the defense wasn't failing to stop them because they wee asked to play longer than necessary and ended up gassed. Even with better QB play, if we let them score 38 points with our poor defensive play, we might still have lost; scoring 38 points on your opponent is enough to win in most games.

Not saying I disagree. Was just shedding more light on the "with better qb play..." take specific to that game. I think that game was just an all around sh!t sandwich from preparation to in-game coaching to player execution. With any one of those being stronger, we would have won in my opinion. Still would have been extremely ugly, but would have won.

 

[I40flyer]

How about going from 3-9 to 6-6. Thats a big jump that won't win the SEC.

Yes, indeed that would be Big Jump! How do you see the SEC games playing out? That would get us a bowl, now days, even a 5-7 team can get a bowl game. If you're right, in two years, I'd be looking for a NATY!!!

 

[ksgovols]

You had me at 2020! 10-2 with a shot at the SEC Championship game or we don't have hair on our balls!

 

[BeardedVol]

Yes, indeed that would be Big Jump! How do you see the SEC games playing out? That would get us a bowl, now days, even a 5-7 team can get a bowl game. If you're right, in two years, I'd be looking for a NATY!!!

Is going 6-6 in your third year, after going 5-7 in your first and 3-9 in your second really progress though? Or are we just lowing the bar for Pruitt because this second year is an utter disaster?

 

[mickeyvol]

I'm tired of this thread and all treads end up being this thread.

 

[Mtnvol80]

Winning matters but it’s trumped by getting players to the next level. If winning was the only thing that matter every five star would be at Clemson or Bama. Recently Tennessee hasn’t done well on either front but players believe in him. We signed Henry T over Bama last year, Wright over Georgia, and Morris over Auburn and Georgia.

I didn't say winning is the only thing that matters. If it did we'd never land a 5 star. We get a few while the others fill a roster with elite guys. That's the difference. Programs that win a lot also send the most to the NFL. A win win for a recruit. Look at the top 10 recruiting rankings. They're big brand colleges that win period. You can almost look at the top 5 and figure whose going to be in the playoffs

 

[Satan Manning]

My reason for optimism?......we are so far down the only place we can go is up.

That is what I thought last year. Boy was I wrong

 

[livefaith]

Translation:. Wait until Next Year.

It should be in our fight song.

 

[ABINGDON VOL FAN]

I’m gonna tell y’all right now. Tim Jordan is becoming a man between the lines. I expect a lot more of him this season into next if he can stay healthy. Possibly even separating himself from the rest. There is just something about the way he runs.

As long as someone can point him the hole the play is designed for he is awesome.

 

[MCNABB]

Battered Vol Syndrome is real and we already know that several posters are going to make snarky comments about the idea that we could possibly improve next year. Nevertheless, I’m going to make the overwhelming obvious case that our roster should be in better shape for 2020 than it is in 2019.

For the record, I was never optimistic about this season. Most of the optimism was coming from the inaccurate idea that good coaches always turn things around in Year 2. History has not shown this to be the case. Rather, it's very context-dependent.

Great coaches who have inherited very strong rosters have turned things around in Year 2; examples include Nick Saban at Alabama, Pete Carroll, Kirby Smart, and Bob Stoops. However, coaches that have inherited deeper rebuilds or more problematic rosters have often taken till Year 3, Year 4, or Year 5 to have consistent results. Examples include Dabo Swinney (Year 4 / Year 5) Frank Beamer (Year 7), Barry Alvarez (Year 4), Nick Saban at Michigan State (Year 5), Mike Leach at Wash State (Year 4), and Bill Snyder (Year 5).

I don't know if Jeremy Pruitt is a great head coach or not yet. I know he inherited a terrible situation on both lines. I know he's a great developer of talent. I know he's a great DC. We'll have to wait and see if he's a good head coach. However, I also know that, assuming we can land a good recruiting class, 2020 looks much better on paper. This isn't some far-fetched idea; I said this even before this season started.

Here are the reasons why:


1. The O-line can be elite

First off, let's not forget that we had the worst O-line in all P5 conferences in 2017 and 2018. The SEC is a line of scrimmage league. You cannot win without a strong LOS and some depth at the line positions. Butch Jones left us in horrible shape on both lines.

Pruitt went out and landed the best O-line class in the nation last year. But these guys are still true Freshmen in a league where true Freshmen rarely start on the line. O-line play has improved significantly in a few short months, but we're still seeing a lot of "Freshman mistakes". Yet, here's what our OL could look like next year:

Wanya Morris
Darnell Wright
Jahmir Johnson
Ryan Johnson
Jerome Carvin
Jackson Lampley
Chris Akporoghene
Marcus Tatus
K'Rojhn Calbert

If we're very lucky, we get Trey Smith back for another year, though I suspect he'll explore the draft. Add a few more recruits and I think this has the makings of an elite O-line. We're already seeing improved results this year. It takes awhile to rebuild an O-line, but I think 2020 is the year we start to see the results.


2. D-line depth will be much improved

D-line is a major weakness right now, as well. At the beginning of the season, I predicted that this would hold us back and that we’d be lucky to win 6 or 7 games. I never expected to lose to Georgia State, but nevertheless, the stats for our D-line were ugly even before the season.

Teams like Bama and Georgia run 14 or 15 deep at D-line. We run maybe 9 deep tops. And we lost our starting Nose Tackle (Emmit Gooden) before the season started. Anyone who thought we’d have an elite defense with our D-line problems was being delusional.

Unfortunately, unlike the O-line, I don’t think we have the makings of an elite D-line just yet. That said, D-line should nevertheless be much improved next season. For starters, while losing Gooden was a blow for this season, it means we have better depth next year.

Our roster includes:

Emmit Gooden
Aubrey Solomon
LaTrell Bumphus
Matthew Butler
Kurott Garland
Elijah Simmons

Simmons has been very impressive in practice, but he’s a true Freshman and I think the coaches want to redshirt him, but he should be in full action next year. Simmons will be one of the few players on the roster who will actually be a great fit at NT. We also add blue-chip recruits BJ Ojulari and Dominic Bailey. Hopefully, we can land a few other blue-chippers on the D-line, such as Jay Hardy and Tyler Baron. If we can do that, the future will look much brighter on the D-line as well.

Regardless, this is probably the worst D-line we’ll see in the Jeremy Pruitt era. It'll be better next year; not elite, but perhaps good.


3. More options at Quarterback

I admit that I didn’t expect JG to regress this badly this season. Even if JG plays like he did last year, we’re 3-2 right now. But it is what it is.

Even before the season, I was concerned about QB depth. Behind JG sat 2 Freshmen, neither of which looked ready to play just yet. But we’re playing a true Freshman now with Brian Maurer.

Personally, I think Maurer was the steal of the 2019 class (along with Quavaris Crouch). He had a monster Senior season in high school and played for a bad team; hence he was underrated as a 3-star. But you all saw his potential against Georgia. He’s still got a long way to go (as the 2nd half showed), but we’ll get better at QB.

Not only will Maurer be more experienced next year, we add transfer Kasim Hill, and blue-chip recruit Harrison Bailey. Moreover, JT Shrout will have some more experience as well. Overall, while I don’t necessarily expect us to be elite at QB in 2020, we’ll have much more in the way of options; and all of those options should be better than they are right now.


4. Elite Starting Linebackers

While we now have some depth issues at linebacker, we have some real studs in Henry To’o To’o and Quavaris Crouch. Both are true Freshmen. Both are going to be very very good. Add in another Freshman, Roman Harrison, who shows some huge potential, and we have the makings of some elite LBs. We just need more of them.


5. Elite DBs

Bryce Thompson is a shut-down corner. Alontae Taylor has struggled at times this season, but he’s still one of the best Sophomore DBs in the SEC. Warren Burrell is still a true Freshman and will only get better with time. We look in good shape at CB. We’ll have to see how things shake out at the Safety positions next season, but our top-rated recruit in the 2020 right now is Safety Keshawn Lawrence.


Reasons for Pessimism

Alright, I gave the reasons for optimism, but here are some things I am concerned about next season.

1. Lack of depth at LB

This wasn’t an issue “on the radar” before a few weeks ago, but with Will Ignont and Shannon Reid transferring, coupled with Jeremy Banks being dismissed, we now have serious depth issues at LB. We also lose Darrell Taylor and Daniel Bituli next season.

We do have several guys with the potential to be elite as LBs in Henry To’o To’o, Quavaris Crouch, and Roman Harrison, but we need many more to survive in the SEC. This is also, unfortunately, the area where it looks like our recruiting is suddenly struggling. Hopefully Pruitt and his staff figure things out and land a few more guys with potential to be elite here, but regardless, depth may be an issue in 2020.


2. Replacing Jennings and Callaway

We lose 2 NFL quality Wide Receivers in Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway. While we have some up-and-comers on the roster, this is going to be one of those scenarios where it’s almost impossible to replace these 2 guys immediately, so expect us to take a step backward at WR next year. That said, hopefully guys like Remel Keyton, Cedric Tillman, and Deangelo Gibbs can step up.


3. Help at Running Back?

We may or may not lose Ty Chandler to the draft. If we get him back next year, that’s a huge coup. If not, Eric Gray is going to have to be “the man”. Gray is very promising, but it would be nice to have some more depth behind him and Tim Jordan; can’t say I feel comfortable with where we are at RB in 2020 without either a top-notch recruit or Chandler returning.


Overall

While I expected us to sneak into a bowl game this year, I never expected us to be good. I'm disappointed by the losses to Ga State and BYU (and couldn't have seen the former happening), but I can also see we're getting better. We won't compete for the SEC title next year, but I suspect we'll take a big step forward.

As much as people hate the "youth" excuse, it's true. Butch Jones used that excuse even during his 4th and 5th seasons, which is why I think people are annoyed when they hear it now, but it's true in 2019 (it wasn't in 2016).

The real key here is whether Pruitt can continue adding big-time recruits to this team. If he does that, we'll be in much better shape in 2020 and 2021. And let's hope we can win a few down the stretch in 2019.

That is all. NegaVol away!


GBO!

Good read

 

[Eddie Vol Halen]

Is going 6-6 in your third year, after going 5-7 in your first and 3-9 in your second really progress though? Or are we just lowing the bar for Pruitt because this second year is an utter disaster?

It is hard to get through GA State as the first game in Year 2. I blew a stitch like everyone else. I'm trying to rationalize a scenario where Pruitt was willing to sacrifice that game in order push back the Jones culture. Jones quit on everyone at Tennessee in his final year, his grand plan to show that his MAC teams could win the SEC proved incorrect even with Dobbs, Barnett and Kamara (and proved ridiculous when they were gone). I'm starting to believe Pruitt inherited a mess worse than Dooley bequeathed. He used GA State to show the old regime was wrong in every way, shape and form and the staying in that regime will get you beat by GA State. That's what I keep telling myself but it's still Year 2 and I thought Year 1 was the housecleaning year.

Today's game (Ms State) could completely destroy Pruitt. Lose it and I think this Year 2 tells us exactly what we got. Win it and at least we can keep rationalizing a bit longer.

 

[orangebloodgmc]

Great thread, DG