Battered Vol Syndrome is real and we already know that several posters are going to make snarky comments about the idea that we could possibly improve next year. Nevertheless, I’m going to make the overwhelming obvious case that our roster should be in better shape for 2020 than it is in 2019.
Saw this thread last year,,,, and the year before,,,, next.
For the record, I was never optimistic about this season. Most of the optimism was coming from the inaccurate idea that good coaches always turn things around in Year 2. History has not shown this to be the case. Rather, it's very context-dependent.
Great coaches who have inherited very strong rosters have turned things around in Year 2; examples include Nick Saban at Alabama, Pete Carroll, Kirby Smart, and Bob Stoops. However, coaches that have inherited deeper rebuilds or more problematic rosters have often taken till Year 3, Year 4, or Year 5 to have consistent results. Examples include Dabo Swinney (Year 4 / Year 5) Frank Beamer (Year 7), Barry Alvarez (Year 4), Nick Saban at Michigan State (Year 5), Mike Leach at Wash State (Year 4), and Bill Snyder (Year 5).
I don't know if Jeremy Pruitt is a great head coach or not yet. I know he inherited a terrible situation on both lines. I know he's a great developer of talent. I know he's a great DC. We'll have to wait and see if he's a good head coach. However, I also know that, assuming we can land a good recruiting class, 2020 looks much better on paper. This isn't some far-fetched idea; I said this even before this season started.
Here are the reasons why:
1. The O-line can be elite
First off, let's not forget that we had the worst O-line in all P5 conferences in 2017 and 2018. The SEC is a line of scrimmage league. You cannot win without a strong LOS and some depth at the line positions. Butch Jones left us in horrible shape on both lines.
Pruitt went out and landed the best O-line class in the nation last year. But these guys are still true Freshmen in a league where true Freshmen rarely start on the line. O-line play has improved significantly in a few short months, but we're still seeing a lot of "Freshman mistakes". Yet, here's what our OL could look like next year:
Wanya Morris
Darnell Wright
Jahmir Johnson
Ryan Johnson
Jerome Carvin
Jackson Lampley
Chris Akporoghene
Marcus Tatus
K'Rojhn Calbert
If we're very lucky, we get Trey Smith back for another year, though I suspect he'll explore the draft. Add a few more recruits and I think this has the makings of an elite O-line. We're already seeing improved results this year. It takes awhile to rebuild an O-line, but I think 2020 is the year we start to see the results.
2. D-line depth will be much improved
D-line is a major weakness right now, as well. At the beginning of the season, I predicted that this would hold us back and that we’d be lucky to win 6 or 7 games. I never expected to lose to Georgia State, but nevertheless, the stats for our D-line were ugly even before the season.
Teams like Bama and Georgia run 14 or 15 deep at D-line. We run maybe 9 deep tops. And we lost our starting Nose Tackle (Emmit Gooden) before the season started. Anyone who thought we’d have an elite defense with our D-line problems was being delusional.
Unfortunately, unlike the O-line, I don’t think we have the makings of an elite D-line just yet. That said, D-line should nevertheless be much improved next season. For starters, while losing Gooden was a blow for this season, it means we have better depth next year.
Our roster includes:
Emmit Gooden
Aubrey Solomon
LaTrell Bumphus
Matthew Butler
Kurott Garland
Elijah Simmons
Simmons has been very impressive in practice, but he’s a true Freshman and I think the coaches want to redshirt him, but he should be in full action next year. Simmons will be one of the few players on the roster who will actually be a great fit at NT. We also add blue-chip recruits BJ Ojulari and Dominic Bailey. Hopefully, we can land a few other blue-chippers on the D-line, such as Jay Hardy and Tyler Baron. If we can do that, the future will look much brighter on the D-line as well.
Regardless, this is probably the worst D-line we’ll see in the Jeremy Pruitt era. It'll be better next year; not elite, but perhaps good.
3. More options at Quarterback
I admit that I didn’t expect JG to regress this badly this season. Even if JG plays like he did last year, we’re 3-2 right now. But it is what it is.
Even before the season, I was concerned about QB depth. Behind JG sat 2 Freshmen, neither of which looked ready to play just yet. But we’re playing a true Freshman now with Brian Maurer.
Personally, I think Maurer was the steal of the 2019 class (along with Quavaris Crouch). He had a monster Senior season in high school and played for a bad team; hence he was underrated as a 3-star. But you all saw his potential against Georgia. He’s still got a long way to go (as the 2nd half showed), but we’ll get better at QB.
Not only will Maurer be more experienced next year, we add transfer Kasim Hill, and blue-chip recruit Harrison Bailey. Moreover, JT Shrout will have some more experience as well. Overall, while I don’t necessarily expect us to be elite at QB in 2020, we’ll have much more in the way of options; and all of those options should be better than they are right now.
4. Elite Starting Linebackers
While we now have some depth issues at linebacker, we have some real studs in Henry To’o To’o and Quavaris Crouch. Both are true Freshmen. Both are going to be very very good. Add in another Freshman, Roman Harrison, who shows some huge potential, and we have the makings of some elite LBs. We just need more of them.
5. Elite DBs
Bryce Thompson is a shut-down corner. Alontae Taylor has struggled at times this season, but he’s still one of the best Sophomore DBs in the SEC. Warren Burrell is still a true Freshman and will only get better with time. We look in good shape at CB. We’ll have to see how things shake out at the Safety positions next season, but our top-rated recruit in the 2020 right now is Safety Keshawn Lawrence.
Reasons for Pessimism
Alright, I gave the reasons for optimism, but here are some things I am concerned about next season.
1. Lack of depth at LB
This wasn’t an issue “on the radar” before a few weeks ago, but with Will Ignont and Shannon Reid transferring, coupled with Jeremy Banks being dismissed, we now have serious depth issues at LB. We also lose Darrell Taylor and Daniel Bituli next season.
We do have several guys with the potential to be elite as LBs in Henry To’o To’o, Quavaris Crouch, and Roman Harrison, but we need many more to survive in the SEC. This is also, unfortunately, the area where it looks like our recruiting is suddenly struggling. Hopefully Pruitt and his staff figure things out and land a few more guys with potential to be elite here, but regardless, depth may be an issue in 2020.
2. Replacing Jennings and Callaway
We lose 2 NFL quality Wide Receivers in Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway. While we have some up-and-comers on the roster, this is going to be one of those scenarios where it’s almost impossible to replace these 2 guys immediately, so expect us to take a step backward at WR next year. That said, hopefully guys like Remel Keyton, Cedric Tillman, and Deangelo Gibbs can step up.
3. Help at Running Back?
We may or may not lose Ty Chandler to the draft. If we get him back next year, that’s a huge coup. If not, Eric Gray is going to have to be “the man”. Gray is very promising, but it would be nice to have some more depth behind him and Tim Jordan; can’t say I feel comfortable with where we are at RB in 2020 without either a top-notch recruit or Chandler returning.
Overall
While I expected us to sneak into a bowl game this year, I never expected us to be good. I'm disappointed by the losses to Ga State and BYU (and couldn't have seen the former happening), but I can also see we're getting better. We won't compete for the SEC title next year, but I suspect we'll take a big step forward.
As much as people hate the "youth" excuse, it's true. Butch Jones used that excuse even during his 4th and 5th seasons, which is why I think people are annoyed when they hear it now, but it's true in 2019 (it wasn't in 2016).
The real key here is whether Pruitt can continue adding big-time recruits to this team. If he does that, we'll be in much better shape in 2020 and 2021. And let's hope we can win a few down the stretch in 2019.
That is all. NegaVol away!
GBO!