'25 QB transfer prospects (Joey Aguilar)

[SmyrnaATLVolisback]

Calling my shot. Think we may throw a little more this season, but who knows.

2900 passing yards
30 TDs / 18 INTs

250 rushing yards
5 TDs

Playoff appearance for sure then. Defense will be as good as last year. Maybe better. Yes I mean it.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Great question.

I’ve actually built hundreds of small models that evaluate context for each QB metric. For every quarterback in the database, I measure how their performance changes based on fluctuations in the environment around them.

For example, if a QB’s left tackle typically has a pass-blocking grade of 65, but in a given game it drops to 55, my model can estimate how much that change likely impacted the QB’s performance—say, lowering their PFF pass grade by about a point. Same idea with receivers: if their usual receiving grade is around 60 but dips to 50 in one game, Net AYA might drop by about a yard. Next, I plug in a league‑average receiving grade (e.g. 65) into the model to see what the QB’s Net AYA would look like under average receiving talent, then adjust the raw Net AYA by that difference and I scale each metric accordingly.

When I'm evaluating a QB or building something forward-looking like a projected QBR, I can adjust for things like:
- Teammate pass-blocking
- Teammate receiving
- Teammate run-blocking
- Opponent overall defense (SP+)
- Opponent pass-rushing
- Opponent coverage

I also factor in situational details—how many receivers were on the field, whether it was a screen or play-action, etc. Plays like those tend to boost stats like Completion% and AYA, so they need to be accounted for when isolating QB performance.

As an example: Joe Milton had a top-15 raw passing grade in 2023. But once you adjust for the fact that he threw more screens than any other QB that season, his ranking drops to the mid-20s.

Pardon the essay, but hope that answers your question.

Thank you!

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Playoff appearance for sure then. Defense will be as good as last year. Maybe better. Yes I mean it.

I feel like we really need McCoy to get back .

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

No way to sugarcoat it…the only winner in this deal is UCLA. I fully expect us to do something stupid and give him 3x his market value.

UCLA got a QB with zero loyalty or leadership skills, but you've declared them the winner. Ok guy....

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Question: If Aguilar was so good in 2023, why didn’t a bigger school with more money scoop him up?

UCLA got him for a discount and just passed him on to us for our 5 star.

What a joke. I seriously question Heupel’s judgement.

Don’t you think Heupel has earned a bit of equity over the past 4 years? He took over a dumpster fire that no one was willing to jump into and has accomplished more than any other coach has in the past 25+ years.

 

[SmyrnaATLVolisback]

I feel like we really need McCoy to get back .

Of course we do. He’s a lock down corner. But we have some young talent and McMurray to hold it down until he is back. Gibson and Boo are players and will feast. Safety play will be better this season. Farooq and Thomas are upgrades next to Andre. Beasley is a year older and can fill a CB spot too.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

View attachment 737449

Vegas still respects our offense and they know that if he does well then his story is going to be talked about A LOT.

 

[FBtime]

Goes both ways. He absolutely did not have the talent or coaching around him to put him in a remotely decent position to succeed against that Clemson defense.

Kurtis Rourke went 14/30 for 119 yards against Penn State and 5.9 YPA (with 2 picks) against Iowa St. when he played for Ohio, then put up a 69% 23/4 line in Big Ten games this year. You can't measure G5 QBs strictly by their counting stats against good opponents. It just doesn't translate.

That is a GREAT point about Rourke and a very apt comparison of how raising the talent around you will produce better results despite the level of competition also being raised

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

Keep in mind that Heupel is known to hold grudges. If he feels like his starting QB is able (especially if it's Aguilar), then he's going to have them throwing the ball a good bit. You can bet that a close number 2 on his wish list behind winning every game is to make sure the narrative is that our offense ended up improving without Nico.

 

[Vols410]

That is a GREAT point about Rourke and a very apt comparison of how raising the talent around you will produce better results despite the level of competition also being raised

Rourke, Pavia, and Aguilar are all very different players, but I think it's very likely that Aguilar's game translates to the SEC as well as the other two did to Indiana / Vanderbilt. The three of them have been bunched together near the top of my G5 QB lists for a while now.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Of course we do. He’s a lock down corner. But we have some young talent and McMurray to hold it down until he is back. Gibson and Boo are players and will feast. Safety play will be better this season. Farooq and Thomas are upgrades next to Andre. Beasley is a year older and can fill a CB spot too.

I miss the days when we had absolute head knockers at safety. I feel like of all the positions that we no longer have elite players at, safety is one that we no longer have game changers. Going back to Deon Grant, Gibril Wilson, Baker, Jason Allen, Eric Berry.. etc.. Like you said, hopefully Farooq and Thomas will can continue to improve and be difference makers.

 

[SmyrnaATLVolisback]

I miss the days when we had absolute head knockers at safety. I feel like of all the positions that we no longer have elite players at, safety is one that we no longer have game changers. Going back to Deon Grant, Gibril Wilson, Baker, Jason Allen, Eric Berry.. etc.. Like you said, hopefully Farooq and Thomas will can continue to improve and be difference makers.

Farooq is a stud. Thomas is a thumper. They trust Andre which is why he plays. Andre is not special but he is a good player. I actually like all levels of this defense this year. First year I can say that under Heupel. It’s always been one level that needs help like
Linebacker or DBs. LB was a big drop off when Pili got hurt. I don’t think that happens this year with all the young talent and Spillman/Carter. I think the DL is more athletic this year and will wreak havoc.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Don’t you think Heupel has earned a bit of equity over the past 4 years? He’s took over a dumpster fire that no one was willing to jump into and has accomplished more than any other coach has in the past 25+ years.

No. You are only as good as your last loss in this sport, both on and off the field.

Momentum is huge in college football. Both positive and negative. Due to recruiting and development, you can start an upward or downward trend that is hard to break from easily. Plus we have unlimited free agency, meaning kids can just up and leave whenever they feel like the program is on a downward trend and they want to abandon ship early. I am hyper focused on how the rest of this week goes before I feel a little better about this, as we are a Boo Carter, Ricky Gibson, or even a Mike Mathews departure away from downgrading our 2025 projections even further.

That is why I question this. I have stated this before in various responses: we are a bubble team that can see our bubble pop very quickly. I appreciate what Heupel has done, but his success can evaporate quickly if this move doesn't pan out.

Few people know the details of the Nico situation, but I really wished we could have worked out a deal or cut him back in December instead of letting them hold us over until the last minute.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Farooq is a stud. Thomas is a thumper. They trust Andre which is why he plays. Andre is not special but he is a good player. I actually like all levels of this defense this year. First year I can say that under Heupel. It’s always been one level that needs help like
Linebacker or DBs. LB was a big drop off when Pili got hurt. I don’t think that happens this year with all the young talent and Spillman/Carter. I think the DL is more athletic this year and will wreak havoc.

I completely agree. It’ll be nice to have some quality guys at linebacker. I feel like in almost every game that we’ve lost the last 2 years that they have played very poorly .

 

[YankeeVol]

No. You are only as good as your last loss in this sport, both on and off the field.

Momentum is huge in college football. Both positive and negative. Due to recruiting and development, you can start an upward or downward trend that is hard to break from easily. Plus we have unlimited free agency, meaning kids can just up and leave whenever they feel like the program is on a downward trend and they want to abandon ship early. I am hyper focused on how the rest of this week goes before I feel a little better about this, as we are a Boo Carter, Ricky Gibson, or even a Mike Mathews departure away from downgrading our 2025 projections even further.

That is why I question this. I have stated this before in various responses: we are a bubble team that can see our bubble pop very quickly. I appreciate what Heupel has done, but his success can evaporate quickly if this move doesn't pan out.

Few people know the details of the Nico situation, but I really wished we could have worked out a deal or cut him back in December instead of letting them hold us over until the last minute.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

No. You are only as good as your last loss in this sport, both on and off the field.

Momentum is huge in college football. Both positive and negative. Due to recruiting and development, you can start an upward or downward trend that is hard to break from easily. Plus we have unlimited free agency, meaning kids can just up and leave whenever they feel like the program is on a downward trend and they want to abandon ship early. I am hyper focused on how the rest of this week goes before I feel a little better about this, as we are a Boo Carter, Ricky Gibson, or even a Mike Mathews departure away from downgrading our 2025 projections even further.

That is why I question this. I have stated this before in various responses: we are a bubble team that can see our bubble pop very quickly. I appreciate what Heupel has done, but his success can evaporate quickly if this move doesn't pan out.

Few people know the details of the Nico situation, but I really wished we could have worked out a deal or cut him back in December instead of letting them hold us over until the last minute.

That’s fine, I respect your opinion, but when you say you question this, what exactly would our other options have been given that the circumstances unfolded the way that they did? Hindsight is 20/20, but given everything we did for Nico’s family, fighting for him w/ the NCAA, etc.. did anyone in their right mind really believe they would leave for a massive pay cut for at a third rate program? If we let him leave in January he could wind up at UGA, Bama, Auburn etc….I don’t think that should be discounted as far as our motivation for just cutting him. If he had proper representation and advice this whole thing could’ve and most likely would’ve been avoided.

 

[sonofUT62]

That’s a bad thing to look at. App States online was getting absolutely abused by Clemson. No QB is doing anything with that kind of oline play. That said this ain’t sexy by any means and at the end of the day it doesn’t have to be sexy now. Hopefully it will be in the fall.

Or it doesn’t have to be sexy if we rush for 3K again. I think we can pretty accurately gauge his ceiling. If he raises the floor by throwing fewer picks and lightens some of the boxes up……

 

[YankeeVol]

 

[SergeantVol]

no....but he still has to play well against good teams as Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Texas type teams. I also realize he put up good stats at App State but App State's schedule was far from an SEC schedule...he put up big numbers on some weak schools. He may turn out to be a good QB against a consistent, tough SEC schedule...he missed spring practice so Heupel has fall practice to work with him....hope things go well...

App State's 2024 schedule.

2024 Football Schedule - App State Athletics

The official 2024 Football schedule for the Appalachian State University Mountaineers

appstatesports.com

2023 schedule

2023 Football Schedule - App State Athletics

The official 2023 Football schedule for the Appalachian State University Mountaineers

appstatesports.com

Football is a tam sport. Basing your evaluation of performance against Clemson who has a lot more all around talent than App state is a false equivalency. If he had an O line, receivers, RB, and a TE on clemson’s level, than it would be a fair comparison. The man can only make decisions, run, and/or throw the ball. He can’t block the defense, catch his own passes, or focus the defenses attention away from himself.

 

[jasonvol18]

Calling my shot. Think we may throw a little more this season, but who knows.

2900 passing yards
30 TDs / 18 INTs

250 rushing yards
5 TDs

I can see everything but the 18 int's. I'd put it closer to 8-10 Int's tops. We've got a very manageable schedule and don't have to play Texas, Ole Miss nor S.Car or AU, who I believe will be improved. Miss St, Vandy,Arkansas,KY,Okla then our big 3. With decent to good QB play, we can go 9-3 or 10-2 with some injury luck. Hell, even Ala and GA are breaking in new QB's that don't have Aguilar's experience and who knows if Lagway will even play.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

That’s fine, I respect your opinion, but when you say you question this, what exactly would our other options have been given that the circumstances unfolded the way that they did? Hindsight is 20/20, but given everything we did for Nico’s family, fighting for him w/ the NCAA, etc.. did anyone in their right mind really believe they would leave for a massive pay cut for at a third rate program? If we let him leave in January he could wind up at UGA, Bama, Auburn etc….I don’t think that should be discounted as far as our motivation for just cutting him. If he had proper representation and advice this whole thing could’ve and most likely would’ve been avoided.

Fair points all around

 

[jasonvol18]

No way to sugarcoat it…the only winner in this deal is UCLA. I fully expect us to do something stupid and give him 3x his market value.

You are one not hearing all the bad publicity they are getting and all the jokes being thrown at them. TN is the winner in this deal and it's not even debatable.

 

[SergeantVol]

Question: If Aguilar was so good in 2023, why didn’t a bigger school with more money scoop him up?

UCLA got him for a discount and just passed him on to us for our 5 star.

What a joke. I seriously question Heupel’s judgement.

Yeah all 5 stars are equal. Do you think Nico played like a 5 star? The rating is based on perceived potential. Sometimes they get it wrong. Some play above their rating and some below their rating. Development has much more to do with performance than the star rating does. Do you even watch college football?

 

[SergeantVol]

People see Appalachian State so he must suck. They have no idea what supporting cast he had and have never seen him play. I wish I sucked if that means I threw for over 7,000 yards and UCLA was paying me $1.3 million to play college football. Heupel does know quarterbacks so let’s give the guy a chance.

Everyone on here knows more about offense and QB development than Coach Heupel. That’s why we all make millions of dollars coaching college football. Oh wait….

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Yeah all 5 stars are equal. Do you think Nico played like a 5 star? The rating is based on perceived potential. Sometimes they get it wrong. Some play above their rating and some below their rating. Development has much more to do with performance than the star rating does. Do you even watch college football?

No, I just comment here without watching.