'25 QB transfer prospects (Joey Aguilar)

[Garren04]

If Merk plays his cards right and continues to improve, he can be the starter next year.

If doesn’t take the job right now then it’s not happening

 

[MarcoVol]

If doesn’t take the job right now then it’s not happening

Says who

 

[knoxvol52]

Says who

Says the individual above your post. Geesh..

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Can’t take you serious with that username…

Sir yes sir

 

[Rockytopoftheworld]

If doesn’t take the job right now then it’s not happening

Next off season is Merks window. He will be competing against Mac and a true freshman Faizon Brandon. That’s his window

 

[Vols410]

Where is Pavia?

Whoops, edited! Skipped over the name. He's in that second tier.

 

[LowKey]

If doesn’t take the job right now then it’s not happening

So you're saying his future is Merky?

 

[Orangeslice13]

So you're saying his future is Merky?

 

[TrippieRedd]

Calling my shot. Think we may throw a little more this season, but who knows.

2900 passing yards
30 TDs / 18 INTs

250 rushing yards
5 TDs

 

[Blake25p]

Calling my shot. Think we may throw a little more this season, but who knows.

2900 passing yards
30 TDs / 18 INTs

250 rushing yards
5 TDs

18INT’s? Tennessee QB’s have thrown 18INT’s total in the 4 years CJH has been here.

 

[TrippieRedd]

18INT’s? Tennessee QB’s have thrown 18INT’s total in the 4 years CJH has been here.

Who knows, he may not throw that many.

 

[VOLED]

Who knows, he may not throw that many.

May depend on our rushing game. Running game is unproven at this point.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Calling my shot. Think we may throw a little more this season, but who knows.

2900 passing yards
30 TDs / 18 INTs

250 rushing yards
5 TDs

I like where your head is but I think ~10 INTs is more in line with our offense, and probably a tad fewer throwing TDs. Only basing this off of Aguilar's 2023 numbers. Because we spread the field so much, we don't often throw into tight windows and heavy coverages. At least, we haven't the last two years because the guys behind center were not able to.

Even Hooker didn't have to needle the ball so much. He had a lot of open guys because of the scheme. His ball placement was elite too, but he just had to hit the side of the receiver that was away from the defender most of the time.

 

[NMVol]

Play fast!! Spread the field!!

 

[LotteryPick]

May depend on our rushing game. Running game is unproven at this point.

Three guys with experience and a coach that always runs the ball well feels like proven to me

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Middle of the pack. He would've been 9th last year but there's a ton of attrition to graduation / NFL at QB this year.

Still working out some kinks, but as of now...

Tier 1
Garrett Nussmeier
LaNorris Sellers
John Mateer

Tier 2
Arch Manning
DJ Lagway
Diego Pavia
Taylen Green
Joey Aguilar

Tier 3
Gunner Stockton
Jackson Arnold
Marcel Reed
Blake Shapen
Beau Pribula

Tier 4
Austin Simmons
Ty Simpson
Zach Calzada

Players without much playing time are really hard to evaluate, so guys like Manning/Lagway could go up a ton and who really knows what Stockton / Pribula / Simmons / Simpson will do.

How does your model adjust for the talent around the QB?

 

[VOLED]

Three guys with experience and a coach that always runs the ball well feels like proven to me

Not saying it won't happen, but we return 25% of our rushing yards this year. If the O line comes along, I can see some good numbers from Bishop and Lewis- probably Morris, too. I forgot about Thomas.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

View attachment 737425

Next off season is Merks window. He will be competing against Mac and a true freshman Faizon Brandon. That’s his window

He’s another side of that. If Pavia can get an extra year bc he played JUCO, in theory Aguilar can play 2 seasons in Tennessee. Isn’t that right ?

 

[JCVol00]

Calling my shot. Think we may throw a little more this season, but who knows.

2900 passing yards
30 TDs / 18 INTs

250 rushing yards
5 TDs

My shot:

61% comp
214/351 passing attempts
2784 passing yards
24 td 8 int
275 rushing yards
5 rushing tds

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Calling my shot. Think we may throw a little more this season, but who knows.

2900 passing yards
30 TDs / 18 INTs

250 rushing yards
5 TDs

If he starts getting close to double digit picks then I think we’ll be in some trouble and Aguilar will be taking a seat.

 

[jmacvols1]

Did you watch more than the Clemson game of his film?

no....but he still has to play well against good teams as Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Texas type teams. I also realize he put up good stats at App State but App State's schedule was far from an SEC schedule...he put up big numbers on some weak schools. He may turn out to be a good QB against a consistent, tough SEC schedule...he missed spring practice so Heupel has fall practice to work with him....hope things go well...

App State's 2024 schedule.

2024 Football Schedule - App State Athletics

The official 2024 Football schedule for the Appalachian State University Mountaineers

appstatesports.com

2023 schedule

2023 Football Schedule - App State Athletics

The official 2023 Football schedule for the Appalachian State University Mountaineers

appstatesports.com

 

[swchandler1988]

 

[Vols410]

How does your model adjust for the talent around the QB?

Great question.

I’ve actually built hundreds of small models that evaluate context for each QB metric. For every quarterback in the database, I measure how their performance changes based on fluctuations in the environment around them.

For example, if a QB’s left tackle typically has a pass-blocking grade of 65, but in a given game it drops to 55, my model can estimate how much that change likely impacted the QB’s performance—say, lowering their PFF pass grade by about a point. Same idea with receivers: if their usual receiving grade is around 60 but dips to 50 in one game, Net AYA might drop by about a yard. Next, I plug in a league‑average receiving grade (e.g. 65) into the model to see what the QB’s Net AYA would look like under average receiving talent, then adjust the raw Net AYA by that difference and I scale each metric accordingly.

When I'm evaluating a QB or building something forward-looking like a projected QBR, I can adjust for things like:
- Teammate pass-blocking
- Teammate receiving
- Teammate run-blocking
- Opponent overall defense (SP+)
- Opponent pass-rushing
- Opponent coverage

I also factor in situational details—how many receivers were on the field, whether it was a screen or play-action, etc. Plays like those tend to boost stats like Completion% and AYA, so they need to be accounted for when isolating QB performance.

As an example: Joe Milton had a top-15 raw passing grade in 2023. But once you adjust for the fact that he threw more screens than any other QB that season, his ranking drops to the mid-20s.

Pardon the essay, but hope that answers your question.

 

[Vols410]

no....but he still has to play well against good teams as Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Texas type teams. I also realize he put up good stats at App State but App State's schedule was far from an SEC schedule...he put up big numbers on some weak schools. He may turn out to be a good QB against a consistent, tough SEC schedule...he missed spring practice so Heupel has fall practice to work with him....hope things go well...

App State's 2024 schedule.

2024 Football Schedule - App State Athletics

The official 2024 Football schedule for the Appalachian State University Mountaineers

appstatesports.com

2023 schedule

2023 Football Schedule - App State Athletics

The official 2023 Football schedule for the Appalachian State University Mountaineers

appstatesports.com

Goes both ways. He absolutely did not have the talent or coaching around him to put him in a remotely decent position to succeed against that Clemson defense.

Kurtis Rourke went 14/30 for 119 yards against Penn State and 5.9 YPA (with 2 picks) against Iowa St. when he played for Ohio, then put up a 69% 23/4 line in Big Ten games this year. You can't measure G5 QBs strictly by their counting stats against good opponents. It just doesn't translate.

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

Question: If Aguilar was so good in 2023, why didn’t a bigger school with more money scoop him up?

UCLA got him for a discount and just passed him on to us for our 5 star.

What a joke. I seriously question Heupel’s judgement.

Maybe he was happy at App State. He left because the coach got fired.