'25 QB transfer prospects (Joey Aguilar)

#2,403
#2,403
Trying to figure out what the heck happened with Aguilar between 2023 and 2024.

His performance in 2023 was rated #35 in my database, worth 37 points above the average FBS qb. That dropped to #57 this year at +17 points.

My model likes his arm, accuracy, his ability to avoid sacks, and general efficiency numbers (first down rate, positive play rate, etc.) a ton. He's in the top 25 of most of those. The big ding against him now is turnovers. The interceptions got him this year, but he probably threw less than he should have given his TWP rate in 2023.

Somehow my model has him in the top 30 or so of talent grades despite the turnovers, and in the same tier as guys like Becht and above Altmyer. Most of this is likely due to his ability to not take sacks (which, as I've said before is probably the most underrated QB stat in terms of predicting win impact) and what he adds in the run game.

He doesn't have familiarity with a Heupel-like offense like Altmyer does, but if anyone can fix the turnover thing it's Heupel. I could see Aguilar blowing up here.
 
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#2,405
#2,405
FBtime said:
He actually had a pretty good 2023. He's decently mobile. 36 total TDs. Took NC to double overtime. The whole team regressed last year and the coach was fired so there was some sh going on with that team. Anyone that thinks this is a bad move doesn't know ball.
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If the 2023 and 2024 seasons were flipped it would make me feel a lot better.
 
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#2,406
#2,406
Vols410 said:
Trying to figure out what the heck happened with Aguilar between 2023 and 2024.

His performance in 2023 was rated #35 in my database, worth 37 points above the average FBS qb. That dropped to #57 this year at +17 points.

My model likes his arm, accuracy, his ability to avoid sacks, and general efficiency numbers (first down rate, positive play rate, etc.) a ton. He's in the top 25 of most of those. The big ding against him now is turnovers. The interceptions got him this year, but he probably threw less than he should have given his TWP rate in 2023.

Somehow my model has him in the top 30 or so of talent grades despite the turnovers, and in the same tier as guys like Becht and above Altmyer. Most of this is likely due to his ability to not take sacks (which, as I've said before is probably the most underrated QB stat in terms of predicting win impact) and what he adds in the run game.

He doesn't have familiarity with a Heupel-like offense like Altmyer does, but if anyone can fix the turnover thing it's Heupel. I could see Aguilar blowing up here.
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I’d like to see what he can do with better weapons like Matthews, Brazzell, and hopefully those portal WRs.

Never had anything like them
 
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#2,409
#2,409
FBtime said:
He actually had a pretty good 2023. He's decently mobile. 36 total TDs. Took NC to double overtime. The whole team regressed last year and the coach was fired so there was some sh going on with that team. Anyone that thinks this is a bad move doesn't know ball.
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Not exactly murders row.

Lets face it: he had a bad last year, transferred to a UCLA program that is not serious about football to compete for the starting job, and is now transferring out after UCLA got a discount former 5* who didn't really do a lot last year to help his team other than hand the ball off to a real playmaker.
 
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#2,414
#2,414
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
Not exactly murders row.

Lets face it: he had a bad last year, transferred to a UCLA program that is not serious about football to compete for the starting job, and is now transferring out after UCLA got a discount former 5* who didn't really do a lot last year to help his team other than hand the ball off to a real playmaker.
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Yup, UCLA is the only one that benefited from this nightmare.
 
#2,416
#2,416
VOLumeS said:
I can appreciate your optimism.
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What quarterback at UT hasn't been at least a serviceable game manager after Heupel got their hands on him? You guys forget that we have real coaches now. Not the used car salesmen of the 2010s. Whoever it is is going to have a high TD-INT ratio and will have a rb room go over 2000 yards. And if he's not good? Guess what.... we have 2 top 20 QBs (recruiting ranking) already on the roster. We're gonna be fine.
 
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#2,418
#2,418
hotcypress said:
remember guys, the media is only going to cover qbs in the portal. they are not going to address any qbs in the decision making process regarding entering the portal. Altmyer is not out until we see (1) him make a public statement confirming he's staying put or (2) an article from a real media outlet reporting an increase in NIL for him. None of our insiders want to show the hands being played under the table until we know we're going to win. be patient.
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What if he never makes a public statement, he doesn't get an increase in NIL, and he still doesn't come to Tennessee?

Chris Low is as dialed in as anyone. If he hasn't mentioned Altmyer, then it's because there is nothing there.
 
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#2,422
#2,422
BigSteve09 said:
Nakos and Chris Low saying we are very involved, putting positive spin on the fit. AP says we're interested. Insider on another site just said we're going all in and thinks it will be a good fit.

Start packing this one up
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Agree. I can’t believe we struck out this bad have got to this point. Better hope merk can get you to 8-4 or you lose everything you’ve built up this point, and puts in Heupel in a must win year in 2026
 
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