I would give him at least one more year. In general, I am with others in that I would need at least 8-4 or so to keep him after that. On the one hand, I could see how we lost so many games this year when we had so many top-five teams on our schedule, but on the other we need to aspire (and expect) to be in that top-five group ourselves and the only way to do that is to beat at least some of those teams.
Also, there have been many top coaches who had a tough first few years of their careers. And he really did inherit a huge mess when he got here, which needs to be considered. Especially for his first two years. Now that we are entering year three and now have a stable athletics director, that needs to be moved on from.
I believe that Dooley can get it done at UT's standards in the long run. But because of what he inherited, it may take longer than his first year or two to start seeing that. Also, we cannot keep going through coaches. Even if we let Dooley go after 2012, that would mean four coaches in six seasons which could hurt our program much more than keeping Dooley might.