Primary Issues with CKC System

[JL1231]

Would be coaching malpractice if she doesn't?

Zee played 30 or more minutes in 9 games with a high of 38 minutes when she scored 23 points. Mia played 35 and 36 minutes in games where she scored 21 points each.
Cooper played 30 or more minutes in 13 games. So unless we have a comparable sub for Edwards; I can see her getting increased minutes.

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

I asked ChatGPT, "Looking at the University of Tennessee's women's basketball team this season, what were their most glaring deficiencies in their overall losses vs their wins?" Its bottom-line diagnosis: They were a high-variance team built on pace and pressure—but without the efficiency or structure to survive when that style broke down.

Even though I know Caldwell intends to stick with her system next year, I then asked, "Why did the team struggle so much this year and what are some of the key adjustments Coach Caldwell needs to make to markedly improve their play next year?"

The short answer: it wasn’t just one problem—it was a system/roster mismatch that created extreme volatility.

Now let’s break it down clearly for the 2025–26 Tennessee Lady Volunteers basketball under Kim Caldwell, and then get very specific about what needs to change.

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WHY TENNESSEE STRUGGLED (ROOT CAUSES)​

1) System–Roster Mismatch (the biggest issue)​

Kim Caldwell brought a full-court pressure, high-possession system that works best with:

• multiple ball handlers
• elite decision-makers
• high-IQ, low-turnover guards
• consistent shooting

Tennessee’s reality:​

• Turnover-prone guards
• Streaky shooters
• Limited half-court creators

Result: The system amplified their weaknesses instead of their strengths

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2) Turnover Paradox (fatal flaw)​

They were built to win the turnover battle—but often didn’t.

What they needed:​

• +6 to +10 turnover margin to dominate

What actually happened in losses:​

• Margin shrank → or flipped negative

Why this killed them:​

• Their offense depends on extra possessions
• Without that edge:
  • half-court inefficiency gets exposed
  • shot quality declines

This is why they looked great vs weak teams and inconsistent vs good ones.

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3) No Reliable Half-Court Identity​

When games slowed down (which good teams forced), they had:

• no consistent pick-and-roll system
• no structured late-clock offense
• no dependable “go-to action”

What possessions became:​

• isolation
• forced drives
• contested threes

Against elite teams, this is a non-starter

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4) Shooting Variability (system breaker)​

This system requires spacing to function

Problem:​

• 3PT shooting was:
  • high volume
  • low consistency

Chain reaction:​

Miss → no press setup → opponent controls tempo → fewer turnovers → worse offense

Their shooting inconsistency didn’t just hurt offense—it broke the entire system.

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5) Over-rotation & Lack of Lineup Stability​

Kim Caldwell used:

• 9–11 player rotations
• constantly changing lineups

Impact:​

• No chemistry continuity
• Assist/turnover ratio suffered
• No defined closing group

They never developed a trusted “best 5”

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6) No Secondary Creator / Offensive Redundancy​

When primary actions were stopped:

• No Plan B
• No second initiator
• No reliable inside-out structure

Good defenses took away Option A—and Tennessee had nothing consistent behind it.

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WHAT CALDWELL MUST FIX (ACTIONABLE ADJUSTMENTS)​

1) Install a Real Half-Court System (non-negotiable)​

This is the #1 priority.

Needed additions:​

• Structured pick-and-roll packages
• Set plays for late-clock situations
• Defined roles (primary / secondary creator)

Goal:​

Raise half-court efficiency from:

• ~0.80 PPP → ~0.95+

Even a modest improvement here dramatically raises their floor.

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2) Tighten the Rotation (play 7–8, not 10–11)​

Why:​

• Lineup data showed bench-heavy units were consistently negative

Adjustment:​

• Shorten rotation
• Increase shared minutes among top players

Expected impact:​

• Better chemistry
• Lower turnovers
• Higher shot quality

---

3) Define a Closing Lineup​

Right now: none
Next year: must be clear

Needs:​

• best decision-maker
• best scorer
• best shooter
• best defensive anchor

This alone fixes multiple late-game losses.

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4) Reduce Turnover Risk WITHOUT Losing Pressure​

Not less aggressive—more controlled aggression

Specific changes:​

• Fewer risky cross-court passes
• Better spacing on drives
• More secondary ball handlers

Target:​

• Cut turnover rate by ~3–5%

That’s the difference between a +2 and +7 turnover margin.

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5) Prioritize Shooting (personnel + scheme)​

Either:

• Recruit portal shooters
• OR redesign offense to generate easier looks

Needed:​

• 2+ reliable 35–38% 3PT shooters

Without this, the system will always be fragile.

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6) Add an Interior Scoring Anchor​

They need:

• someone who can:
  • score in the post
  • draw fouls
  • stabilize possessions

Why:​

• Forces defenses to collapse
• Opens perimeter shooting
• Slows game when needed

This is the missing “release valve” in bad stretches.

---

7) Situational Identity: Learn to Win Ugly​

Right now:

• They only win playing fast

Next step:

• Be able to win:
  • in the 60s
  • in half-court games
  • late-possession scenarios

That’s what separates them from teams like South Carolina Gamecocks women's basketball and UConn Huskies women's basketball

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FINAL DIAGNOSIS​

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What Improvement Looks Like (Next Year)​

If Caldwell:

• adds structure
• tightens rotations
• improves shooting
• reduces turnovers slightly

This team jumps from:

• inconsistent/top-25 range

to:

• legitimate SEC contender with Final Four upside

The coach only knows one way. Would you want to bring her back to coach a style she’s never coached?

 

[1morevol]

Zee played 30 or more minutes in 9 games with a high of 38 minutes when she scored 23 points. Mia played 35 and 36 minutes in games where she scored 21 points each.
Cooper played 30 or more minutes in 13 games. So unless we have a comparable sub for Edwards; I can see her getting increased minutes.

You are correct. I've posted those same numbers myself on occasion. There were some games where 5 playes got close to 160 minutes. If Edwards is as good as advertised, I don't think Coach would shorten her minutes just to stay within her system.

 

[glv98]

The coach only knows one way. Would you want to bring her back to coach a style she’s never coached?

Because the one way she does know just produced the worst season in LV history. Try something new instead of pursuing the definition of insanity.

You are correct. I've posted those same numbers myself on occasion. There were some games where 5 playes got close to 160 minutes. If Edwards is as good as advertised, I don't think Coach would shorten her minutes just to stay within her system.

For the millionth time, it’s not so much the total number of minutes as the chopped up way they occur, with players being pulled every two or three minutes. That causes no rhythm, no flow and odd player combinations and matchups.

 

[spojo13]

Because the one way she does know just produced the worst season in LV history. Try something new instead of pursuing the definition of insanity.

For the millionth time, it’s not so much the total number of minutes as the chopped up way they occur, with players being pulled every two or three minutes. That causes no rhythm, no flow and odd player combinations and matchups.

Also, 13 games is less than half of our games in a 16-14 season. For over half of this almost .500 record season, our leading scorer didn’t play 75% of the game. I could understand her not hitting 30 minutes in blowouts against weak teams, but she played 75% of the game in less games than we lost.

 

[JL1231]

Because the one way she does know just produced the worst season in LV history. Try something new instead of pursuing the definition of insanity.

For the millionth time, it’s not so much the total number of minutes as the chopped up way they occur, with players being pulled every two or three minutes. That causes no rhythm, no flow and odd player combinations and matchups.

As I have responded previously, this "no rhythm, no flow" perception was not reflected in the data last year. As Kim has stated several times, she could not find combinations that worked consistently this year. IMO that was because we didn't get adequate replacements for Jewel, Tess, Samara, Sara and we lost Ruby. So it is the same argument over and over. IMO the roster was not as good as last years roster. Regardless of what rating ESPN gave to the portal class in 2025. Which player from the portal class besides Barker would have played significant minutes for any team in the SEC ranked in the top 8 ? I will not argue with the ranking of the freshmen class, but they were freshmen, so they typically take time to develop into a player that matches their ranking. Jewel and Tess were 5th year seniors. Samara was a 4 year starter in the SEC. And again and again and again it is Kim's fault for not getting the players she needed.

 

[1morevol]

Because the one way she does know just produced the worst season in LV history. Try something new instead of pursuing the definition of insanity.

For the millionth time, it’s not so much the total number of minutes as the chopped up way they occur, with players being pulled every two or three minutes. That causes no rhythm, no flow and odd player combinations and matchups.

I don't like the system either and agree with your assessment. I was simply pointing out that, system aside, what most would consider the better players get most of the minutes. Too often it seemed that a player would get in a groove only to be yanked out for the perfunctory substitution to return a minute later with her mojo iced. If Edwards is elite she'll be one of the players getting more minutes. Maybe she will be able to maintain her momentum running on and off the court. I doubt it. Thanks for reminding me a million times how the system works. I didn’t realize it had been that many. I know I can be quite stupid sometimes so it's nice to have posters like you to keep me straight and point out the errors in my thinking.

 

[1reVOLver]

64/360=0.178

64 The LVs were one of the NCAA tournament's 64 teams.
360 There are approximately 360 Div. 1 WBB teams. Some sources say there are 362.
0.178. Rounding, the tournament participants are 18% of the total.

The “system”, including coaches, players, and tactics, was good enough to place the Lady Vols in the top 18% of Div. 1 teams. Unless well heeled sponsors pour buckets of NIL $$ into the hands of potential portal transfers, the player part of the equation will likely not improve much.

According to squirrel-in-chief Head Coach KC, tactics will not change. Therefore, the only element with a possibility of significant improvement is a major shakeup of the coaching staff.

 

[chuckiepoo]

I don't like the system either and agree with your assessment. I was simply pointing out that, system aside, what most would consider the better players get most of the minutes. Too often it seemed that a player would get in a groove only to be yanked out for the perfunctory substitution to return a minute later with her mojo iced. If Edwards is elite she'll be one of the players getting more minutes. Maybe she will be able to maintain her momentum running on and off the court. I doubt it. Thanks for reminding me a million times how the system works. I didn’t realize it had been that many. I know I can be quite stupid sometimes so it's nice to have posters like you to keep me straight and point out the errors in my thinking.

@RetroVol did a great job of providing a breakdown of the substitution patterns as the SEC part of the season progressed. It was shocking to follow.

 

[1morevol]

@RetroVol did a great job of providing a breakdown of the substitution patterns as the SEC part of the season progressed. It was shocking to follow.

It's hard to follow during a game also.

 

[chuckiepoo]

It's hard to follow during a game also.

I agree. Sometimes it’s obvious she’s pulling a hot player, other times, not so much.

 

[kamoshika]

Good piece from a year ago talks about Caldwell's subbing strategy, which sounds overly complex to my simple basketball mind:

“That is not that bad to transition to” as a player or coach, Angel Rizor, an assistant on the Glenville, Marshall and Tennessee teams, told Yahoo Sports. “It’s more so the subbing.” When Rizor, a four-year starter at Cincinnati from 2016-20, initially interviewed with Caldwell, she didn’t know the “magnitude” of the subbing Caldwell requires. Every minute or two, a new five check into the game to keep legs fresh and the relenting pressure at a high bar. The groupings are not always the same.

The Lady Vols had 16 different starting lineups — known as “first five” in Caldwell’s system — over the course of 31 games. The “next five” also vary based on prior performance, stats and, in what is now Rizor’s job, in-game vibes. “Sometimes we have players that technically probably are leading scores, but if they’re not hitting that game, you can't just leave them in the game,” Rizor said. “But then we do have groups where certain people will play with certain people they’re more confident with, so we do have groups we try to stick to. But if we can’t … it’s a feel.”

The “hockey subs” put additional pressure on opposing players racking up 30-plus minutes a game, growing tired by the final buzzer with the constant defensive attention. And it alleviates a mental and physical fatigue for their own players, who take 3-pointers early in the shot clock and are pressing, jumping and trapping non-stop defensively, in slightly different ways each game. “The system itself depends on who we play,” Rizor said. “Even though people think our press is just chaotic, we do have certain ways we want to do it, but it changes based upon who we’re playing. We will change things up a lot. There’s no way we’re going to do a certain thing each time.”

In Glenville State’s championship season, 11 players averaged at least 10 minutes per game. Stone averaged a team-high 22.8 minutes and started all but two of their 36 games, an anomaly. Winfield averaged 21 minutes and started 24 games. “Her coaching style [makes her special],” Stone said. “Being able to use all her players, and just believing in each one of them, and just trusting that they're all buying into what she's coaching. I don’t know too many coaches doing it the way she’s doing it.”

The constant lineup changes was the most difficult change the coaching staff experienced taking the system to the DI level. DII athletes will largely “do whatever is needed to play,” Rizor said, so they can continue their basketball careers for a little longer. At Marshall, she said it was hard for the star players. “They’re used to playing 30 to 40 minutes a game,” Rizor said. “Typically at [the] DI level, if you’re the best player, you’re staying on that floor. So that was an adjustment to them.”

That’s where the coaching staff is imperative, she said, in explaining the pros of the system and instilling confidence in every player. The benefit is earning rest and breaks, rather than playing 10 minutes straight. And the role players beyond the top five or six are gaining time on the floor they wouldn’t have otherwise. “For all I knew, regular basketball was, you have your players, your seven, maybe eight, and you rock with those players,” said Cecil, who Caldwell hired as a graduate assistant at Marshall and Tennessee. “It’s real team basketball, you know what I mean? You have to buy into it and keep that good mindset.”
Inside Kim Caldwell's bold, polarizing plan to restore glory to Tennessee women's basketball