Here's what I think:
Cal--?. Average QB, very good RB/WR duo with DeSean Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, but lost 3 seniors from the OL. TN comes out firing and proves that the discipline and execution problems of last year are in the past (that's of course assuming CPF and co. do get a handle on it). The reason there's a ? is Ainge; if he starts out well and gets some confidence, he'll be fine. But if he starts to lose it, his implosion would be so great as to create a black hole right there in the middle of Neyland Stadium.
Florida--?. Chris Leak blossomed into a great passing QB last year, but isn't much of a dual threat anymore, and he just lost his top two receivers (So will Percey Harvin make big contributions as a freshman?). Plus, their leading rusher last year, DeShawn Wynn, had only 2 games with 100+ rushing yards (on 16 and 19 carries). Against TN last year? 17 carries for 52 yards. TN will have problems moving the ball against this defense, though. This team is beatable, but as always it's gonna be close.
Marshall--Win. Is there a position on the field where TN doesn't match up with more talent than the Thundering Herd?
@Memphis--They went 6-5 with DeAngelo Williams. Now they don't have him or their seinior QB. Should be a much easier game to win than in years past (though last year we didn't have to face him, thank god).
@Georgia--? This could be a tougher game than many people who think Georgia is down this year believe. Thomas Brown and Danny Ware make up a very good backfield, and the O-Line will be good. They still have a big ? at QB, but Stafford is very good; don't forget Ainge went into GA as a freshman and got a victory.
Alabama--Win. Didn't generate much offense last year, and won't generate much this year, especially with the loss of Tyrone Prothro. They always play TN with high emotions (from what, passion? searing anger? rage burning hotter than the fire of a thousand suns? Who cares?) , but with Cutcliffe at the helm the offense should be able to move the ball more effectively, and TN should come away with the win.
@South Carolina--W. As has already been pointed out, had an incredibly lucky year with some of their victories. Sidney Rice is their only real offensive threat, and TN's secondary is much improved this year. Look for the Philsbury Doughboy to get some sweet, sweet revenge on Spurrier.
LSU--Loss. With an intact O-line, returning RB, and one of the top QBs in the SEC, LSU will find a way to move the ball against TN's defense. TN will also probably have a hard time running the ball on this defense, and when TN is a one-dimensional
passing team is when they're a losing team. (That bowlgame was an impressive showing)
@Arkansas--Win. McFadden and Jones were perhaps the best freshman HB combo last year, with both averaging 6.3 ypc. But TN's improved secondary will limit their offense, and their suspect defense will be exposed by an improved UT squad.
@Vanderbilt--Win. Without Jay Cutler to distribute the football, this team isn't an upset waiting to happen anymore. Look for the Vols to reestablish their usual late-november reign this year.
Kentucky--Win. Underwhelming as always (except when they had the fat QB), Kentucky was dominated by last year's team. If TN improves like everyone expects this year, then you can go ahead and expect a victory here as well.
So, anywhere from 8-4 to 11-1, but I'm gonna go ahead and say 10-2, with losses to GA and LSU.