PFF Predicts Hooker as the Starter?

[volinthenorth]

There are some interesting reader comments in the 247 article that the OP linked to. I can't read them all because I'm not a subscriber, but the reporter, Patrick Brown, said this:

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Refuting a commenter who said Bailey 'won' spring practice: "Bailey had a better spring game than the other two but I wouldn't say he outperformed them in the 14 other practices/scrimmages." ​

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Explaining the starting order in the O&W game: "They all got reps with the starters in the spring game, if that's what you are asking. Throughout the spring they rotated who was with who but I don't think the order to start the spring game (Hooker 1s, Maurer 2s and Bailey 3s) was pulled out of thin air."​

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Seems like Brown agrees with PFF's choice of Hooker. Does he tend to be a good reporter with good info? I'm not living in Knoxville now so I'm not up on which reporters have inside access or accurate assessments.

 

[Alto1]

I trust CJH will put the best QB out there from day one. He actually knows, unlike his predecessor.

 

[volinthenorth]

Going to the actual source (article published by Pro Football Focus, of which the OP's link is a derivative article by Patrick Brown), here's what they said:


Nothing in there indicates that the folks at PFF gauged Hooker against the other QBs on the roster. So no way of knowing if they know anything. Either by analysis, or by having an inside source on the coaching staff.

And Patrick Brown, the fella who wrote the derivative article that got linked first, he didn't add any analysis or hints of inside sources, either.

Without any of that, their guess of Hooker is roughly as well-founded as yours or mine, I'd say.

I agree that Brown didn't personally add much in the article. However, I disagree that PFF didn't gauge Hooker against the others. It's true that the article didn't mention the others, but how could a list type of article do that (name all the other players they didn't pick for their list)? They can't. Yet their argument was, I thought, quite fact-based. They basically said that Hooker is the Vol QB who is the best with play-action passes, and UCF/Heupel were in the top ten in the country in running play-action last year. So they were saying that Hooker is best at running the exact plays that Heupel likes. I thought PFF was bringing a compelling data-driven insight there. It was the kind of a-ha moment that you get when you actually do a deep dive into the statistics (instead of taking the 'repeat the narrative' approach that most newspaper beat reporters do). VFL 82, I have observed you to be a football-savvy poster. What do you think of PFF's "Hooker excels at play-action passes" argument?

 

[Mccage]

Dave Hooker?

John Lee

 

[sjt18]

Pro Football Focus reveals pick, ranking for Tennessee's starting QB

I just don't see it. To me, he seemed the least impressive in the spring game. I know it was just a scrimmage, but still...

I made the point at the time. Hooker started with the "White" team which appeared to be the 1's. He took no snaps for the Orange. Bailey and Maurer split reps between the Orange and White. Much of Bailey's success came against guys who will be on the scout team this fall.

 

[Wezcoast]

This is the first season I've started without a favorite for QB. Please God just have em hit our receivers where they can catch it, and not the wrong color jerseys, or the dirt .

 

[nomads-11]

JG 2.0???

For the few minutes I watched it yeah. Watched his helmet, it looks left, or right, NEVER, moves from left to right, or vice versa. There was a couple instances whére he zeroed on in one receiver (it's obvious) and when he wasn't open......he took off. I hate to say it, but it took all of 3 minutes to get it. Not to say a person can't learn.....but, hey, it's power 5. If you don't have it by now, don't bother. Just as, at this level......you can NEVER fix accuracy. You either got it or you don't at this point.

 

[nomads-11]

From my understanding about our offense…… most of the reads are pre-snap….. iit was part of the positives of JH…… great teacher of QBs….. simplistic offense….. but also part of his negatives….. QBs had to learn to go through progressions more at the next level…..I believe Locke discussed that during an interview about JH.

IMO, at this level you have to have at least an ability to go through progressions. What I watched with Milton is high school at best, personally it's worse. There is a reason Dobbs can't break through, largely due to reading and accuracy. Just one will kill you at the NFL level, Dobbs probably STILL has both. As in even if he makes the right read.....he still can't deliver. Legs alone at the NFL level does not get you to the SB. Hopefully you've got enough to be QB2 until QB1 comes back.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

IMO, at this level you have to have at least an ability to go through progressions. What I watched with Milton is high school at best, personally it's worse. There is a reason Dobbs can't break through, largely due to reading and accuracy. Just one will kill you at the NFL level, Dobbs probably STILL has both. As in even if he makes the right read.....he still can't deliver. Legs alone at the NFL level does not get you to the SB. Hopefully you've got enough to be QB2 until QB1 comes back.

Basically, then, you're indicting Heupel as having a bad eye for QBs? If you saw it as "high school at best, personally it's worse" and Heupel STILL signed him ...... what should we infer about Heupel's judgement?

I'll infer Heupel is far, far better at judging QB talent than most VN posters.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I agree that Brown didn't personally add much in the article. However, I disagree that PFF didn't gauge Hooker against the others. It's true that the article didn't mention the others, but how could a list type of article do that (name all the other players they didn't pick for their list)? They can't. Yet their argument was, I thought, quite fact-based. They basically said that Hooker is the Vol QB who is the best with play-action passes, and UCF/Heupel were in the top ten in the country in running play-action last year. So they were saying that Hooker is best at running the exact plays that Heupel likes. I thought PFF was bringing a compelling data-driven insight there. It was the kind of a-ha moment that you get when you actually do a deep dive into the statistics (instead of taking the 'repeat the narrative' approach that most newspaper beat reporters do). VFL 82, I have observed you to be a football-savvy poster. What do you think of PFF's "Hooker excels at play-action passes" argument?

Brother, I don't know about being football savvy, I'm just a Vols fan. But thanks, heh.

I don't see any comparison of Hooker to any of our other QBs anywhere in that write-up. The article gives zero indication how well HB, Maurer, or Milton might do with play-action pass plays. For all we know, their stats might actually be better in play-action pass plays. The PFF write-up never even mentions them.

So really, all PFF said was that Hooker is more competent running a kind of play (play-action pass) that Josh Heupel tends to call frequently than he is running other kinds of plays. That only compares Hooker to Hooker. He's better off running plays Josh Heupel calls 45% of the time. The unspoken corollary is that Hooker is worse when running the plays Josh calls the other 55% of the time.

What if one of the other lads is effective running ALL the plays?

Not such a glowing endorsement when you think it through, is it? I didn't see it as one, anyway.

 

[nomads-11]

Basically, then, you're indicting Heupel as having a bad eye for QBs? If you saw it as "high school at best, personally it's worse" and Heupel STILL signed him ...... what should we infer about Heupel's judgement?

I'll infer Heupel is far, far better at judging QB talent than most VN posters.

Given the past coaching hires that many have said are in over their heads I wouldn't be so fast to throw VN posters under the bus. Many are pretty good, many have been right.

Heupel was hired to get the best college QB he can, in college. These tend to be really good between the ears and accurate. The ones who have both succeed at the next level, and this one. Having one is fine in college.....ask Tebow. There's a difference. At this point we're talking progression, mentally, and accuracy. Milton shows neither.

My genuine fear is Heupel is seeing neither in his QB room and is either hoping to compensate it with running ability, or perceived pressure/competition. And he's chosen poorly unless he thinks he can teach the right traits. At this point, I do suggest he's kidding himself. So yeah, I'm questioning his judgement. Why now, why Milton? Makes no sense on film.

 

[JCHateSteve]

Well that doesn't inspire confidence.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Given the past coaching hires that many have said are in over their heads I wouldn't be so fast to throw VN posters under the bus. Many are pretty good, many have been right.

Heupel was hired to get the best college QB he can, in college. These tend to be really good between the ears and accurate. The ones who have both succeed at the next level, and this one. Having one is fine in college.....ask Tebow. There's a difference. At this point we're talking progression, mentally, and accuracy. Milton shows neither.

My genuine fear is Heupel is seeing neither in his QB room and is either hoping to compensate it with running ability, or perceived pressure/competition. And he's chosen poorly unless he thinks he can teach the right traits. At this point, I do suggest he's kidding himself. So yeah, I'm questioning his judgement. Why now, why Milton? Makes no sense on film.

I'll suggest that if Heupel's eye for QB talent is not better than those on VN, then we're truly screwed. His primary claim to fame is his own QB history and his development of Drew Lock at Missouri.

If he lacks the ability to judge QBs, we're in worse shape than we were with "defensive guru" Pruitt. Heupel has never been known for anything else but offense, particularly fast tempo, heavily QB read based offense. It all begins and ends with the QB being smart, able to read the D, and making good quick decisions.

The D is thin. ALL of us know..... EVERYONE knows...... there's simply no doubt, the D is thin, yet Heupel went after Milton when we had 4 QBs in the room. Some say: Milton is a specimen, you have to take him. Seriously? The D is thin but you go for a QB when Maurer, Salter, Bailey and Hooker are already in the room.

Something doesn't add up. I could understand picking up Milton if the D was solid and deep. It's not.

So I'm left with lousy choices: Heupel is, in your words, not capable of discerning a QB with "high school" progression checking ability or Heupel is so focused on offense and a QB that he'll leave the D recruiting out to dry to go fishing for a QB or Heupel is a better judge than us and the QB situation is sketchy enough that we needed Milton.

I'm not claiming to know the solution but just look at what happened: 4 QBs were in the room at the time Milton signed (and 2 were VERY highly touted, Bailey and Salter) and the D is thin, especially in the secondary. I'll agree we've done a damn good job of trying to plug holes but we're still pretty thin.

I just ask: Why? Milton isn't Tua, Trevor or Fields and we had more pressing needs. I don't get it.

 

[IluvdoubleD's]

Coach will put the guy that he wants to out there. I will say that if hooker tries to run on the SEC like that, he won't last long tho. Someone else will be QB in short order.

 

[GoVolunteers]

I'll just ask for opinions: Does a high quality coach transfer in a QB into the team already containing Bailey, Maurer, and Hooker IF they have confidence those guys can get the job done?

Milton has 3 years left, granted, but I really doubt Heupel brought him in "for the future" or as a project QB. If Bailey "has it" and barring injury, Milton will never start. If Hooker "has it" and isn't injured, Milton MIGHT start his 5th year senior season if he's not recruited over.

Bottom line: why sign Milton to sit?

With 4 QBs in the room at the time that Heupel went to the portal AFTER seeing his QBs all spring and the spring game… I am not convinced he pulled in Milton to be another backup. Also, Milton wasn’t sold to transfer to another school to be a backup. I do think it is Milton right now with the other 3 now chasing him.

 

[GetYouSomeofThat]

If Hooker couldn't cut the mustard against weak ACC defenses, he will not be starting in the SEC. JMO

Who was his qb coach during his ACC tenure?

 

[volbeast33]

IMO, at this level you have to have at least an ability to go through progressions. What I watched with Milton is high school at best, personally it's worse. There is a reason Dobbs can't break through, largely due to reading and accuracy. Just one will kill you at the NFL level, Dobbs probably STILL has both. As in even if he makes the right read.....he still can't deliver. Legs alone at the NFL level does not get you to the SB. Hopefully you've got enough to be QB2 until QB1 comes back.

It doesn’t matter if one of our QBs can play in the NFL….. Josh Dobbs would be the best QB in the SEC this season…..From the way I understand our offense….. most of our reads are pre-snap….. we can tell based on how the defense lines up where the one on one match ups are and we expect our guy to win it….. It is why even marginal QBs have still been successful in Heups system.

 

[Teeman]

I'll just ask for opinions: Does a high quality coach transfer in a QB into the team already containing Bailey, Maurer, and Hooker IF they have confidence those guys can get the job done?

Milton has 3 years left, granted, but I really doubt Heupel brought him in "for the future" or as a project QB. If Bailey "has it" and barring injury, Milton will never start. If Hooker "has it" and isn't injured, Milton MIGHT start his 5th year senior season if he's not recruited over.

Bottom line: why sign Milton to sit?

Excellent question. And don't forget Salter was still on the roster when Milton was added. That being said, I don't think CJH signed him with the intent of making him the immediate starter. Milton is going to have to earn it. The thing that got my attention was Milton watched Spring practice before signing. He obviously thinks he has a legitimate shot to start, or he wouldn't have come to UT. I'd love to know who contacted whom about a transfer and what was said. I think it's wide open. It's going to be an interesting Fall camp trying to get all four equal reps AND prepare for the season.

 

[1vol8]

I'll suggest that if Heupel's eye for QB talent is not better than those on VN, then we're truly screwed. His primary claim to fame is his own QB history and his development of Drew Lock at Missouri.

If he lacks the ability to judge QBs, we're in worse shape than we were with "defensive guru" Pruitt. Heupel has never been known for anything else but offense, particularly fast tempo, heavily QB read based offense. It all begins and ends with the QB being smart, able to read the D, and making good quick decisions.

The D is thin. ALL of us know..... EVERYONE knows...... there's simply no doubt, the D is thin, yet Heupel went after Milton when we had 4 QBs in the room. Some say: Milton is a specimen, you have to take him. Seriously? The D is thin but you go for a QB when Maurer, Salter, Bailey and Hooker are already in the room.

Something doesn't add up. I could understand picking up Milton if the D was solid and deep. It's not.

So I'm left with lousy choices: Heupel is, in your words, not capable of discerning a QB with "high school" progression checking ability or Heupel is so focused on offense and a QB that he'll leave the D recruiting out to dry to go fishing for a QB or Heupel is a better judge than us and the QB situation is sketchy enough that we needed Milton.

I'm not claiming to know the solution but just look at what happened: 4 QBs were in the room at the time Milton signed (and 2 were VERY highly touted, Bailey and Salter) and the D is thin, especially in the secondary. I'll agree we've done a damn good job of trying to plug holes but we're still pretty thin.

I just ask: Why? Milton isn't Tua, Trevor or Fields and we had more pressing needs. I don't get it.

I’m a firm believer that Milton was brought in to be the 4th qb. Heupel has been closely involved with each of these qbs and Salter was already showing his ass and had gotten in trouble before Milton was ever brought in. His attitude after being arrested the first time hadn’t improved and I’m sure Heupel had the same feeling most of us had. “This kid isn’t going to last long.” If you think about it from that angle, it makes perfect sense to go after a qb because 3 isn’t enough. And this narrative that “he doesn’t like what he has” can be put to bed.

 

[Jake Tate]

I think it’s Maurer. He’s got the legs and the big arm, but I can see the argument for Bailey.

 

[bigorangepoppa]

So many differing views on here, and each is entitled to their opinion. That being said, we should also remember that Heupel brought in a QB who transferred from UCF. Does that mean he doesn't have faith in any of the QB's already in the room? The more he has, the more competition there will be on the field. I honestly think with all the hype about Hooker, Milton, Bailey, Maurer, these guys are gonna push the competition to another level, and may the best man win. After all that, here is my prediction for who will be the starter; the one the coach thinks gives them the best chance to win. Also, one thing to remember is that one or two could be used in a lot of different ways to make the offense harder to defend. Milton, being the specimen that so many have mentioned, could be brought in as a tight end in some scenarios, Hooker could be used as a wide out, or a running back on some downs, it just gives Heupel the chance to add some wrinkles that could catch a defense by surprise, resulting in some big plays. JMO.

 

[ShoalCreekVol]

Pro Football Focus reveals pick, ranking for Tennessee's starting QB

I just don't see it. To me, he seemed the least impressive in the spring game. I know it was just a scrimmage, but still...

This choice could be based on a tip from the staff, setting the fan bases expectations.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

So many differing views on here, and each is entitled to their opinion. That being said, we should also remember that Heupel brought in a QB who transferred from UCF. Does that mean he doesn't have faith in any of the QB's already in the room?

My impression was, the fella who joined him from UCF was a walk-on there and is a walk-on here, who Heupel intends to use to QB the scout team, and whose goal is to join the coaching ranks (possibly hired by Heupel himself) after he finishes college.

I don't think he is in any way a competitor for playing time.

 

[iluvsmesumdooley]

I don't think he's going to win the starting job, but the spring game eliminated his greatest asset. He's our most dangerous QB as a runner. He can not only extend plays and get first downs with his legs, but is also a threat to take it the distance from nearly anywhere. A QB capable of regularly breaking 30+ yard runs is a nightmare for defenses. In this offense, that doesn't matter as much if he isn't a threat to complete the deep ball though.

In Heupel's system, he is the guy.

 

[BisonVol]

Only way I could see Hooker being the starter is if Bailey and Milton both struggle in fall camp