fryeguy93
Rufus X. Sarsaparilli
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- Dec 11, 2009
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I was looking at upcoming stadium lease deals that are up in coming years.
I think cities like Nashville, Charlotte, Portland and Montreal are going to get used for new stadium deals with current cities or a few will get teams. Also, MLB is in the longest expansion drought in it's expansion history (since 1961) as there's been no expansion since 1998. With shrinking stadiums, television audiences, television deals, etc. I do not think expansion is forthcoming. However, the other owners may look at expansion fees as a money maker for themselves, whether expansion makes sense or not.
There are a few "second teams" in cities that I believe could benefit from getting out of the shadows of more popular teams as the Angels lease expired in 2029. This sounds like a long way away, but you'll start hearing some noise in coming years.
The White Sox lease expires the same year. Despite having a better track record, they will always play second banana to the Cubs. The Sox also play in a Detroit-like Southside Chicago and I don't believe Chicago is a city that can support multiple teams for long.
I believe it would be best for baseball to better avoid multiple teams in the same or nearby markets. New York may be the only exception.
Cubs/White Sox
Dodges/Angels
Nationals/Orioles
are an unsustainable model longterm
The Baltimore Orioles aren't little brother in Baltimore but let's face it, Baltimore is becoming less desirable every day. Everyone loves Camden Yards. They just wish it was in a safer city. Their lease expires this year. But I bet it's renewed. The team did decline a contractual 5-year extension though. The teams was obviously not happy to see the Expos move to DC. I think Peter Angelos is looking for what's popular now and that's redevelopment rights for nearby property.
I believe the move of the Athletics to Vegas is inevitable. Oakland is a dysfunctional mess and the A's represents their last major sports team. I would love to see a team with the history move to Nashville but that's not happening. Their lease expires in 2024 but the world will know sometime this year what will happen.
The Rays will likely stay in Florida as I think Tampa and St. Pete have competing stadium offers. Orlando is a darkhorse.
The Rockies are not going anywhere but their lease expires in 2027
There is early talk the Royals will move closer to downtown and away from Arrowhead and Truman complex. That lease is through 2031 but think the new stadium will be before then.
Hell, look at the entire American League Central Division and see quite a few teams in relatively close proximity. Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Minnesota may not all be able to keep teams.
It's clear the Bay Area has no business having two teams
I love the White Sox but they are in an unsustainable geographic location that's not improving anytime soon. I could see them pack up and move to Nashville and Charlotte and be quite sucesful.
I could see the Angels moving north to Portland or even Vancouver. Portland is not all that business friendly right now but Portland interests are pushing harder for a team than anyone right now.
The Orioles are staying but would they be less popular in Montreal, Nashville or Charlotte?
Texas could support a third team but I the Astros or Rangers would block any move to San Antonio or Austin.
Here's an interesting web site with expansion betting odds:
Next MLB Expansion City Odds: Nashville & Charlotte Among Contenders
Nashville is the odds on favorite expansion but not relocation.
I think cities like Nashville, Charlotte, Portland and Montreal are going to get used for new stadium deals with current cities or a few will get teams. Also, MLB is in the longest expansion drought in it's expansion history (since 1961) as there's been no expansion since 1998. With shrinking stadiums, television audiences, television deals, etc. I do not think expansion is forthcoming. However, the other owners may look at expansion fees as a money maker for themselves, whether expansion makes sense or not.
There are a few "second teams" in cities that I believe could benefit from getting out of the shadows of more popular teams as the Angels lease expired in 2029. This sounds like a long way away, but you'll start hearing some noise in coming years.
The White Sox lease expires the same year. Despite having a better track record, they will always play second banana to the Cubs. The Sox also play in a Detroit-like Southside Chicago and I don't believe Chicago is a city that can support multiple teams for long.
I believe it would be best for baseball to better avoid multiple teams in the same or nearby markets. New York may be the only exception.
Cubs/White Sox
Dodges/Angels
Nationals/Orioles
are an unsustainable model longterm
The Baltimore Orioles aren't little brother in Baltimore but let's face it, Baltimore is becoming less desirable every day. Everyone loves Camden Yards. They just wish it was in a safer city. Their lease expires this year. But I bet it's renewed. The team did decline a contractual 5-year extension though. The teams was obviously not happy to see the Expos move to DC. I think Peter Angelos is looking for what's popular now and that's redevelopment rights for nearby property.
I believe the move of the Athletics to Vegas is inevitable. Oakland is a dysfunctional mess and the A's represents their last major sports team. I would love to see a team with the history move to Nashville but that's not happening. Their lease expires in 2024 but the world will know sometime this year what will happen.
The Rays will likely stay in Florida as I think Tampa and St. Pete have competing stadium offers. Orlando is a darkhorse.
The Rockies are not going anywhere but their lease expires in 2027
There is early talk the Royals will move closer to downtown and away from Arrowhead and Truman complex. That lease is through 2031 but think the new stadium will be before then.
Hell, look at the entire American League Central Division and see quite a few teams in relatively close proximity. Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Minnesota may not all be able to keep teams.
It's clear the Bay Area has no business having two teams
I love the White Sox but they are in an unsustainable geographic location that's not improving anytime soon. I could see them pack up and move to Nashville and Charlotte and be quite sucesful.
I could see the Angels moving north to Portland or even Vancouver. Portland is not all that business friendly right now but Portland interests are pushing harder for a team than anyone right now.
The Orioles are staying but would they be less popular in Montreal, Nashville or Charlotte?
Texas could support a third team but I the Astros or Rangers would block any move to San Antonio or Austin.
Here's an interesting web site with expansion betting odds:
Next MLB Expansion City Odds: Nashville & Charlotte Among Contenders
Nashville is the odds on favorite expansion but not relocation.
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