66volfan
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Yeah, but that cuts both ways. Say you lose two that you're favored in, then win two that you're not favored in.
I don't remotely believe the season will play out so that favorites always win...but I believe that if you're favored in 9 out of 12 games, it would be silly to conclude that you'll end up 12-0 ... or 7-5.
Like I said, not seeing the bookies' logic here.
The betting line is a reflection of the gambler's perspective of the matchup. It moves with the money and is started at that point to get even money on each side. The loser pays a percentage on top of their bet. That is the money bookies are playing for.