Official Seed List Watch Party Thread

[bleedingTNorange]

Also is there a big difference between a 1 and a 2? I feel like both give you about an equal shot to get to the S16 but I believe I read somewhere that statically 1 seeds get farther in the tourney.

1’s make the S16 85% of the time
2’s make the S16 63% of the time

BracketOdds - How Far Does Each Seed Advance?

 

[Willy14]

1’s make the S16 85% of the time
2’s make the S16 63% of the time

BracketOdds - How Far Does Each Seed Advance?

Interesting, do you think that is due to the actual seed being a 1 and playing an 8/9 instead of playing a 7/10 or is it because they are better overall teams and there is a gap talent wise between 1 and 2 seeds? Genuine question because I’m not sure

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Interesting, do you think that is due to the actual seed being a 1 and playing an 8/9 instead of playing a 7/10 or is it because they are better overall teams and there is a gap talent wise between 1 and 2 seeds? Genuine question because I’m not sure

Both

 

[Willy14]

Both

NCCAT draw is always weird. Seems like you can get a team that is a 7/10 seed because they were at 4/5 seed and are on a downward spiral and lost 4 of there last 6 or you can get a 7/10 seed that was a bubble team and have won there past 6 in a row and are on fire.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

NCCAT draw is always weird. Seems like you can get a team that is a 7/10 seed because they were at 4/5 seed and are on a downward spiral and lost 4 of there last 6 or you can get a 7/10 seed that was a bubble team and have won there past 6 in a row and are on fire.

Last year Michigan was a low seed because they underachieved during the season. They were a far better team than their seed represented. Unfortunately TN drew them AND they were a bad matchup with the bigger goon in the paint that could also drain shots from the perimeter.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Tonight game:
9pm: Texas vs. Kansas

Another of those double games, but again I think going with the home team is the move, we need both teams to continue stacking losses and right now Texas has 1 less loss than Kansas.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Tonight game:
9pm: Texas vs. Kansas

Another of those double games, but again I think going with the home team is the move, we need both teams to continue stacking losses and right now Texas has 1 less loss than Kansas.

Kansas also plays at Oklahoma this weekend, which is a chance for them to pick up a loss. Texas has a home game against WVU.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Kansas also plays at Oklahoma this weekend, which is a chance for them to pick up a loss. Texas has a home game against WVU.

Yea, and Kansas travels to Texas later in the year as well.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Kansas is going to win. Pretty solid outcome for us. Go 2-0 this week and you’re back in the AP Top 5.

 

[BallerVolFan]

Vanderbilt W
Missouri W
Bama W/L
Kentucky W/L (Believe we split Bama and UK)
A&M W
South Car W
Arkansas W
Auburn L

Going 6-2 would satisfy me and surely would have us at the worst on the 2 seed line.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Yesterdays update which obviously doesn’t include tonight’s Kansas win over Texas, little surprised Kansas moved to a 1 over Arizona…

1. Purdue
2. Alabama
3. Houston
4. Kansas
———————
5. Arizona
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. UCLA
———————
9. Baylor
10. Iowa State
11. Xavier
12. Virginia
———————
13. Kansas State
14. Marquette
15. Gonzaga
16. TCU
———————
17. Connecticut
18. St. Mary’s
19. Indiana
20. Rutgers

 

[cncchris33]

Yesterdays update which obviously doesn’t include tonight’s Kansas win over Texas, little surprised Kansas moved to a 1 over Arizona…

1. Purdue
2. Alabama
3. Houston
4. Kansas
———————
5. Arizona
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. UCLA
———————
9. Baylor
10. Iowa State
11. Xavier
12. Virginia
———————
13. Kansas State
14. Marquette
15. Gonzaga
16. TCU
———————
17. Connecticut
18. St. Mary’s
19. Indiana
20. Rutgers

I’m not really all that surprised. That was KU’s 10th Q1 win to Arizona’s six, and KU has zero losses outside of Q1 while Arizona has a Q3 loss. Kansas just has the better résumé and the Big12 is going to get the benefit of doubt, this year, because they are far and away the best conference.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I’m not really all that surprised. That was KU’s 10th Q1 win to Arizona’s six, and KU has zero losses outside of Q1 while Arizona has a Q3 loss. Kansas just has the better résumé and the Big12 is going to get the benefit of doubt, this year, because they are far and away the best conference.

I think it’s going to be difficult for Tennessee to get that final 1-seed. We either need Alabama to free fall a bit, like Auburn last year, or Tennessee has to go 7-1 at the worst and get a 2-3 game lead in the “loss” column. Just feels like the strength of the Big 12 is going to put them in position to get that final spot even if they have 7 losses because of the strength of the conference.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I’m not really all that surprised. That was KU’s 10th Q1 win to Arizona’s six, and KU has zero losses outside of Q1 while Arizona has a Q3 loss. Kansas just has the better résumé and the Big12 is going to get the benefit of doubt, this year, because they are far and away the best conference.

This was before their win last night, not surprising with the win but would’ve thought Arizona ahead of them going into last night. Not a huge deal just kinda what I expected, they moved up after a 15pt loss to Iowa State.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I think it’s going to be difficult for Tennessee to get that final 1-seed. We either need Alabama to free fall a bit, like Auburn last year, or Tennessee has to go 7-1 at the worst and get a 2-3 game lead in the “loss” column. Just feels like the strength of the Big 12 is going to put them in position to get that final spot even if they have 7 losses because of the strength of the conference.

The quadrants will even out quite a bit, if we win 6-2/7-1 down the stretch our resume will be right there with them assuming they drop another 2-3.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Using current seed list and listing barttorviks projected record and Q1&Q2 combined records…

1. Purdue: 27-4/17-4
2. Alabama: 26-5/15-5
3. Houston: 28-3/13-1
4. Kansas: 23-8/17-8
———————
5. Arizona: 26-5/14-3
6. Texas: 23-8/13-8
7. Tennessee: 25-6/14-5
8. UCLA: 26-5/12-5
———————
9. Baylor: 21-10/14-9
10. Iowa State: 20-10/13-9
11. Xavier: 24-7/13-7
12. Virginia: 23-6/10-5
———————
13. Kansas State: 22-9/11-9
14. Marquette: 24-7/10-6
15. Gonzaga: 25-6/9-5
16. TCU: 21-10/12-9
———————
17. Connecticut: 23-8/11-7
18. St. Mary’s: 26-5/9-2
19. Indiana: 20-11/9-11
20. Rutgers: 21-10/10-9

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Tonight’s games:
6:30pm: Marquette vs. UCONN
6:30pm: Rutgers vs. Indiana
9:00pm: NC State vs. Virginia
9:00pm: TCU vs. Kansas State

All 3 of the home games you could make a case to flip, but they’re teams really close to each other on 4-5 seed lines so going with home team.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Tonight’s games:
7:00pm: Iowa State vs. West Virginia
8:00pm: Tulsa vs. Houston
9:00pm: Florida vs. Alabama
9:00pm: Oklahoma vs. Baylor

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Assuming we go 5-3 or better it’s hard to not see the floor as a 3 seed, obviously a lot can happen, but imo without taking conference tournaments into account…

8-0: 1 seed
7-1: 1 seed
6-2: 1 seed 75%/2 seed 25%
5-3: 2 seed 75%/3 seed 25%

Let’s not talk about anything worse.

 

[Willy14]

Assuming we go 5-3 or better it’s hard to not see the floor as a 3 seed, obviously a lot can happen, but imo without taking conference tournaments into account…

8-0: 1 seed
7-1: 1 seed
6-2: 1 seed 75%/2 seed 25%
5-3: 2 seed 75%/3 seed 25%

Let’s not talk about anything worse.

gotta think that surely we can get a 2 seed this year. Seems to be a big log game between the top 7 teams and then there is UCLA at 8 and then a nice drop off there to the 9-12. Don't think we will drop down to that 9-12 category with Baylor, Iowa State, Xavier, and Virginia

 

[bleedingTNorange]

St. Mary’s losing to Loyola Marymount and Xavier losing to Butler were 2 nice results that went our way in recent days

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

So we need Missouri to lose tonight right

 

[wtmvol]

So we need Missouri to lose tonight right

Yes, that would be helpful.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Seed list update 2/10…

1. Purdue
2. Alabama
3. Houston
4. Kansas
———————
5. Arizona
6. Texas
7. UCLA
8. Tennessee
———————
9. Baylor
10. Xavier
11. Virginia
12. Kansas State
———————
13. Iowa State
14. Marquette
15. Connecticut
16. Gonzaga

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Todays games:
12pm: West Virginia vs. Texas
12pm: Marquette vs. Georgetown
1pm: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
2pm: Alabama vs. Auburn
2pm: Connecticut vs. Creighton
4pm: Duke vs. Virginia
4pm: Baylor vs. TCU
6pm: Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
7pm: Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
8pm: Arizona vs. Stanford
10pm: UCLA vs. Oregon
10pm: BYU vs. Gonzaga