to get a gauge on how sumlin may do at UT, look at his record vs the east and bama.
overall, while at a&m, he was 9-3 against the east (played uf, ut, mz, sc, vandy) and 1-5 vs bama.
that's 10-8 and 56%.
bout the same as mullin was vs the east and bama.
not sure he'd be worth what we'd have to pay him.
not sure how i feel about this truthfully.
EDIT: 3-3 vs Mullen
So that's an interesting tack you take, Preacher, and a useful approach.
But to get the math right, you have to either shrink the Bama contests to fit the SEC-East record, or expand the East record to fit the number of Bama games. You have six years' worth of Bama results (from a Vols perspective), but only two years' worth of East games (at 6 games/year).
So let's extrapolate from his actual East game results to equal the 6 seasons' worth of playing Bama (1-5).
6 seasons of the East = 36 games. Sumlin's 9-3 actual record against the East therefore expands to 27-9 over six seasons.
Add 27-9 (vs East) to 1-5 (vs Bama) and you get a six-season record of 28-14.
But we're still missing some games--remember, that 8th SEC game each year, against a rotating West team. Well, let's just average out Sumlin's W-L record vs everyone else in the West, and reduce it to fit 6 games.
Turns out Kevin went 15-15 against all teams in the West not named Bama in those six years. So we'll reduce that to 3-3 to fit our model.
And so the prediction of how Sumlin would do commanding a team in the SEC East comes down to 31-17 (64.6% win rate).
In other words, we could expect him to go roughly 5-3 each year in SEC play. 9-3 overall, unless we lose to our ooc P5 opponent, then 8-4.