btw, wasn't this supposed to be another banner year for hurricanes? Five named storms so far and none of them have even approached hurricane strength.
Are you just throwing that out there, or do you have any data to support the point?
First, while it seems fairly straightforward to conclude that higher temperatures equal higher ocean temperatures and that higher ocean temperatures equal more energy for hurricanes, the true relationship is a matter of ongoing study. Even Kerry Emanuel, who famously published a paper on the link between global warming and increased hurricanes just before Hurricane Katrina has since published that potential correlation is difficult to pin down. A common thought is that hurricane intensity may increase, but frequency is a big uncertainty.
Second, and more importantly.....this year was forecast with a 65% probability to be an above normal year and a 25% probability to be an average year with respect to tropical activity. The climate prediction center forecast (produced in May) was:
12-18 Named Storms,
6-10 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes
So far, we have had 5 named storms and 0 hurricanes. If you look at the
historical record (Table 1) you will see that as of August 1st, the historical average for named storms is two and hurricanes is 0. By August 13th, the historical average would be 3 named storms and 1 hurricane, but 0 major hurricanes. In other words, as of August 1st, we were 3 named storms ahead of an average year (and at 0 hurricanes, which is still average).
The most active time for Atlantic hurricanes is from late August through September. The likelihood of a major hurricane coming anytime before late August (or a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane before early-to-mid-August) is very small. This year may end up being below normal in tropical activity - but the data do not support making such an assertion at this point. The data support that this is an above-normal year so far.
