Official Global Warming thread (merged)

That's what the scientific community was saying then, that we were fixing to have another ice age. Today's version is now global warming. They had all of their information lined up too and were sure. You see, some of us have lived through these "sure things" before.
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Negative. That is what the media was saying based on a very small percentage of scientists. That was not what was the prevailing opinion of scientists in the 70s.

So, you did not live through a scientific "sure thing," you were hoodwinked by the media and, in the face of evidence to the contrary, still continue to state otherwise.

So, like I said, did you believe everything the media stated in the 70s?
 
That's what the scientific community was saying then, that we were fixing to have another ice age. Today's version is now global warming. They had all of their information lined up too and were sure. You see, some of us have lived through these "sure things" before.
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No. The majority of scientists did not say that. Anyone can go back and look at the published journals at the time and see that. What you had was a few media outlets running with a tabloid-quality story.

That's completely different from what is going on today.
 
That's a big shortcoming of sediments over the others. What you do is date material at intervals within the sediment, construct a chronology of depth to age, and look for anomalies. There is always going to be some mixing, bioturbation, etc. The idea is that most of it will average out on the longscale. Also, with sediments you usually are looking at a more coarse resolution of time. In other words, you are looking at "century" trends to rather than annual ones. This is also because there is a lag between vegetation and favorable conditions (trees have to grow, flourish, etc. before they start putting out pollen, and they don't just disappear or move right when conditions change), and thus a lag in what is in the sediments.
There are some sediments that have annual depositional patterns that make it possible to date to an annual basis, but even still they can't be exactly "placed in time." In other words, you can know they are annual, but you can't say they are 1377 until 1584 or something. But you can know they are roughly in that range.

Knowing things at a century or decadal level is good enough though, when you are talking about 1,000's of years ago. Doesn't really matter if it was a Tuesday or Wednesday, you know?

So you are saying that you are taking 100 year intervals? Is that correct? If that is correct does it compensate for cycles in weather? Hypothetical, If every 100 years the weather goes through a cycle. Let's say hot for 50 years, then colder for the next 50. How can you figure out if your testing samples from the same part of a cycle? You know, you test the hot part each time.
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Negative. That is what the media was saying based on a very small percentage of scientists. That was not what was the prevailing opinion of scientists in the 70s.

So, you did not live through a scientific "sure thing," you were hoodwinked by the media and, in the face of evidence to the contrary, still continue to state otherwise.

So, like I said, did you believe everything the media stated in the 70s?

No, just like I don't believe everything the media says now about GW! And you are positive we aren't being hoodwinked now? Contrary to what's being taught now, ice age was a pretty big deal. The media wasn't quite as biased then as now!
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So you are saying that you are taking 100 year intervals? Is that correct? If that is correct does it compensate for cycles in weather? Hypothetical, If every 100 years the weather goes through a cycle. Let's say hot for 50 years, then colder for the next 50. How can you figure out if your testing samples from the same part of a cycle? You know, you test the hot part each time.
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I'm saying I'm taking 1 cm or 10 cm intervals in the sediment, and it is what it is. It won't all be equal spans of time. Usually towards the top it's short amounts of time between increments, then gets longer.

Sediment cores that aren't laminated (have annual depositional patterns) aren't sensitive to ever pick up cycles of 10 or 50 years. Even then, the only proxies that would, would be oxygen isotopes or something like that. Sediment cores aren't really used to look for that level of detail. They are more useful on century or more scales.

But you highlight a significant reason to compare multiple different records, as each has it's own weaknesses and biases.
 
No, just like I don't believe everything the media says now about GW! And you are positive we aren't being hoodwinked now? Contrary to what's being taught now, ice age was a pretty big deal. The media wasn't quite as biased then as now!
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Here is your disconnect. The ice age opinion in the 70s was few scientists and lots of media. Today, it is lots of scientists and lots of media, and you don't believe it, because of your living bias.

Do you see the disconnect in regards to scientific opinion differences between then and now?
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So by taking 1cm and 10cm samples you can accurately predict what the weather was like for a 100 year time period? How do tell just how hot or cold it was by a 1cm piece of sediment?
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Here is your disconnect. The ice age opinion in the 70s was few scientists and lots of media. Today, it is lots of scientists and lots of media, and you don't believe it, because of your living bias.

Do you see the disconnect in regards to scientific opinion differences between then and now?
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No, I don't think you understand. I just ran a google search and looked at what is out there today. Did you know that the ice age was first floated around by scientists from NASA in 1971? I guess those guys were a bunch of quacks! For it to be all media, the theory was out there for 5-6 years. Revisionist history forgets alot of details sometimes! Do you know where Franklin was?
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So by taking 1cm and 10cm samples you can accurately predict what the weather was like for a 100 year time period? How do tell just how hot or cold it was by a 1cm piece of sediment?
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I can't. I can't tell the weather at all. I can tell the climate. I can tell you that 10,000 years ago in East Tennessee, Spruce and Fir forests dominated the landscape. I can tell you that wildfires occasionally occurred, and it was colder and drier than today. I can then tell you the progression of change from then until our current climate as far as vegetation and fire frequency change. Vegetation tells the story. As sure as the plants of Maine reflect a cold and moist climate and the plants of Florida tell of a warm and moist climate. They're the ultimate gauge of weather and climate. Think about how some plants won't grow in certain places, and others take off like crazy.

Of course, diatoms can be even more specific, as each type is VERY particular about what sort of water temperature, seasonality, salinity, turbidity, etc. it needs to thrive. I'm making inferences from biological remains.

Now, trees and ice cores can tell you more the sort of information your talking about.
 
No, I don't think you understand. I just ran a google search and looked at what is out there today. Did you know that the ice age was first floated around by scientists from NASA in 1971? I guess those guys were a bunch of quacks! For it to be all media, the theory was out there for 5-6 years. Revisionist history forgets alot of details sometimes! Do you know where Franklin was?
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And you realize that scientific journals archive their magazines, right?

All one has to do is go back and look at articles pertaining to climate change research, look at the conclusion, and keep a tally of those that said it was cooling, those that said it was warming and other. And guess what? Someone did.

Only 10% stated it was cooling. How is that revisionst history and not setting the record straight for those that were hoodwinked?
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As a kid growing up in middle Tennessee, I used to find fossils of various sea life,flora and fauna. I always enjoyed looking at those because they were some of the same fossils that I saw in books. You didn't have to dig hardly at all. If you found a contruction site they were everywhere.(house foundations) . So from basically 2-3 feet I could tell the flora from the area. What should I have learned from that?
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Well float we haven't got to the end of GW either, have we? The books not finished yet!
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That where you were used to be a sea. From the species, you could see that it was a warm tropical sea. If you used some dating techniques, you could know when.

This is a little different though, because the things I'm looking at

1. Have a modern analog that tells us exactly what the conditions favorable for them would have been

2. Are counted by millions as they are microscopic, and various statistical methods are used to get an accurate representation of the over-all sample.


You realize that someone could tell where you live to a very close degree by just looking at the microscopic things on your shoe?
 
I know that 98 % of climate scientists agree with me. Statistically, that says a lot. I know the ones that don't agree with me wear the nicest suits at meetings and get truckloads of funding from corporate interests. That's what I know.
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The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.

Marcus Aurelius

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There are people who believe vaccines cause autism. Many people aren't rational, or don't know what they are talking about. They think if it's ever cold outside anywhere, that it is evidence against global climate change. It's just ignorance.

And on the flipside, if there is ever a tragic hurricane or volcano eruption, it is evidence for AGW.
 
They're reaching on some connections here. Yes, there is potential for serious eruptions, but I don't think ice cover is that much of a factor. I am certainly skeptical of claims of increased volcanic activity during warmer climate. Increased volcanic activity typically cools climate.

I remember seeing a show on the Discovery channel years ago that stated the opposite, that pressure created by ice caps increased the frequency and scale of eruptions in the past, that it was a driver for the thawing during previous ice ages.

TIFWIW, theories come and go, sometimes things can sound right but more extensive research along with new discovery can dispell just about any theory at any time.
 
And on the flipside, if there is ever a tragic hurricane or volcano eruption, it is evidence for AGW.

or earthquake, or a bunch of redwing blackbirds show up dead in Arkansas, or a Ben Affleck movie flops at the box office...
 

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