Official Bracket Watch Thread

#76
#76
bleedingTNorange said:
Maybe you missed this post, you are acting as if other bubble teams don’t have similar “bad losses” and also a similar Q1 and/or Q2 record...
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Let me ask this though another way...so if 17 wins get us in the conversation then what 2 games left on our schedule has the most impact. Which 2 games would you want to win? IMO I don't see any combination of 2 wins that would have more of an impact then the 3 losses down the stretch. GBO!
 
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#77
#77
bleedingTNorange said:
Will use BracketMatrix as I have in the past, for those unfamiliar with their work, they take submissions of 100-120 bracketologists and combine those results and then release their average from those.

This is their most current update: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

This far out from selection Sunday I will start by posting bubble teams as those they have as 9 seeds or lower, then the cut line, and then teams in consideration below that cut line.

In parentheses I will also include the NET rankings as that has become a major tool for the committee to use.

Games through 2/17/20...

St. Mary’s (36)
Oklahoma (48)
Rhode Island (32)
Xavier (39)
Florida (35)
Southern Cal (47)
Wichita State (43)
Arizona State (49)
Virginia (54)
Purdue (33)
Cincinnati (50)
Georgetown (45)
Indiana (63)
Utah State (41)
—————————————
Richmond (46)
Arkansas (51)
Stanford (37)
Mississippi State (53)
Alabama (38)
North Carolina State (60)
Minnesota (44)
VCU (52)
Providence (58)
Memphis (59)



Currently: Tennessee (65)
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I will say I like what you are doing with this thread...but 17 wins gets us a trip to the NIT. GBO!
 
#78
#78
AirForceVol74 said:
Let me ask this though another way...so if 17 wins get us in the conversation then what 2 games left on our schedule has the most impact. Which 2 games would you want to win? IMO I don't see any combination of 2 wins that would have more of an impact then the 3 losses down the stretch. GBO!
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At Kentucky and at Auburn
Would make it interesting but I doubt would be enough
 
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#79
#79
I think we have a better chance to win at Rupp than we do at Auburn. They have not lost a home game this year and don't miss their 3s at home. Kentucky has looked beatable at home their last few.
 
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#80
#80
Kicker82 said:
I think we have a better chance to win at Rupp than we do at Auburn. They have not lost a home game this year and don't miss their 3s at home. Kentucky has looked beatable at home their last few.
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agree. Although one extra day helps us this week
 
#81
#81
BruinVol said:
At Kentucky and at Auburn
Would make it interesting but I doubt would be enough
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Which I agree with you...these are probably the 2 best games to win down the stretch if we only win 2, but that means we would lose to Auburn at home, Florida at home and Arkansas on the road. No 2 games left on the schedule really would put us in the tourney...which is my original point today that we need to go at least 3-2 down the stretch to have a chance. GBO!
 
#82
#82
AirForceVol74 said:
Which I agree with you...these are probably the 2 best games to win down the stretch if we only win 2, but that means we would lose to Auburn at home, Florida at home and Arkansas on the road. No 2 games left on the schedule really would put us in the tourney...which is my original point today that we need to go at least 3-2 down the stretch to have a chance. GBO!
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2-3 gives us very little shot unless it’s those two games and then it’s 25% imo

3-2 gives us a better than 50/50 shot imo
 
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#83
#83
BigOrangeMojo said:
Not that it's fair, but UF as a multi-time national champion gets the benefit of the doubt that we wouldnt get. Probably didnt hurt having SEC AD on the selection committee either.

They also had an extra win the SECT that my scenario above didnt entail for us. If we go 2--1 in the SECT with a win over #3 seed, we'd have good chance to get in at 19-15
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So by definition then we very much would be in the conversation if we ended the year at 17-14, which is what you adamantly disagreed with early on.
 
#84
#84
BruinVol said:
I think the schedule sets up perfectly for playing into the bracket.
the way ark is playing that’s a game we should win.

Auburn isn’t playing great either and Florida has under achieved.

if we can’t win those 3 we don’t deserve to make it anyway
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Very true.
 
#85
#85
AirForceVol74 said:
Let me ask this though another way...so if 17 wins get us in the conversation then what 2 games left on our schedule has the most impact. Which 2 games would you want to win? IMO I don't see any combination of 2 wins that would have more of an impact then the 3 losses down the stretch. GBO!
Click to expand...

Well the 3 losses are likely Q1, and you don’t get punished for those, so....

I think if being able to pick you probably take beating Auburn at home and Florida at home, losing the 3 road games, but I can see a case for losing to Auburn at home for a win at Kentucky.
 
#87
#87
BruinVol said:
2-3 gives us very little shot unless it’s those two games and then it’s 25% imo

3-2 gives us a better than 50/50 shot imo
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If you have a 25% chance then you are very much in the discussion, that’s all my point was...at that point it will come down to what the committee is favoring this year, what other bubble teams do, and also the conference tourneys.
 
#88
#88
bleedingTNorange said:
If you have a 25% chance then you are very much in the discussion, that’s all my point was...at that point it will come down to what the committee is favoring this year, what other bubble teams do, and also the conference tourneys.
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Just to be clear the 25% opinion was based on winning at Auburn and Kentucky

Any other combination of 2-3 is way below that unless we were to win 2-3 games in Nashville
 
#89
#89
BruinVol said:
Just to be clear the 25% opinion was based on winning at Auburn and Kentucky

Any other combination of 2-3 is way below that unless we were to win 2-3 games in Nashville
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I think the home losses in that other scenario may hurt...home wins against Auburn (Q1), Florida (Q2), and then losses on the road to Arkansas (Q1), UK (Q1) and Auburn (Q1) would probably be the best “resume booster”.
 
#90
#90
bleedingTNorange said:
I think the home losses in that other scenario may hurt...home wins against Auburn (Q1), Florida (Q2), and then losses on the road to Arkansas (Q1), UK (Q1) and Auburn (Q1) would probably be the best “resume booster”.
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We need Q1 wins

And I am worried that Auburn at home ends up being one. They may lose tonight if they don’t watch it
 
#91
#91
PLus I am sure the NET ranking gives more pts for a road win than a home win. I know rpi did
 
#92
#92
BruinVol said:
We need Q1 wins

And I am worried that Auburn at home ends up being one. They may lose tonight if they don’t watch it
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Florida could play their way into a Q1 win also though, so many variables at this point...nobody can say definitively 17-14 has us out, just the same way I won’t say it has us in. I think it definitely has us in the discussion but at that point you’re at the liberty of other things outside your control, 18-13 probably has you in a pretty good spot.
 
#94
#94
bleedingTNorange said:
Florida could play their way into a Q1 win also though, so many variables at this point...nobody can say definitively 17-14 has us out, just the same way I won’t say it has us in. I think it definitely has us in the discussion but at that point you’re at the liberty of other things outside your control, 18-13 probably has you in a pretty good spot.
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the only shot florida has at being a Q1 is if they can beat us imo
 
#95
#95
The selection committee will have their say. I will see what they have to say. As we know, there is no no rhyme or reason to their selections.
 
#98
#98
bleedingTNorange said:
So by definition then we very much would be in the conversation if we ended the year at 17-14, which is what you adamantly disagreed with early on.
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I said earlier the only way we'd have a chance to get in at 17-14 is a deep SECT run and beating a top end NCAA team. That's essentially what I described there. If we go 17-14 and go 1-1 in the SECT without beating a top half of the bracket NCAA team all year, we have no chance.

To be truthful, the UF analogy from last year made me waver just a bit but we won't get the same benefit of the doubt since they've had more high end success, their SOS will still be a little better than ours, and their top end wins will still be better than ours. I have taken your point about their Q3 losses last year but they got a lot more benefit beating LSU twice than demerit from losing the Q3 games. (There's 30 years of NCAA history that shows you get more credit for great wins than demerits for an equally bad loss).
 
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#100
#100
bleedingTNorange said:
UK twice, LSU and Georgia? They’re currently 35, need to improve 5 spots, seems pretty plausible they could do that with a few wins.
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harder to be move up where there are. The Georgia game will drop them just like Vandy did us and then losing to us would as well. LSU isn’t as good now either

I guess it’s possible but I’d bet a **** load of money florida isnt a Q1 win for us
 
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