Official Bracket Watch Thread

#27
#27
BruinVol said:
Good thing computers don’t decide games. I’d give us just under 50/50 to win 2. Arkansas is just so bad right now we might pull it off
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Even if you put Arkansas as a 50/50 game that would still only give us a 33% chance to win 2.
 
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#28
#28
AirForceVol74 said:
We will defiantly have opportunities in our final 5 games but at least need to go 3-2 to be in any conversation. That puts us at 18-13 with some nice wins down the stretch. GBO!
Click to expand...

I still think 17-14(9-9) has us in the conversation, at that point it depends on what surrounding teams do as well but if you look at those records I posted it’s quite plausible.
 
#32
#32
bleedingTNorange said:
I still think 17-14(9-9) has us in the conversation, at that point it depends on what surrounding teams do as well but if you look at those records I posted it’s quite plausible.
Click to expand...

We have no chance at 17-14 unless we make a SEC Finals run (especially if the two regular season wins are Arky and UF). I think we need to get to 18-13 and win at least 1 in SECT. Computer numbers really do not like us this year.
 
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#34
#34
BruinVol said:
Im curious if this stands true over the next 5 games


I expect the computer numbers to go up even if we lost 3-4 of those 5 games
Click to expand...

The problem is Washington sucks, Memphis is imploding, Wisky, Cincy, and VCU have all underperformed expectations. I dont see the computer numbers significantly improving going 2-3.
 
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#35
#35
BigOrangeMojo said:
The problem is Washington sucks, Memphis is imploding, Wisky, Cincy, and VCU have all underperformed expectations. I dont see the computer numbers significantly improving going 2-3.
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We play 4 more games against top 35 NET teams. Our numbers will get better, but winning would obviously help. The bubble is really soft this year. To me, it appears that the A10 and West Coast Conference are the only midmajors with multiple bids (didn't count American). The Big 12 is not as strong either. We should be rewarded for playing a tough OOC schedule.
 
#36
#36
BigOrangeMojo said:
We have no chance at 17-14 unless we make a SEC Finals run (especially if the two regular season wins are Arky and UF). I think we need to get to 18-13 and win at least 1 in SECT. Computer numbers really do not like us this year.
Click to expand...

I disagree, and past results and current projections agree with my opinion...our computer numbers are going to change a lot win or lose given the quality of opponents upcoming.
 
#37
#37
bleedingTNorange said:
I disagree, and past results and current projections agree with my opinion...our computer numbers are going to change a lot win or lose given the quality of opponents upcoming.
Click to expand...


I agree with you but it’s possible we inflating how much they are going to change. Beating auburn would hurt them and may not even be a Q1 win at home
 
#38
#38
golfballs said:
Even if you put Arkansas as a 50/50 game that would still only give us a 33% chance to win 2.
Click to expand...

Sorry to be that guy.

Going off Kenpom, the odds of winning at least 2 from the next 3 are:
(0.72 * 0.33 * 0.53) + //lose first game and then win next two
(0.28 * 0.33) + //win first game, win second game
(0.28 * 0.67 * 0.53) //win first game, lose second game, win third game =
0.3178

If we set Arkansas to be 50-50 we get the following:
(0.72 * 0.5 * 0.53) + //lose first, win next two
(0.28 * 0.5) + //win first two
(0.28 * 0.5 * 0.53) //win first, lose second, win third =
0.4050 (Note: Fixed third line and result based off golfballs correction, see below.)

I think that math checks out and you can represent it as a simple markov chain. Anyways, gonna go back to lurking now.
 
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#39
#39
BigOrangeMojo said:
The problem is Washington sucks, Memphis is imploding, Wisky, Cincy, and VCU have all underperformed expectations. I dont see the computer numbers significantly improving going 2-3.
Click to expand...

We have 5 Q1 games upcoming to close out the year, we are a combined 6-10 in Q1&Q2 games so far this year.

Other bubble teams...

Oklahoma 9-10
Purdue 7-11
Georgetown 9-10
Indiana 6-9
—————————————
Arkansas 4-10
Stanford 4-8
Mississippi State 5-7
Alabama 6-10
North Carolina State 7-6
Minnesota 6-12
 
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#40
#40
BruinVol said:
I agree with you but it’s possible we inflating how much they are going to change. Beating auburn would hurt them and may not even be a Q1 win at home
Click to expand...
Possible...the biggest thing is stacking Q1 & Q2 games up, that’s what the committee looks at most is combined record in those games and we will be adding 5 of those...possibly all Q1.
 
#41
#41
bleedingTNorange said:
I still think 17-14(9-9) has us in the conversation, at that point it depends on what surrounding teams do as well but if you look at those records I posted it’s quite plausible.
Click to expand...
I understand what you are saying with the 17 wins but we have blown some games that we really needed in the win column...@Georgia, TAMU, and @South Carolina are bad losses that if we wanted in the tourney we needed to win. I like this website, it breaks downs chances of making tourney by if we win this many games..currently if we end up with 17 wins then we have 5.5% chance to make the tourney and that takes into consideration all of the bubble teams you listed. GBO!

Tennessee Volunteers
 
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#42
#42
volfan199 said:
Sorry to be that guy.

Going off Kenpom, the odds of winning at least 2 from the next 3 are:
(0.72 * 0.33 * 0.53) + //lose first game and then win next two
(0.28 * 0.33) + //win first game, win second game
(0.28 * 0.67 * 0.53) //win first game, lose second game, win third game =
0.3178

If we set Arkansas to be 50-50 we get the following:
(0.72 * 0.5 * 0.53) +
(0.28 * 0.5) + (0.5 * 0.67 * 0.53) =
0.5084

I think that math checks out and you can represent it as a simple markov chain. Anyways, gonna go back to lurking now.
Click to expand...
Ok didn’t include the odds of wining all 3. So 32% is right. The second one isn’t correct. It would make it 40.5%
 
#44
#44
AirForceVol74 said:
I understand what you are saying with the 17 wins but we have blown some games that we really needed in the win column...@Georgia, TAMU, and @South Carolina are bad losses that if we wanted in the tourney we needed to win. I like this website, it breaks downs chances of making tourney by if we win this many games..currently if we end up with 17 wins then we have 5.5% chance to make the tourney and that takes into consideration all of the bubble teams you listed. GBO!

Tennessee Volunteers
Click to expand...

@SC was a Q1 loss, @UGA was a Q2 loss...neither can remotely be considered “bad losses”.
 
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#45
#45
bleedingTNorange said:
We have 5 Q1 games upcoming to close out the year, we are a combined 6-10 in Q1&Q2 games so far this year.

Other bubble teams...

Oklahoma 9-10
Purdue 7-11
Georgetown 9-10
Indiana 6-9
—————————————
Arkansas 4-10
Stanford 4-8
Mississippi State 5-7
Alabama 6-10
North Carolina State 7-6
Minnesota 6-12
Click to expand...

While our intent was to schedule a Top 5 schedule, we are currently in the 50s in SOS. This number will probably end up in 30s. The only at large teams to get in with 15 losses were Vandy (#1 SOS) in 17 and Bama (#3 SOS) in 18. To be in the discussion, I think we need the 18th regular season win since that will give us our first win over guaranteed team in tourney.

I hope the committee will take into account the intent of our schedule but at the end of the day, the USC and AM losses plus 5/7 of our non-conference underperforming/imploding will relegate us to the NIT
 
#46
#46
bleedingTNorange said:
@SC was a Q1 loss, @UGA was a Q2 loss...neither can remotely be considered “bad losses”.
Click to expand...
But if you want to be selected over teams that are also on the bubble you need to beat a 12-13 Georgia team and a South Carolina team that lost to Stetson at home. "Bad Losses IMO" Also when you start comparing resumes with other bubble teams then a 2-7 Q1 record for the Vols isn't going to get it done. So to your original point that 17 wins will get us into consideration...I disagree...we have put ourselves in a very bad position with games that we should have won. WE at least have to win 18 in the regular season and that still may not be enough. GBO!
 
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#47
#47
AirForceVol74 said:
But if you want to be selected over teams that are also on the bubble you need to beat a 12-13 Georgia team and a South Carolina team that lost to Stetson at home. "Bad Losses IMO" GBO!
Click to expand...


Meh


You realize usce beat the defending national champion and Kentucky don’t you ?
 
#49
#49
bleedingTNorange said:
I disagree, and past results and current projections agree with my opinion...our computer numbers are going to change a lot win or lose given the quality of opponents upcoming.
Click to expand...

Let's say we beat Arky and UF and lose the other 3 and we are 17-14 and then we go 1-1 in the SECT. We are 18-15. How many at-large teams in history have the following:
1. No wins over surefire NCAA team
2. 15 losses
3. SOS outside the Top 10

I'll save you the trouble: 0
 
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#50
#50
AirForceVol74 said:
But if you want to be selected over teams that are also on the bubble you need to beat a 12-13 Georgia team and a South Carolina team that lost to Stetson at home. "Bad Losses IMO" GBO!
Click to expand...

I don't think the committee looks at much beyond the numbers. But the issue is that other bubble teams are just as flawed. Minnesota has losses to Utah and Depaul and OU. Indiana has a loss at home to Arkansas, but their OOC schedule was terrible. NC State has two losses to GTech and to Clemson and BC. OU has losses to Iowa State, Stanford, and Kansas State. Bama has losses to Penn, Iowa State, and Arkansas. Florida has losses to Missouri and UConn. They are all bubble teams for a reason.
 
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